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NCEP Production Suite Review Aviation Weather Center

NCEP Production Suite Review Aviation Weather Center. Jason Levit and Amy Harless December 7, 2011 Kansas City, MO NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center. AWC Mission and Vision Statement.

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NCEP Production Suite Review Aviation Weather Center

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  1. NCEP Production Suite ReviewAviation Weather Center Jason Levit and Amy Harless December 7, 2011 Kansas City, MO NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center

  2. AWC Mission and Vision Statement “The Aviation Weather Center delivers consistent, timely, and accurate weather information to the world airspace system. We are a team of highly skilled people dedicated to working with customers and partners to enhance safe and efficient flight.” “To be the trusted authority and leading innovator for aviation weather information.”

  3. Weather is only a small part of the entire NextGen enterprise

  4. The “Game-Changer”… • 8 August 2009 • Express Jet Flight 2816 • IAH to MSP, diverted to ROC at 0300 • Deplaned at 0600 • Passenger “Bill of Rights” • “Three-Hour” Tarmac Rule in place 29 April 2010 • Up to $27,500 per passenger fine • Bolstered need for extended forecasting; no longer press-to-fail mentality

  5. Air Traffic Complexity Courtesy Aaron Koblin – http://www.aaronkoblin.com

  6. Air Traffic Complexity Courtesy Aaron Koblin – http://www.aaronkoblin.com

  7. Aviation Weather Center Operations • CONUS • 2 convective desks • 3 area forecast desks • International • 1 area forecast desk • 2 global graphics desks • Web • Aviation Digital Data Services • testbed.aviationweather.gov

  8. Aviation Weather CenterWhat’s New? Testbed activities: Summer Experiments • Moving towards “content creation” vs “content management” Four new positions: • Two GS-14 “National Aviation Meteorologists” at the Air Traffic Control Command Center – Dec 2011 • NextGEN Support Scientist (CIRA) – Dec 2011 • GOES-R Specialist (CIMSS) – Jan/Feb 2012

  9. Aviation Weather Center2011 Evaluations Hires Window Upgrade (Feb – Mar 2011) GFS Upgrade (Mar – Apr 2011) NAM Upgrade (Jun – Oct 2011) RUC -> RAP (Rapid Refresh) Upgrade (Present) General perception: • Increase in skill with all upgrades • Great teamwork and collaboration on evalulations

  10. GFS, 1° x 1°, 3 hrly to F48, soundings NAM, 90 km and 64 km, 3 hrly to F48, soundings WRM-NMM high res window, hrly to F48 NSSL WRF-NMM, thinned, 3 hrly to F48 RUC, 40 km, hrly to F18, soundings SREF, hrly to 39, 3 hrly to 87 SFCOA, hrly (via SPC) UKMET, 1.25° x 1.25°, 6 hrly to F48 Data Acquired (GEMPAK)

  11. Aviation Weather CenterExample NWP Applications 1 Hour Calibrated SREF CCFP Conditions FCST: F006 Valid: Wed 20111012/2100UTC Forecaster Issued CCFP FCST: F012 Valid: Wed 20111012/2100UTC

  12. Aviation Weather CenterExample NWP Applications All Flights > 25 kft Impact of Thunderstorms: > 25 kft Combine composite aircraft position data with SREF probabilistic weather information

  13. Aviation Weather Testbed Test and Evaluate existing and emerging datasets • High Resolution Guidance • 2011 Summer Experiment • Operational Bridging • Traffic Impact • Convective Initiation • Ensembles • Calibration • Traffic Impact • ECFP Enhancement

  14. Testbed Activities: 2011 AWT Summer Experiment

  15. 2011 Aviation Weather Testbed Summer Experiment

  16. Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment

  17. Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment High Resolution Rapid Refresh • Comp. Reflectivity • Top 25 Jet Routes

  18. AFWA Ensemble Probability of Echo Tops >= 25 kft with Top 25 Jet Routes

  19. Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment NCAR Airspace Capacity Reduction • Probability of airspace capacity reductions in East-West and North-South direction by 25% and 50% at flight levels 20, 30, 40 kft • Based on CoSPA gridded data and AFWA Ensemble

  20. Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment LAMP Convective Probability Probability of convection defined as the occurrence of reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZ and/or one or more cloud-to-ground lightning strike within a 20 grid box and a 2 hour time period.

  21. Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment GOES-R Nearcast Product • Short-term Lagrangian trajectory model • Incorporates retrieved parameters from GOES sounder data • 1-9 hour projections of GOES moisture and temperature retrievals • RUC background model • Hourly timestamps • Provides information on upper-level dryness, low-level moisture gradients, and total thermodynamic energy

  22. Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment • Aviation Weather Impact Graphics Highlight areas of 30% and 60% probability of exceeding comp. reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZ and echo tops ≥ 37 kft from 18Z to 00Z for the Golden Triangle Highlight important weather features for air traffic management for 18z and 00z for Golden Triangle

  23. Aviation Weather TestbedDecision Support: Traffic Flow Management • Support National Airspace Traffic Flow Management • Mitigate the impacts of weather phenomenon including convection, icing, turbulence, and volcanic ash • “3-hour” Tarmac Rule • Congressional interest in flight delays raised due to 2007 performance, NextGen WX supported to mitigate future delays • Support Operational Bridging Activities • Filling the gap between strategic planning and tactical planning (2 hours) by implementing a suite of forecasting and communication tools • Merging the understanding of atmospheric conditions and impact on the National Air Space (NAS) with innovative forecasting techniques and communication tools

  24. Operational Bridging

  25. Operational Bridging • Reconcile multiple sources of weather to evolve the CCFP concept: maintain collaboration • Demonstrate NextGen weather concepts • Human Over The Loop of automation-driven forecasts • Single Authoritative Source • Focus on evolving forecast from strategic to tactical time frames • Aviation application of Decision Support Services

  26. Winter Weather Dashboard

  27. Requests/Suggestions/Wish List • Increased demand for high-resolution models • Microphysics upgrades • CI products (application of GOES-R derived products) • Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity • Mine for aviation impact, aviation-related variables • Ceiling, visibility, turbulence, wind shear, convection • History variables, interrogate model at each time-step • HRRR-E • Details provided for SREF upgrade • Frequent HRRR outages

  28. High Resolution Model Needs • Convective porosity, morphology, mode • Convective initiation • Hourly max variables, max change • Reforecasts for calibration • Ensembles: post processed statistics • Radar data initialization/diabatic adjustment • Increased bandwidth • Faster load in NMAP2/AWIPS2

  29. Thank you! Great team effort: • Model evaluations (collaboration with SPC/HPC) • Response to requests • 24x7 support of dataflow • Model upgrades

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