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WP1 discussions

WP1 discussions. Jens and Johanna. Improving long range forecast skill of risks for hazardous weather and climate events. Task 1.1 Extremes at different spatial and temporal scales D1.1: How to identify weather patterns associated with occurrences of extreme events in models M24

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WP1 discussions

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  1. WP1 discussions Jens and Johanna

  2. Improving long range forecast skill of risks for hazardous weather and climate events • Task 1.1 Extremes at different spatial and temporal scales • D1.1: How to identify weather patterns associated with occurrences of extreme events in models M24 • Task 1.2 Process-oriented diagnosis of weather systems • D1.1 • Task 1.3 Detection and attribution of weather systems and extremes • D1.2 Attribution of extremes to climate phenomena M48 • Task 1.4 Weather systems and extremes in seasonal prediction systems • D1.3 Quantified skill in weather patterns associated with extreme events M48 • Task 1.5 Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting of severe weather • D1.4 Predictability of marine cold air outbreaks and polar lows with dynamical s2s forecasts

  3. Improved representation of Arctic warming in predictions Extreme events Skills YOPP IPCC Better servicing of economic sectors Stakeholders Models improvements Present Future Forecasting framework Coordinated experiments Improved capacity to respond

  4. Partner involvement

  5. Our plan • Characterize extremes at different spatial and temporal scales by using a rigorous mathematical framework (extreme value theory) • Conduct a process-oriented diagnosis of weather systems associated with the occurrence of weather extremes • Detection and attribution of weather systems and extremes • Analyze weather systems and extremes in seasonal prediction systems • Transfer the results to operational use, including stakeholder contacts (with WP5)

  6. Identifiedissues • Whichextremesshouldbetreated? • Ideas offered within WP1 • In liaison with WP5 (initiated) • Technical description of models data • Data repositories or how to distribute? • Need to make visible on web page howtechnical information is handledacross the Blue-Action project • This shouldpreferabyworkbefore March

  7. Action items • Identify, explore and distribute Blue Action extremes for sharing and commenting • DMI by Mar17 • Overview of central model output, frequency, resolution, etc. • UH by Mar17 • Plan for internal WP1 communications • WP leaders, DMI/UH by Feb17

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