Presentation Transcript

1. Deforestation, Climate Change, and the Challenges of Global Environmental Law

   ABA-LSE Conference Navigating the New Green Economy London School of Economics May 23-24, 2011 William Boyd University of Colorado Law School
2. The Challenge: Keeping Terrestrial Carbon in Tropical Forests
3. Deforestation Emissions in Perspective Gt CO2/yr Sources: Deforestation emissions from IPCC 2007 WG 1 Ch. 7 & 2010 Global Carbon Project; US & China Emissions from IEA 2010 World Energy Outlook; Kyoto Commitments from EIA, IEO 2006, Ch. 7.
4. Colombia Cameroon Venezuela Nicaragua Peru Rep.Dem.Congo India Nigeria Philippines Nepal 4-2% <1% 2-1% Net CO2 Emissions from Land-Use Change in Tropical Countries 600 2000-2005 60% 500 Brazil 400 Indonesia 300 CO2 emissions (TgC y-1) 200 100 0 RA Houghton 2009, unpublished; Based on FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment
5. Deforestation in Brazil Brazil among top 5 largest global emitters if emissions from deforestation counted Under BAU 40% of Amazon deforested by 2050 Significant reductions since 2005 (67% below 1996-2005 baseline); but deforestation now going back up Source: Nepstad et al, Science 2010
6. One of the highest rates of forest loss in the world  Indonesia among top 5 largest GHG emitters if LULUCF emissions counted Deforestation of lowland forests:1985-1997 -Sumatra 61% -Kalimantan 58% -Sulawesi 89%> 20 million ha of forest has been cleared since 1985> Central government announced logging moratorium last week – very controversial Deforestation in Indonesia
7. Tropical Forest “Crisis” – Perennial International Concern Since Early 1980s Biodiversity & North/South linkages as the dominant framings of the problem
8. BUT . . . Past Efforts To Halt Tropical Deforestation Have Not Worked Tropical Forestry Action Plan (TFAP) Debt-for-Nature Swaps International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) Convention on Biological Diversity Forest Certification Schemes World Commission on Forests & Sustainable Development Protected Areas UN Forum on Forests
9. Re-Framing Tropical Deforestation as Part of Climate Challenge Failure to agree upon a Global Forests Convention at 1992 UNCED Early IPCC Assessments discuss emissions from deforestation & land use 1992 - UNFCCC references emissions from land use and deforestation 1997 - Kyoto Protocol references emissions from land use and deforestation BUT . . . COP 7 Marrakesh Accords (2001) excluded emissions from deforestation in developing countries from 1st Kyoto Commitment period – 2008-2012 2005 – Coalition for Rainforest Nations puts REDD on the UNFCCC agenda
10. REDD: The Basic Idea Beyond projects: REDD is about reducing emissions from the forest sector based on jurisdiction-wide efforts measured against national and/or subnational reference levels Avoided emissions: REDD is tied to the value of avoided emissions, NOT to the value of existing carbon stocks – BUT this must translate into incentives to protect existing forest stocks Pay-for-performance: REDD seeks to mobilize carbon finance from public and private sources on a “pay-for-performance” basis Co-benefits: REDD could generate critical social and environmental co-benefits – BUT safeguards and governance issues very challenging NOT easy, cheap, or available now!
11. Making deforestation an object of climate governance. . . creating a new asset class. . . Understanding tropical forests as component of the global carbon cycle Mapping & Quantifying forest carbon Translating forest carbon into compliance carbon
12. New forms of calculability: remote sensing & “wall-to-wall” forest carbon mapping Source: Asner, ERL 2009
13. Making things the same: translating forest carbon into compliance carbon Compliance-grade CO2eq
14. REDD+ & UNFCCC Process. . . all SBSTA, all the time . . . REDD+ Mechanism? Post-2012 Agreement? SBSTA Process SBSTA Process 2010 Cancún Agreements SBSTA Process 2009 Copenhagen Accord 2007 Bali Action Plan SBSTA Process 2005 Montreal COP What does an international “REDD+ Mechanism” look like in the absence of a robust post-2012 Climate agreement?
15. International Finance for REDD+ . . . billions committed . . . But how long will public money last? Can it be deployed effectively?Do recipient governments have sufficient absorptive capacity? What impacts on forest governance? What impacts on communities and local forest-dependent people
16. REDD+ & Non-UNFCCC Processes: California & the Governors’ Climate & Forests Task Force (GCF)
17. GCF & Subnational REDD+ Frameworks Crediting pathways State-level accounting Project nesting architectures Monitoring, reporting & verification (MRV) State-level performance Nested project performance REDD Infrastructure REDD Strategy Legal frameworks Registries Safeguards Environmental Free prior informed consent Protection of rights/interests Benefit sharing Multi-stakeholder processes Enforceability Linkage arrangements
18. REDD+ & Non-UNFCCC Processes: Commodity Roundtables & Sustainable Supply Chains
19. New forms of value de-coupling forest carbon from forest ecosystems Long-term carbon rights Long-term forest Protection obligations
20. De-NationalizingForest Governance. . . and the changing natures of forest law. . . Global REDDInitiatives National Administrative Capacities National Forest Governance State/Local Forest Governance
21. The bottom line: REDD will surely fail if it does not ensure protection of rights/interests & deliver benefits to local communities
22. The Window is Closing: Global Commodity Prices Are Rising Again Global Commodity Price Index