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Demographic models

Demographic models.

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Demographic models

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  1. Demographic models Lecture 2.Stages and steps of modeling. Demographic groups, processes, structures, states. Processes: fertility, mortality, marriages, divorces, family formation, migrations, mutations, age structures, outcomes of pregnancy (duration, birth weight, foetus survival), change of household composition. Independent variables, phase variables, parameters of a model. Time, age, period, change of demographic status. Adjustment of a model, estimation of parameters, testing a model. Disclosure of limitations of a model. Testing of hypothesis. Initial data: complete - incomplete, precise – approximate, aggregate – detailed. Homogeneous – heterogeneous population (homogeneity – heterogeneity of population). Heuristics, scenario.

  2. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Demographic structure – distribution of population by the attributes connected with population reproduction. Age structureSex structure Marital structure Family structure Territorialdistribution (settlement)Ethnic structure Occupationalstructure

  3. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Example: Age-sex structure

  4. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Socio-demographic group – a set of persons, families, households by the list of attributes identical within one group. Attributes: Age SexMarital statusFamily typeHousehold sizeEthnicityEducational attainment Region of residence Type of settlement A person (a family)is and moves in the state space. Part of attributes of a person is not within a human control.

  5. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Demographic processes (social, ecological)BirthDeathConclusion of marriage Moving to a new place of residenceBorder crossing Gene mutation Pregnancy outcome (birth weight, duration, foetus survival)Leaving parental homeDivorceEnvironmental pollution (for example СО)Change of settlement type and region

  6. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Example: ecological model (opening of EPC-2010, 1 September, 2010)

  7. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Example: ecological model (opening of EPC-2010, 1 September, 2010)

  8. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Independent variablesTime Age Duration of residence Years of schooling Marriage duration Year of birth

  9. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Phase variables – portray population structures and volume of demographic processes taking placeSize of socio-demographic groupNumber of birthsPopulation size in a regionNumber of migrantsPopulation densityFlow of immigrants per year

  10. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Model parameters – describe speed and other characteristics of demographic processes under consideration Force of mortalityAge-specific fertility rateLife span Migration mobilityNumber of regions

  11. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Adjustment of model. Estimation of model parametersInitial status– state of population in the initial time Boundary conditions– define the values of model variables at age=0, arrived to the region depending on another variablesEquations of model – balance relationships formalizing conservation equations for population structures and processes in a given modelEstimation of model parameterson the ground of available population statistics (may require interpolation, extrapolation, utilizing of model life tables and other demographic tables)

  12. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Study of the model (1) Testing – defining the extent of precision, correctness, validity of the model equations Detecting the limitations of the model Testing of hypothesizes(independence of events, form of parameters distribution, number of demographic groups, dependence on factors, …) Scenario – assembly of parameter values on the horizon period of model validity on the assumptions of not only demographic reasons. They include economic, ecologic, social factors.

  13. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Study of the model (2) Study of limit properties of model variables for different scenariosRecognition of indirect dependency of demographic variables upon variation of model parametersAggregation of internal, micro, structural variables, calculation of macro, crude, general indicators Population projection

  14. Demographic models Stages and steps of modeling Discrepancies and limitations of modelingInitial data:complete - incomplete, precise – approximate, aggregate – detailed. Homogeneity – heterogeneity of population(homogeneous – heterogeneous population)Unobserved (hidden) heterogeneity Balancing of two-sex marriage modelsCompatibility of indicators for demographically different subpopulations and the whole population

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