Wind and emission reductions Moving to a 30% target

1. Wind and emission reductions Moving to a 30% target Rémi GruetClimate Change Advisor European Wind Energy Association Date

2. Outline of presentation • State of play on Climate • Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU • Global Wind and a new climate agreement • Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe Conlusions

3. Which place for wind in the climate debate? • State of debate • Industry calling for 20% reduction max • NGOs calling for environmental integrity – 40% • Press relaying climate negationism • Uncertainty of process: COP15, US climate bill, Yvo leaving • Wind message: reducing emissions is possible ! • Wind is growing, innovating, available today, etc… • Wind makes a substantial % of EU reductions

4. Outline of presentation • State of play on Climate • Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU • Global Wind and a new climate agreement • Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe Conlusions

5. EWEA 2020 Scenario – 230GW of EU wind capacity

6. More wind – less CO ₂ • Gas, coal and oil plants produce on av. 666 gCO2/kWh • Wind production avoids 2009: 163 TWh 106 Mt CO2 2012: 234 TWh 146 Mt CO2 2020: 582 TWh 333 Mt CO2 • Kyoto Protocol EU target 2008-2012 = 7.8% • 450 MtCO2e per year below 1990 emissions • EU Climate package target by 2020 = 20%  1160 MtCO2e in 2020 below 1990 emissions Source: DG TREN: Trends to 2030 - EWEA, Pure Power (Oct 2009)

7. 23% of the EU’s Kyoto target EU - Wind power will avoid as much CO2 as... 2009 2012 2020 32% of the EU’s Kyoto target 29% of the EU’s 2020 target (20%)

8. EU 2020 - Wind power will avoid as much CO2 as... -20% scenario -30% scenario 29% of EU target 19% of EU target

9. 60% offsets in the climate package mean that wind will avoid 73% of EU domestic target 48% of EU domestic target 20% scenario 30% scenario

10. 56% RES domestically + 60% potential offsets = 16% increase in other sectors? 100% of domestic reductions done by Renewables by 2020 ? -20 % Scenario -30 % Scenario 40% RES domestically + 60% potential offsets = 0% reduction in other sectors?

11. EU ETS – New wind power (built after 2005) will avoid the equivalent of... Annual ETS effort in 2020 : 2005 emissions = 2177 Mt 2020 target = 1720 Mt 2020 ETS effort = 457 Mt Wind built 2005-2020 = 273 Mt Wind = 60% of ETS effort1 Wind = 120% of ETS domestic effort1 1. For a 20% target - considering constant electricity consumption

12. EU 2020 – Wind power versus car emissions EU fleet - 214 million cars EU 2012 – Wind avoids 146 MtCO2, eq. to  46 million cars  20% of EU fleet ! EU 2020 – wind avoids 333 MtCO2, eq. to  168 million cars  80% of EU fleet !

13. Outline of presentation • State of play on Climate • Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU • Global Wind and a new climate agreement • Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe Conlusions

14. At global level - Wind’s contribution to pledges for Copenhagen Current UNFCCC pledges + USA climate bill: 17% of 2005 emissions = aggregated Annex I pledges 12%-19% of 1990 emissions Versus Global Wind in 2020 • 1081 GW installed capacity • 2650 TWh produced  1591 Mt CO2 avoided -22 to 25% Source: UNFCCC Secretariat – FCCC/KP/AWG/2009/10/Add.4/Rev.2

15. 21% of Annex I 2008 Kyoto target Annex I - Global Wind in 2020 will avoid… 2009 2012 2020 44% of Annex I 2012 Kyoto target 70% of Annex I 2020 pledges (12%)

16. 21% of Annex I 2009 Kyoto target Annex I - Global Wind in 2020 will avoid… 2009 2012 2020 44% of Annex I 2012 Kyoto target 44% of Annex I 2020 pledges (19%)

17. Outline of presentation • State of play on Climate • Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU • Global Wind and a new climate agreement • Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe Conlusions

18. USA-China-India – target or deviation from BAU • For a 50% chance to stay below 2°C increase… • Developed countries 25%-40% from 1990 by 2020 • Developing countries 15-30% deviation from BAU • Projections for 2020 emissions in energy sector (Mt) Source: World Resource Institute – CAIT GHG Database

19. USA - Wind in 2020 will avoid as much CO₂ as 28 % of US pledge for 2020 US pledge = 17% from 2005 levels

20. China - 15% from BAU by 2020 (energy) Wind power can contribute… EIA IEA POLES …20% to 26% of China’s GHG reductions

21. India - 15% from BAU by 2020 (energy) Wind power can contribute… EIA IEA POLES …46% to 74% of India’s GHG reductions

22. Conclusion • Wind will significantly reduce emissions, both • In industrialised and • In developing countries • Wind will deliver a very high share of the reduction effort  Industrialised countries must raise their pledges  More advanced developing countries should consider appropriate reductions from BAU

23. Thank you very much for your attention www.ewea.org RENEWABLE ENERGY HOUSE 63-65 RUE D’ARLON B-1040 BRUSSELS T: +32 2 546 1940 F: +32 2 546 1944 E: ewea@ewea.org

24. Additional content • Additional Climate slides • How a turbine comes together • Economics of Wind • Wind and employment • Wind innovations • EU wind map • Wind pictures

25. The « Copenhagen Accord » saving climate or saving face? • What we’ve got: • A stated objective 2°C max. temperature increase… • 2 dubious finance claims • Fast-start : 40% still missing, most of it not additional • $100bn by 2020: when, who, how, where, for what… • What we don’t have • No mid- or long term emissions reduction targets • No year for peaking emissions • No CO2 concentration target (i.e. 450ppm) • No roadmap to get any of the above

26. New institutional framework • UNFCCC • Cancun: deal or roadmap for furthernegotiations? • No otherappropriate forum • DG CLIM - Connie Hedegaard • EP audition: « I stronglybelieve, and Denmark’sexampleprovesit, thatthanks to renewables itis possible to decoupleemissionsfromdevelopment » • Impact Assessment of cost of moving to 30% • EU Parliament – resolutioncalling for 30% • “achieve domestic targets through energy savings and renewable energy sources”