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Outline of this short course on climate change: 1. Introduction 2. Just three things determine the Earth’s temperature: The sun along with the albedo and greenhouse effects. Last 65 million years (from ocean bottom core sample). Last 800,000 years (from ice core samples).
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Outline of this short course on climate change: • 1. Introduction • 2. Just three things determine the Earth’s temperature: The sun along with the albedo and greenhouse effects. • Last 65 million years (from ocean bottom core sample). • Last 800,000 years (from ice core samples). • Last 130 years (thermometers and physical observations). • Next 100 years (from CO2 Sensitivity and models). • Next 10,000 years (models). • So what can/should / can we do? 3A
The Earth’s temperature record of last 65 Myears (the Cenozoic Period - from ocean bottom core samples) CO2 = 1,500 ppm (from shells of foraminifara) Harold Ureh 1947 3rd major ice age CO2 = about 450 ppm / water world --- 393 ppm today --- 290 ppm 160 years ago --- 180 ppm 15,000 years ago Ice on Antarctica also on Greenland, also on the continents glacial/interglacial periods end of dinosaur era 3B
Continental Drift and Plate Tectonics Note the northward movement most continents and especially that of India. 3C
The Earth’s temperature record of last 65 Myears (the Cenozoic Period - from ocean bottom core samples) CO2 = 1,500 ppm (from shells of foraminifara) Harold Ureh 1947 3rd major ice age CO2 = about 450 ppm / water world --- 393 ppm today --- 290 ppm 160 years ago --- 180 ppm 15,000 years ago Ice on Antarctica also on Greenland, also on the continents glacial/interglacial period end of dinosaur era 3B
The definition of CO2’s temperature Sensitivityis: The temperature change caused by a doubling or halving of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The ocean core data from the “water world” era suggest that the Sensitivity to CO2 is about 3 degrees C during this period. This value would included all of the “fast feedbacks” associate with temperature changes – such as water vapor concentration and cloud formation. Current model calculations of fast-feedback sensitivity agree well with this “measured” value. 3E