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Grant No 01UN0601A, B

An Integrative Approach to Assess Externalities: Combining Ecological-Economic Modelling and Choice Experiments – the Context of On-Shore Wind Energy Supply.

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Grant No 01UN0601A, B

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  1. An Integrative Approach to Assess Externalities: Combining Ecological-Economic Modelling and Choice Experiments– the Context of On-Shore Wind Energy Supply Cornelia Ohl*, Jürgen Meyerhoff#* Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig# Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin) Grant No 01UN0601A, B

  2. Overview • The Project • First Results • Outlook

  3. The Project: Background Not in my backyard CO2-emmissions and running out of resources positive negative Global Climate Change Impacts on Nature Windenergy

  4. The Project: Goals • Quantifying externalities of wind energy supply with the help of Choice Experiments (CE) and an Ecological-Economic Modelling (EEM) procedure. • Identification, Evaluation and Visualisationof alternative land use options. • Support site selection for the installation of wind power plants

  5. The Project: Modelling procedure Data on: Wind speed, Impacts on nature (esp. collision risk red kite) and humans (noise, shadow etc.). 3 representative wind mills (2MW, 3 MW, 6 MW) For each technology calcula-tion of: energy output, land consumption, collision risk red kite etc. Display of GIS – Maps Visualisation of e.g. Energy output (here: classified according to German EEG) red – low energy outputgreen - high energy output (1km grids)

  6. The Project: Identification of sites Green: Potential sites for a specific wind mill erection Red: Suitable sites from a nature conservation point of view Grey: Sites electedby regional planning bodies

  7. The Project: Choice Experiments • Characteristics of wind energy production are defined as attributes of environmental changes • Focus is on: • Height of the turbines • Seize of a wind farm • Impacts on local wildlife (collision risk red kite) • Distance to settlement areas • Cost of allocation patterns (surcharge monthly power bill) • Setting options presented to German public • Survey includes statements concerning attitudes toward wind power generation, etc. and Choice Experiments • Two representative studies (West Saxony; Northern Hesse) • Nationwide online-survey (Accessible: June to July 2008)

  8. First Results: Online-Survey Presentation of Attributes and levels

  9. First Results: Online-Survey Self selection bias • Respondents were gained through press releases and announcements on various web pages • Thus, sample is not representative for German population, e.g.: • only 20% women in sample (nationwide around 51%) • 44% of respondents buy green energy (nationwide around 5%)

  10. First Results: Online-Survey Consistency of choices Programm A presents status quo for wind power production in 2020 Each respondent was presented 4 choice cards during interview plus a fifth card with a dominant alternative

  11. First Results: Online-Survey Choice of dominant alternative • Respondents were randomly presented one of two choice cards with a dominant alternative, i.e., all attributes were at least as good as in the other alternative and at least one was better

  12. First Results: Online-Survey Effect of attribut level - Conditional logit • Apart from “Ab_150” all variables are significant at 5% level • Apart from “Hei_110” and “Hei_150” signs are as expected, e.g., price: “prei” is • negative • Negative sign for “Hei_110” and “Hei_150” indicates that people do not prefer a • move from wind mills of 200 meter heightto smaller ones

  13. First Results: Online-Survey Implicit prices based on CL • Implicit price (IP) indicates WTP for movement from one attribute level to another • IP is given by:

  14. Outlook: Evaluation of Sites Integration of Survey Results in the EE-Model Goal: Sustainable Site Selection Natur impactgreen = low Social impactgreen = low Energy outputgreen = high S e a r c h f o r c o m p r o m i s e !

  15. Outlook: Site Selection with MULBO Compromise 1: Equality of goals Red: Wind mill erection (Typ I) not allowed by legislation Green:Potential sites for wind power generation as selected by MULBO Blue: Sites selected by regional planning bodies

  16. Thank you for attention! Websites: http://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=14638 http://www.landschaftsoekonomie.tu-berlin.de/8359.html

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