Catastrophic Risk Assessment for Preparedness

1. Catastrophic Risk Assessment for Preparedness Inderjit Claire Vice President Sales, RMSI October 2007 Delivering a world of solutions

2. Risk Assessment Hazard Risk Management Framework Emergency Preparedness • Emergency Response Planning • Exercises • Public Awareness • Communication and Information Management Systems (IMS) • Technical Emergency Response Capacity Institutional Capacity Building • Community Participation • Legislative Framework • Training, Education and knowledge Sharing • Decentralized Emergency Management System • International Cooperation • Catastrophe Risk Financing • Ex-Ante Funding Arrangements • Catastrophe Insurance Pools • Reserve Funds • Contingent Capital Facility • Risk Mitigation Investments • Warning and Monitoring Systems • Hazard Mapping and Land Use Planning • Code Refinement and Enforcement • Hazard Specific Risk Mitigation

3. Vulnerability Assessment HAZARD ZONATION HAZARDS Persons Structures ELEMENTS AT RISK Landuse Activities & Functions VULNERABILITY Human Vulnerability VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Structural Vulnerability Land Vulnerability RISK ASSESSMENT Functional Vulnerability

4. $ Loss Calculate Flood Depths Quantify Financial Loss Define Event Stochastic Module Hazard Module Vulnerability Module Financial Module Modeling Framework Calculate Damage

5. Project Outline Objective: To develop earthquake and flood models based on the hazard characteristics and nature of housing stock in Romania for computing loss potentials associated with housing stock in Romania. Elements at risk: Residential buildings excluding contents, appurtenances and temporary accommodation. Perils: Earthquake and Flood. Flood model includes risk due to flash floods, failure or over-topping of dykes, failure of large dams. Model scope and resolution: The models cover the entire country. The resolution used is based on suitability for implementing and monitoring the Romanian Catastrophe Insurance Scheme and for mitigation planning. Software features: Earthquake and Flood risk models implemented as software for use by administrators and insurance specialists.

6. Generation of stochastic events 25 Seismic Area Sources Seismic area sources are converted into 238 fault lines/segments Each fault line can produce events ranging from Mw 5.0 to Mmax 1706 Stochastic events are generated at increment of magnitude Mw 0.25

7. PGA return period map

8. Flood Depth & Extent comparison

9. Flood Extent map

10. Residential Building Exposure Classification

11. Earthquake Vulnerability curves

12. Flood Vulnerability curves

13. Residential Exposure by Commune - EQ

14. Residential Exposure by Commune - Flood

15. Modeled Total and Insured earthquake loss for Romania 5% Deductibles Earthquake 100% Penetration in Romania Flood 100% Penetration in Romania

16. Modeled Total and Insured earthquake loss for Romania 10 % Deductibles Earthquake 60% in Bucharest and 40 % Rest Romania Flood 60% in Bucharest and 40 % Rest Romania

17. Emergency Preparedness Planning • Earthquake estimation loss model to evaluate earthquake risks for better risk management • The software tool enables the users and decision makers to: • Assess damages • Prioritize and plan relief and rehabilitation requirements • Prepare and train emergency workers • Prepare action plans regarding essential and strategic facilities • Import new earthquake scenarios data and visualize their impact • Powerful Interactive Mapping Tools & Comprehensive Reports

18. Intervention Priority For Commercial Buildings Priority of rescue and rehabilitation work

19. Reports For Commercial Buildings County name Locality name Type of construction Number of stories Total number of buildings Number of buildings affected Number of buildings collapsed

20. Reports for Chemical Facilities County name Location name Chemical plant name Name of chemical Type of chemical Whether the facility is affected Probability of accident

21. Inderjit.Claire@rmsi.com www.rmsi.com