[ On Concepts and Methods in Horizon Scanning: Lessons from initiating Policy Dialogues on Emerging Issues ]

1. [On Concepts and Methods in Horizon Scanning: Lessons from initiating Policy Dialogues on Emerging Issues] Effie Amanatidou, Maurits Butter, Vicente Carabias, Totti Könnölä, Miriam Leis, Ozcan Saritas, Petra Schaper-Rinkel, Victor van Rij 12-05-2011

2. Objectives of the SESTI project Researching the added value of early warning signal scanning to identify emerging issues Assessing the pro’s and con’s of several scanning methods Identifying ways to connect scanning to the policy community 2 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

3. 3 Media Voters Advisory boards Planning agencies Info and Issues Lobbyists Decisions for the Future SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

4. Weak signals and other concepts Trend Trend ws: weak signal wc: wildcard Trend ws ws wc ws wc Emergingissues hype wc ws hype Past Present Future SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

5. From weak signals toemerging issues Internet offer $100 internet course Emerging issue Weak signals ………. Shift to the privitization of education ……. …… Emerging issue Weak signals ………. Disruption of the pension system Research paper 30% extension of life mice SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

6. Why should we look for emerging issues? Much info and many issues are biased by their bringers, even scientific advice is biased by disciplinary thinking Media got a good nose for bad news and incidents, they scan the world for this (although there are some good exceptions) Most issues coming to the policy makers have a short term character While good governing needs the capacity to foresee and to anticipate Luckily politicians and policymakers have a good intuition for what the future may bring, but the knowledge they can use for this , is limited to their sources 6 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

7. Content orientation of SESTI • Focus on functional aspects of the innovation system • Focus on content Healthcare Energy To be chosen X X X Organizational changes Science and technology developments X X X X X X Public perception SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

8. Overall process of scanning Weak signalsscanning Weak signals(long list) Signaltransformation Issueinterpretation Emergingissues Key emergingissues Weak signalsassessment Key signals (short list) SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

9. Approach 3 4 5 Scanning foremergingissues Processinginformation In depth analysis 1 Projectstart up 2 WikiHub 6 7 Knowledgedissemination Workshops SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

10. SESTI project Are there ways to improve the information basis to identify the most important future issues that need policy attention today? Are there early warning (weak) signals that can be used to identify them? If so where and how to find them and how to use them to feed them into the policymakers agenda? 10 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

11. Definition and criteria emerging issue Emerging issues are storylines (Future Narratives) with: High impact (on society, economy, ecology and the domain) Plausible storyline (including factual basis –reliable sources ) Novelty (is the issue described really new for the policy makers) Emotional aspects and critical aspects (does the issue appeal or concern emotional and or ethical legal aspects) Interests at stake (commonalities and or conflicts) Changeability (Can the story or its impact be altered by human action) Policy relevance (does the issue relate to present day decision making and action and on different levels) 11 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

12. Sources and tools for scanning Non participative / (digital) written sources Systematic manual scanning (internet –search engines) Literature study Text mining Participative / stakeholders & experts Survey Wiki Blogs/linked In /and others like Facebook Twitter Workshops etc 12 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

13. Systematic Internet scanning 13 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference • Internet Search on internet using search engines provided by : google / bing • Google selects all pages (texts & vids) with the “search string” • sorts the pages that are most connected/central Needed: • Qualified scanners (fast interpretation) • Frame of reference (coordinates/for which domain does the scan take place/criteria) • Intelligent questions • Workshops

14. SESTI-manual scanning 14 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

15. = Primary signal (full or partial future issue description) = Affirmative Secondary signal = Not affirmative Secondary signal = Expected affirmative signal not showing up = Analysis of Primary signal (leading to indication of Secondary signals to watch for) The principles of Issue Centered Scanning Emerging issue B B Past Present Future SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

16. Primary signal & secondary signals 16 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

17. Emerging issue A A WC Emerging issue B B ISSUE CENTERED SCANNING Hype issue C C Past Present Future SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

18. Wiki/Blog/linked In/Twitter 18 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference • An invitation is send to experts- stakeholders : Q what they see as new emerging issues /early warning signals? Needed: • own website (SESTI-wiki – blog ) or account on existing platform (Linked In , Face book, Twitter) • Wide variety, qualified willing contribuants • Open /structured set up • Analysts to interpret data (text mining)

19. SESTI Wiki – for emerging issues 19 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

20. SESTI Blog /Linked In Blog/Twitter 20 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

21. Emerging issue A Emerging issue C WC Emerging issue F Hype issue D EXPLORATORY SCANNING Past Present Future SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

22. Exploratory Scanning 22 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference Characteristics: • Broader scanning area scope and “bottom-up” • Information about singular events • Utilisation of foresight communities • People who are scanning for new information on a regular basis  put up in forums, blogs, discussion lists and finally twitter • Enabling of interdisciplinary discussions about credibility and potential future implications • First assessment to filter out unreliable information • Complementing with focused discussions or surveys

23. Conclusions of Exploratory Scanning 23 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference Emerging issue identification and analysis is a complex social process  Interests, agendas and selective perception need to be kept in mind Human communication with experts/scanners and clients/policy-makers is essential Quality of original source and transparency of processes impact the interpretation and conclusions Social networking can provide added value for identification and assessment of signals and emerging issues (but resource constraints exist!)

24. Conclusions of Exploratory Scanning 24 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference Different approaches can be strategically combined • broaden the spectrum of possible signals(e.g. through crowd sourcing like twitter and blogs for exploratory scanning); • improving the credibility assessment (e.g. by establishing interdisciplinary discussion groups for validation); • complementing the validation process (e.g. by performing issue-centred scans, surveys, workshops etc.) utilising automated tools for clustering and network analysis of issues; • maintaining an interaction between the clients of the analysis (e.g. decision/policy maters) and those who look for the information.

25. Experience scanning methods 25 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

26. Scanning methods tested within SESTI Participatory methods Conferences Surveys Wiki Twitter Semi-automated support Manual support Text mining Manual scanning Non-participatory methods 26 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference

27. Evaluation criteria 27 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference Policy – makers noted importance of scanning to identify: • the connections, clustering of weak signals and the degree of relevance to a specific area; • the duration of the ‘weakness’ of the signal associated also with the time the signal is observed, the origin and the novelty of the weak signals; • any rising ethical, legal, societal or cultural issues; • the existence of a strategy already concerned with the specific weak signal(s) / emerging issues by a government or industry, lobby or international organisation; • positive and negative impacts and associated policy implications; • policy recommendations.

28. Conclusions of Evaluation 28 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference Need different approaches as all have advantages and disadvantages Overall, participatory methods are of crucial importance for the last stages of the scanning process enabling verification and filtering of results as well as policy implication and recommendations. Semi-automated methods are appreciated especially those drawing on large expert communities in terms of enabling systematic scanning and retrieval of ‘inside’ information in the first scanning phases as well as in verifying the results. The value of the more ‘conventional’ methods like expert surveys, literature review and conference visits is more relevant for targeted tasks requiring expert inputs.

29. TNO: Main coordinator MinOCW: Scanning (v.vanrij@minocw.nl) AIT: Processing of information UniMan: In depth analysis IPTS: Policy workshops MCST: Knowledge dissemination SESTI-Partners [www.sesti.info] 29 SESTI presentation at the FTA 2011 conference