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Understanding and Utilizing Today ’ s Real Estate Data

Understanding and Utilizing Today ’ s Real Estate Data. MATT Dollinger. Why Matt?. KCM Divided into Three Sections. Existing Home Sales. S&P Case Shiller 10/2013. Pending Home Sales. 100 = Historically Healthy Level. NAR 10/2013. Regional Home Prices (year-over-year).

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Understanding and Utilizing Today ’ s Real Estate Data

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  1. Understanding and UtilizingToday’s Real Estate Data

  2. MATT Dollinger Why Matt?

  3. KCM Divided into Three Sections

  4. Existing Home Sales S&P Case Shiller 10/2013

  5. Pending Home Sales 100 = Historically Healthy Level NAR 10/2013

  6. Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2013 2Q HPI Report

  7. State Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2013 2Q HPI Report

  8. “The emerging slowdown in home purchases appears to be largely seasonal.” Thomas Popik Research Director for the HousingPulse survey

  9. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 10/2013

  10. Year-over-Year Inventory Levels NAR 10/2013

  11. Year-over-Year Change in Prices S&P Case Shiller 10/2013

  12. Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. “Asking home prices give us the first look at where home sale prices are headed, and they point to a slowdown. After rising rapidly in the first half of 2013, asking prices in two thirds of the largest metros are cooling. In fact, asking prices are falling – not just rising more slowly – in 11 of the 100 largest metros, the most markets to see prices slip in six months.” Jed Kolko Trulia’s Chief Economist

  13. Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. “The rapid price gains of the last year cannot be sustained and we expect the pace to decline substantially…A slower pace is a positive for housing demand and will help to keep affordability from further eroding.” Moody’s Analytics

  14. Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. “If home values continued to rise as they have, relatively unchecked, we would almost certainly be headed into another bubble cycle, and nobody wants that…This moderation should help consumers feel more at ease in their decisions to buy and sell, and will help keep the market balanced.” Stan Humphries Chief Economist for Zillow

  15. Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. "I define a bubble as a time when people have extravagant expectations, and the expectations are driving home price increases. We don't have the mindset of earlier this century… Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years." Robert Shiller Nobel Prize Winning Economist

  16. ta·per ˈtāpər/ Verb – to diminish or reduce

  17. Rate Movement 30 Year Fixed Rate Fed announces not to taper bond purchases Increase in mortgage rates building up to Fed announcement Decrease in mortgage rates since Fed announcement Freddie Mac 10/2013

  18. “The MBA believes rates will keep pushing upward, going… well above 5%.” HousingWire 10/2013

  19. Mortgage Rate Projections

  20. Buyer’s Purchasing Power RATE Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

  21. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History January 2012 – November 2013 Federal Reserve 11/2013

  22. RETURN ON INVESTMENT January 2000 – November 2013 MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

  23. Home Price Expectation Survey A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists.

  24. Average Annual Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

  25. Home Price Expectation Survey Projected Percentage Increase Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

  26. Cumulative Appreciation by 2018 Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

  27. Thinking about moving up to the home of your dreams?

  28. The Move-Up Seller

  29. The Move-Up Seller

  30. Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. “You can have brilliant ideas, but if you can't get them across, your ideas won't get you anywhere.” Lee Iacocca

  31. Average Annual APPRECIATION 7.9% 5.1% 3.6% 4.2% RECOVERY TO DATE PROJECTED NOW to 2018 Pre-BUBBLE BUBBLE BUST -5.9% Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

  32. PROJECTED Percentage Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

  33. Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018 40.1% 28% 23.7% 16.8% Pre-Bubble Trend All Projections Bulls Bears Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

  34. Typical Sold Price* FSBO vs. Agent $215K $175K By FSBO By AGENT *The ‘typical’ price is actually the average price in the survey. However, studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.

  35. Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. “In my opinion, Keeping Current Matters is THE easiest, most reliable and comprehensive source for national real estate data today.”

  36. Understanding and UtilizingToday’s Real Estate Data

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