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The REAL Economy and American Working Families

The REAL Economy and American Working Families Young Elected Officials Network, Policy Council Retreat Washington, DC June 23, 2012. www.earncentral.org. Introduction Economic Context – where we’ve been, where we are, and where we’re headed (and it’s not very pretty).

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The REAL Economy and American Working Families

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  1. The REAL Economy and American Working Families Young Elected Officials Network, Policy Council Retreat Washington, DC June 23, 2012

  2. www.earncentral.org

  3. Introduction • Economic Context – where we’ve been, where we are, and where we’re headed (and it’s not very pretty). • National overview helpful, but obscures a lot of what’s going on

  4. Economic Context -- Two Time-Frames • Immediate short-term consequences and characteristics of recession/very weak recovery • Longer-term challenges that need to be addressed NOW • Decline of manufacturing • Erosion of critical infrastructure (eg, roads, bridges, schools, human capital (early care, K-16)

  5. Recession and Recovery

  6. Underemployment includes three classifications of persons: unemployed workers who are actively looking for work, involuntarily part-time workers who want full-time work but have had to settle for part-time hours, and marginally attached workers who want and are available for a job, but are not actively looking

  7. Source: EPI Analysis of BLS CPS data, 2010, 2011

  8. Distress Sales Focused in Three Regions… Count of distress sales as % of total sales, Nov 2010 to Nov 2011 0% to 19% 20% to 32% 33% to 66% U.S.=35.3% Source: Moody’s Analytics and CoreLogic: repeat-purchase sales, monthly average, Nov 2010 to Nov 2011

  9. The West, Texas and Florida Lead Job Growth Payroll employment, Dec 2011, % change yr ago, revised 3/14/12

  10. Income Growth Favors West and Southwest Wage and salary income growth, % change yr ago, 2011Q3 U.S.=2.6% <1.8 1.8 to 3.3 >3.3 Sources: BEA, Moody’s Analytics

  11. Employment Outlook for 2012 Total employment, 2012Q4, % change yr ago U.S.=0.8% Less than 0.4% 0.4% to 1.1% 1.2% and above Sources: US Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics

  12. Longer term challenges

  13. Cause…. …and effect Chart from "Trends in Transport Infrastructure Investment 1995-2009," by the International Transport Forum (WEC = Western European Countries, CEEC = Central and Eastern European Countries)

  14. Policy Solutions

  15. 4 Policies to Improve Well-Being of Workers and Families • Pursue policies to create Jobs Now • Raise the minimum wage at the state or national levels [Eg, Senator Harkin’s Rebuild America Act, introduced this week, raises federal minimum wage to $9.80 over three years, and indexes to inflation] • Adopt Paid Sick Days legislation • Adopt State Level Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)

  16. Jobs Now (with eye on tomorrow) • “First, Do No Harm” – don’t lay off public sector workers! • Invest in infrastructure – roads, bridges, schools (a) new (if needed), b) repairs, c) make them green [abundant supply of labor, historically low bond rates, need is great, payoff includes kick-starting your economy]

  17. Cities and States with Active Paid Sick Days Campaigns/Bills Introduced or Successfully Adopted

  18. Parting Thoughts • Jobs/Jobs/Jobs: The best way to defend workers and help families is to get the economy on track • “First, Do No Harm” -- Do NOT shred the safety net that’s critical to child well-being, eg: • Unemployment Insurance • LIHEAP (home heating) • SNAP (aka “Food Stamps”) • Reach High – Expand State EITC, Increase Minimum Wage, Adopt Paid Sick Days Legislation

  19. http://paidsickdays.nationalpartnership.org Resources www.taxcreditsforworkingfamilies.org www.raisetheminimumwage.org

  20. Contact Information: Douglas Hall, Ph.D. dhall@epi.org 202-331-5591 David Cooper dcooper@epi.org 202-533-2566

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