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Piero Conforti ESA

Using Food Balance Sheets and Supply Utilization Accounts in the analysis of agricultural development and food security. Piero Conforti ESA. ESA users. State of Food Insecurity in the World Agriculture Towards 20XX State of Food and Agriculture many others, for specific analyses.

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Piero Conforti ESA

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  1. Using Food Balance Sheets and Supply Utilization Accounts in the analysis of agricultural development and food security Piero Conforti ESA

  2. ESA users • State of Food Insecurity in the World • Agriculture Towards 20XX • State of Food and Agriculture • many others, for specific analyses

  3. high expectations • hardly any comparable independent data source • detailed balanced items • large coverage (countries, products) • time consistency • agriculture and food security • user-friendly access (new website)

  4. observable data issues • inconsistencies (e.g. negative consumption) • implausible feed i-o ratios • implausible year-to-year changes (in consumption, production, stocks) • large divergences from other data sources

  5. observable data issues

  6. observable data issues

  7. observable data issues

  8. observable data issues

  9. observable data issues

  10. observable data issues India’s poultry production in 2007 • FBS: 664 th tons • ProdStat livestock: 2313 th tons • OECD-FAO projections: 2315 th tons Egypt undernourishment figures: • consistency with the incidence of poverty

  11. observable data issues

  12. observable data issues

  13. observable data issues could these be addressed with more: • consistency/plausibility checks • cross-checks with existing survey data • cross-checks with other data sources • an informal in-house consultation mechanism to decide on conflicting information

  14. non-observable data issues • outdated or homogeneous conversion factors/extraction rates (processed products, calories, waste) • waste (farmgate-retail; hh level details) • data resulting from estimations and ad hoc computations

  15. non-observable data issues could these be addressed with more: • periodic updates of coefficients/conversion factors/extraction rates, through ad hoc studies; or regular checks with other technical Divisions • standardized estimation/interpolation procedures and criteria • cross-checks with existing survey data • cross-checks with other data sources

  16. other issues • some totals and aggregated items missing • number of products: please do not reduce! • timeliness: back to the old two-year cycle? • focal points: could they manage a two-way information flow? • internal pre-releases to check data?

  17. to conclude • FBS/SUA are a unique and valuable resource • it seems possible to address the issues highlighted Ideas to consider: • more cross-checks • more exchanges with the rest of the house

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