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Interaction of Global Environmental Stressors: Climate Change and Species Invasion

Interaction of Global Environmental Stressors: Climate Change and Species Invasion. Hugh MacIsaac Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research University of Windsor. Predicted relative changes in biodiversity in 2100. Relative change in diversity. Land Use. Climate Change. N Deposition.

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Interaction of Global Environmental Stressors: Climate Change and Species Invasion

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  1. Interaction of Global Environmental Stressors: Climate Change and Species Invasion Hugh MacIsaac Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research University of Windsor

  2. Predicted relative changes in biodiversity in 2100 Relative change in diversity Land Use Climate Change N Deposition Biotic Exchange Atmospheric CO 2 Sala et al. (2000), Science

  3. Stressors of Aquatic Ecosystems • Over harvesting • Chemical Pollution • Climate Change • Habitat Changes and Destruction • Species Introduction } stressors may interact

  4. How will Distribution Change Occur? Leading Edge, Stratified Dispersal Leading Edge, Frontal Growth Trailing Edge Stable Edge

  5. Life at the Edge: Margins Count Hampe et al. 2005, Ecol. Lett.

  6. Modeling Range Change: Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling Distribution changes of invasive plants assessed under 10 different Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models by 2100 using the IPCC SRESa1b 'middle of the road', balanced energy scenario Bradley et al. 2009, Glob. Change Biol.

  7. Cheatgrass, Bromus tectorum x x x Range should shift NE Bradley et al. 2009, Glob. Change Biol.

  8. Leafy Spurge, Euphorbia esula x x x Range should decline, move farther into Canada Important Assumption: neither evolution nor dispersal opportunities change, only the environment Bradley et al. 2009, Glob. Change Biol.

  9. Forecasting distribution change of 1066 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates • Changes projected in 2050 relative to 2001-2005 (mean) • Assumes stabilization of CO2 at high (720ppm) level (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab) • Changes are based upon current distribution and assumed habitat preference using dynamic bioclimatic envelope model Cheung et al. 2009, Fish & Fisheries

  10. Thermal changes in smallmouth bass habitat (Sharma et al. 2007, Glob. Change Biol.) Current surface water temp (L) and thermally suitable smallmouth bass habitat (R) July 2100 surface water temp (L) and thermally suitable smallmouth bass habitat (R) under CGCM2-A2 July 2100 surface water temp (L) and thermally suitable smallmouth bass habitat (R) under CGCM2-B2

  11. Pacific diatom Neodenticula seminae • Species found in continuous plankton recorder samples in Labrador Sea in 1999 for the 1st time in 800,000 years • Pacific flows into the NW Atlantic were elevated the previous year Corbyn 2007, Nature; Reid et al. 2007, Glob. Change Biol.

  12. Is there a template we can use to determine whether climate change will alter species invasion patterns? Cases just highlighted focus solely on changes in environmental suitability

  13. Model to Predict Invasions A B C D E F G Species Pool Transport (Dispersal) Filter Physiological Filter (+/-) Biotic Filter (+/-) Natural Colonization E

  14. Model to Predict Invasions Human A B C D E F G Introduction Species Pool Transport (Dispersal) Filter Physiological Filter (+/-) Biotic Filter (+/-) Natural Colonization E G Founding Invasive Population

  15. Propagule Pressure • number of introduction events • number of propagules introduced per event • condition of the propagules Propagule pressure is a logical first step toward predicting invasion risk

  16. Determinants of Invasion Success 1) Hayes & Barry (2008, Biol. Invas.) reported invasion success determined by: • climate/habitat match • history of invasiveness • propagule pressure 2) Colautti et al. (2006, Biol. Invas.) reported invasion success determined by: • propagule pressure • history of invasiveness • physiological tolerance (fishes) • disturbance

  17. Sequential Processes to Consider 1) Changes in Propagule Pressure • changes in natural dispersal • changes in human-mediated dispersal 2) Changes in Environmental Suitability • previously unsuitable habitat is now suitable 3) Changes in Ecological Suitability • some invaders may benefit from previous invaders

  18. Changes in Natural Dispersal At least 77 Molluscan lineages may invade the North Atlantic from the North Pacific as the Arctic Ocean warms and food supply is enhanced Vermeij & Roopnarine 2008, Science

  19. Pacific diatom Neodenticula seminae • Authors attribute spread to retreat of pack ice through the Canadian archipelago during summer 1998; • open water would facilitate algal proliferation and natural spread; • Discount ballast water release as few ships move through and the location of the find is not where releases would be expected to occur Corbyn 2007, Nature; Reid et al. 2007, Glob. Change Biol.

  20. Changes in Human Mediated Dispersal • ballast water carried when cargo isn't; • A leading cause of species introduction globally • Responsible for >55% of Great Lakes invasions (U.S. NAS, 2008)

  21. Predicting Aedes albopictus invasions using vectors and climate Native region: red Introduced: orange Intercepted: yellow Traffic to invaded areas was 2x higher than to non-invaded areas with similar climate Climate matching of ports (top) and airports (bottom) Tatem et al. 2006, PNAS

  22. Vessel Arrivals in Northern Ports (F. Chan, unpubl.) • ballast discharge pattern generally consistent with traffic • unexchanged foreign and domestic ballast is discharged into the arctic • tranoceanic vessels are required to exchange ballast before discharging into Canadian waters, reducing risk • many prospective source ports of transoceanic vessels lie far south, thus ballast-borne species would still face considerable physiological pressures to establishment

  23. Hull Scrapings and Video Surveys: Ships from across Eastern, Western Canada and the Great Lakes Dr. F. Sylvester

  24. Surprises can still occur: Environmental Niche Modeling of Chinese Mitten Crabs in Europe • 84% of occurrences in Europe were in areas where they were predicted to survive well • 4% of occurrences were in northern areas not predicted to be suitable. Is this a cold water genotype? Herborg et al., 2007, Cons. Biol.

  25. Summary • Climate change will afford many opportunities for species to reach new habitat as natural and human-assisted dispersal change • Thus, a focus on vectors - both natural and manmade - should be the first priority • In addition, species may find habitats more hospitable than in past, thus establishment success may be higher (species-specific) • While not addressed here, local communities may either enhance or retard invasion success (species-specific)

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