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San Juan EAC 8-hr Ozone Study: Technical Progress Report—16 Jul ‘02

San Juan EAC 8-hr Ozone Study: Technical Progress Report—16 Jul ‘02. T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally Alpine Geophysics, LLC Ft. Wright, KY Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corp Novato, CA Farmington, NM 16 July 2003. Overview. Science Team EPA EAC Modeling Requirements

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San Juan EAC 8-hr Ozone Study: Technical Progress Report—16 Jul ‘02

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  1. San Juan EAC 8-hr Ozone Study: Technical Progress Report—16 Jul ‘02 T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally Alpine Geophysics, LLC Ft. Wright, KY Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corp Novato, CA Farmington, NM 16 July 2003

  2. Overview • Science Team • EPA EAC Modeling Requirements • San Juan Ozone Modeling Protocol • Ozone Modeling Study Schedule • Modeling Episodes • Emissions, Meteorological and Ozone Modeling Domains • Emissions Modeling • Meteorological Modeling • Photochemical Modeling • Project Status

  3. Science Team Alpine Geophysics, LLCENVIRON Int. Corp. Dennis McNally Gerald Mansell Cyndi Loomis Ed Tai T. W. Tesche (Co-PI) Ralph Morris (Co-PI)

  4. EAC Requirements • Development of emissions inventories and 8-hr photochemical modeling(Alpine/ENVIRON) • Adoption of 8-hr ozone control strategies that demonstrate attainment(Alpine/ENVIRON) • Completion and adoption of the early action SIP revision • Attainment not later than December 31, 2007 • Post-attainment demonstration and plan updates

  5. EAC Requirements (concluded) • Must follow current EPA modeling guidance for 8-hr ozone EAC attainment demonstrations • Must assess the impacts of transported ozone and precursors on local and downwind areas

  6. Protocol for the San Juan8-Hour EAC Modeling • Requirements for Modeling Protocol in EPA Guidance documents: • EPA 8-Hour Ozone Guidance (EPA, 1999, 2003) • Guidelines for Regulatory Application of the UAM (EPA, 1991)

  7. Modeling Protocol Topics • Schedule, Deliverables, Study Participants, and Milestones • Model Selection and Justification • Episode Selection and Conceptual Model Development • Modeling and Analysis Domain Specification • Identification of Available Data • Input Data Preparation Procedures • Quality Assurance Activities • Model Performance Evaluation Methods and Acceptance Criteria • Future-Year Modeling Scenarios and Methods • 8-hr Ozone Attainment Demonstration and “Weight of Evidence” analyses • Technology Transfer (reports, data sets, models, etc) • Participation in the EAC public review process

  8. Study Schedule

  9. Episode Selection Methodology • Examine publicly-available ozone data from years 1999 to 2002 • Tabulate all days with 8-hour ozone concentrations greater than 75 ppb • Identify candidate episodes from 1999-2002 based on available data (i.e., Substation and Bloomfield monitors) • Perform trajectory modeling with NOAA HYSPLIT model to: • Identify potential local versus transport ozone episodes • Identify general direction of flows over the Four Corners region • Help classify episodes into distinct meteorological regimes • Select episode(s) that best fulfills EPA 8-hr EAC regulatory requirements

  10. Location of Ozone Monitors

  11. Ozone Modeling Episodes • ‘Summer ’02 Regional Episode’ • 3 June – 19 July 2002 (36/12 km grid domains) • Embedded Intensive Ozone Episodes • 5-8 June 2003 • 17-19 June 2002 • 1-2 July 2002 • 17-18 July 2002

  12. 8-hr Ozone Episodes (1999-2002) 2000-2002 DV=76.3 ppb

  13. 8-hr Ozone Days (Summer ’02) 2000-2002 DV=76.3 ppb

  14. Embedded Ozone Episodes (Summer ’02) 2000-2002 DV=76.3 ppb

  15. 36-Hour Back Trajectories to Farmington on 5 and 7 June 2002 5 June 2002 7 June 2002

  16. Special Episode Considerations • Impact of Wildfires • Occurrence of Stagnation Conditions in the local (i.e., Farmington-Bloomfield-Aztec) area • Availability of supplemental ‘non-regulatory’ monitoring data • Integration with Denver EAC modeling

  17. Southwestern Wild Fire Events During Summer ‘02

  18. Satellite Imagery of Wild Fire Complexes on 19 June ‘02 Fires burning on 19 June ’02 in Colorado and northern New Mexico. Major fires in Colorado included the Hayman and Missionary Ridge complexes. Hayman Fire Missionary Ridge Fire

  19. Emissions Model Selection Role of Emission Processors • Temporally distribute emissions • Spatially distribute emissions both horizontally and vertically • Speciate emissions for us in chemical mechanisms • Format data for input into photochemical model • MOBILE 6 and NONROAD Interface

  20. Available Emissions Models • Emissions Processor Models – • EPS2x(Used in many SIPs, medium speed, straight forward, has good QA/QC routines) • Other Emission Processors Considered • SMOKE (fast processor, still undergoing development, lacks QA/QC routines) • EMS-2003 (SAS, ARC-INFO licenses and expertise needed, slower)

  21. Emissions Data Sources • Inside New Mexico • NMED • NMOGA • Outside New Mexico • U.S. EPA NEI 99 • Colorado Department of Public Health (Denver EAC) • Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP)

  22. Colorado Flash Emission Points from Oil and Gas Wells

  23. Meteorological Model Selection • MM5 • Successfully used in 1-hr and 8-hr Ozone SIP modeling in other areas • State-of-Science • Two-way grid nesting • Publicly available with no restriction • CSU-RAMS • License, public-domain issue

  24. Meteorological Modeling Strategy • Full set of three-dimensional, time-dependent meteorological fields required by the emissions and photochemical model • MM5 exercised with 36/12/4 km one-way nesting • Lambert-Conformal Projection (LCP) • Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA) • MM5 performance evaluation using accepted statistical programs and graphics programs; • MM5 performance compared with other regulatory studies • Meteorological Model Evaluation Report (Task 3) presenting results of the data base development, performance evaluation findings, and conclusions (delivered 30 September ’03) • Meteorological fields will be processed for CAMx using MM5CAMx.

  25. Meteorological Modeling Domain 4 km Grid 12 km Grid 36 km Grid

  26. MM5 Results on 12 km San Juan Grid for Summer ’02 Episode

  27. Photochemical Model Selection • CAMx (ver 4) selected • ‘State-of-science’ ozone and fine particulate (PM) model • Employs two-way nesting, “probing tools” • Used for several 8-hr EAC’s and O3 SIPs • Other Models Considered • Models-3/CMAQ (limited SIP use, time consuming) • UAM-IV (old algorithms and out of date science) • UAM-V (proprietary issues) • MAQSIP (limited SIP use, out of date science) • CALGRID (limited SIP use, out of date science) • SAQM (no SIP use, not used outside of CA)

  28. Photochemical Modeling Strategy • CAMx (ver 4) photochemical grid model is primary model (CMAQ available if needed) • 36/12/4 km grid nesting to treat local sources (e.g., oil and gas wells, tanks) • Updated CB-IV regulatory chemistry • Boundary Conditions (BCs) on outer 36-km grid derived from adjacent regional modeling studies results (WRAP, Denver EAC, HGA, SCAQS) • MM5CAMx to process MM5 fields • CAMx performance evaluation following EPA Guidance and current ‘science’ recommendations

  29. Air Quality Modeling Domain 4 km Grid 12 km Grid 36 km Grid

  30. CAMx Model Data Requirements • Meteorological input files • wind • temperature • water-vapor concentration • pressure • vertical diffusivity (effective mixing height) • cloud cover • rainfall rate

  31. CAMx Data Requirements (cont.) • Emissions input files • Low-level anthropogenic emissions • point sources (including oil and gas sources) • area sources (including non-road sources) • on-road motor-vehicles • Elevated point source emissions (e.g. electric generating units) • Biogenic emissions • NOx • VOCs

  32. CAMx Data Requirements (conc.) • Air quality related input files • initial conditions • boundary conditions • Chemistry input files • chemical reaction rates • photolysis rates • Geographic/other input files • land-use • albedo, haze, and ozone column

  33. Project Status • Project Planning and Peer-Review • Task 1: Episode Selection/Conceptual Model Report Delivered 17 June ’03 • Task 2: San Juan Modeling Protocol Delivered 16 June ’03 • Task 1: Public Meeting Today – 16 July ’03 • Meteorological Modeling • MM5 36/12 km Modeling for full Summer ’02 Episode Completed • MM5 4 km Modeling for Episodes 1 thru 4 In execution • MM5 Model Evaluation Report(Task 3) In preparation • Emissions Modeling • Developing surrogate distributions fore 36/12/4 km domains • Assembling land use/land cover and meteorological data for biogenic emissions modeling • Air Quality Modeling • Requested ozone/met data and monitoring data QA reports from Ute Tribe • Obtained TOMS satellite and AIRS ozone data • Developing Land Use data for 36/12/4 km domains

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