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SOEST Contribution to PacIOOS Modeling Subgroup

SOEST Contribution to PacIOOS Modeling Subgroup. Oceanography : Paulo Calil Glen Carter Tommy Jensen Yanli Jia Doug Luther Jim Potemra Kelvin Richards. Meterology : Steve Businger Dave Chen. Ocean & Res Eng : Kwok Fai Cheung. Model-based products. Model Systems. Users.

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SOEST Contribution to PacIOOS Modeling Subgroup

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  1. SOEST Contribution to PacIOOSModeling Subgroup Oceanography: Paulo Calil Glen Carter Tommy Jensen Yanli Jia Doug Luther Jim Potemra Kelvin Richards Meterology: Steve Businger Dave Chen Ocean & Res Eng: Kwok Fai Cheung

  2. Model-based products Model Systems Users Nowcast estimates of upper ocean circulation Ocean circulation • Search and rescue • Ocean recreation • Travel/transportation • Wave/run-up/tracer models • Weather forecasters • Policy/planning • Research community Forecast estimates of atmospheric conditions Nowcast and forecast estimates of wave/water level Atmosphere Synthesis of ocean observations via data assimilation Wave/water level Forecast estimates of upper ocean circulation

  3. 1. Product Development: initial effort construction of regional nowcast maps of ocean circulation based on daily downloads of operational models run by/at NRL Stennis • NLOM (3.4 km, 100m upper layer, 200m isobath, assimilates SSH) • NCOM (14 km, 40-levels, 5m isobath, assimilates T/s from NLOM/MODAS) • Notes: • These models will be replaced by HYCOM (9 km) at the end of 2007 (mandate is end of FY08) • Will require DM/web work rather than modeling expertise • Can be done quickly and inexpensively • IPRC/APDRC activity leverage • Frees SOEST from operational responsibilities • Not ideal for tracer/trajectories nor research • ¼ FTE for technical support

  4. 2. Product Development: local model Integration of three locally-run modeling subsystems: atmosphere (MET), ocean circulation (IPRC), wave/water level (ORE) • Wave model up and running; already operational • Atmospheric model up and running; already operation; not ideal model • Ocean model(s) under development

  5. Wave model system Upper-ocean currents Atmospheric forcing Wave Watch 3 Global, 1x1 degree Wave Watch 3 Regional, 10x10 km SWAN Island-region, 100x100 m Wave and water levels

  6. Atmospheric model system Global Forecast System NCEP WRF Nested to 1x1 km (TBA) RSM/MSM Regional 10x10 km (Chen/Businger) RSM/MSM Island-domain 1x1 km (Chen/Businger) • Surface forcing • Weather forecasting

  7. Atmospheric model system Global Forecast System NCEP WRF Nested to 1x1 km (TBA) RSM/MSM Regional 10x10 km (Chen/Businger) RSM/MSM Island-domain 1x1 km (Chen/Businger) • Surface forcing • Weather forecasting

  8. Ocean model system Global HYCOM NRL Surface forcing MET Observations PacIOOS/DMAC Regional (5x5 km) HYCOM IPRC (Jia) Regional (125x125 m) POM IPRC (Jensen) Regional (variable) ROMS IPRC (TBA) • Ocean currents • Sea level • Transports • Synthesized observations • Research activities

  9. Ocean model system Global HYCOM NRL Surface forcing MET Observations PacIOOS/DMAC Regional (5x5 km) HYCOM IPRC (Jia) Regional (125x125 m) POM IPRC (Jensen) Regional (variable) ROMS IPRC (TBA) • Ocean currents • Sea level • Transports • Synthesized observations • Research activities

  10. Model development timeline • Wave model • Maintain (now) • Atmospheric model • Maintain (now) • Upgrade to WRF (end year 1) • Coupled model (in year 3) • Ocean models: • Serve operational model output (in year 1) • Continue HYCOM (products end year 1) • Continue POM (products in year 1) • Develop ROMS (year 2-3) • Coupled model (in year 3-out)

  11. Ocean models • Serving operational model • Immediate -- Insufficient resolution • Run elsewhere • Continue regional models • Experience -- Need resources • Underway -- Not yet operational • Experiments -- Rely on atm and global model • Research capable • Tracer/trajectories • Configurable

  12. Ocean models, cont’d • HYCOM • Fits global model -- Expensive • Experience -- Rely on NRL • Advanced physics -- Small user base • POM • Experience -- Few modules • Large user base -- BC’s • Efficient -- Very small domain • ROMS • Large user base -- Not yet tested here • Many modules -- BC’s • Easy to configure • Used in other regions

  13. ModelPersonnelMonths/year$K/year Atm model programmer/tech/pdoc 12/12/12 90/90/90 TOTAL 90/90/90 Wave model programmer/tech/pdoc 12/12/12 90/90/90 TOTAL 90/90/90 Ocean model HYCOM Jia (model devel) 03/02/02 45/30/30 Yaremchuk (data assim) 02/02/01 30/30/15 Potemra (man/eval) 01/01/01 15/15/15 POM Jensen (model devel) 03/02/02 45/30/30 Potemra (man/eval) 01/01/01 15/15/15 ROMS prog/tech/pdoc (model devel) 12/07/05 60/35/25 Yaremchuk (data assim) 01/02/01 15/30/15 Potemra (man/eval) 01/01/01 15/15/15 TOTAL 240/200/160

  14. Resources, cont.’d Year 1Year 2Year3 Ocean model 240 200 160 Atm model 90 90 90 Wave model 90 90 90 Equipment1,2 120 0 40 • LOI listed equipment under Ocean model • Cluster/disks in yr1, upgrade to disks yr2

  15. Miscellaneous Concerns • Rely critically on DM component for data storage and transport • Rely on linkages for product development (DM group?) • Model evaluation • Integrate research activities • Determine necessary and sufficient grid spacing, domain boundary (balance with runtime)

  16. NOAA PRIDE: Nearshore circulation and wave modelling Kaneohe Bay, Oahu 10.8 km x 14.4 km . POM with 123 m x 132 m resolution 11 vertical topography following levels (resolution: 5 cm to 11 m) Depth range: 1 m to 100 m Mellor and Donelan (2006) surface wave model (24 wave directions) Currents and wave field for trade wind conditions (15 m/s). Swell: 3m, 10s Bathymetry

  17. Comparison with tidal data HYCOM dx=0.08o HYCOM dx=0.04o OfES (ECMWF) dx=0.10o OfES (Qscat) dx=0.10o NLOM (NCEP) dx=0.06o

  18. Comparison with T/P data rms SSH variance (2o horizontal smoothing) HYCOM dx=0.08o HYCOM dx=0.04o T/P data OfES (ECMWF) dx=0.10o OfES (Qscat) dx=0.10o HYCOM.04

  19. Comparison with CTD data (HOT2 station)

  20. Cross-validation of the models using SSH Model-data correlations MIT GCM, ‘93-’97, [Lee et al., 2002]

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