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Air Capture & Carbon Negative Technology ™ Economics & Engineering. Graciela Chichilnisky -- www.chichilnisky.com Columbia University and Global Thermostat – www.globalthermostat.com Cambridge University October 17 2012. A Human Dominated World.
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Air Capture&Carbon Negative Technology™Economics & Engineering Graciela Chichilnisky -- www.chichilnisky.com Columbia University and Global Thermostat – www.globalthermostat.com Cambridge University October 17 2012
A Human Dominated World Human Beings are today the largest geological force in the planet We are changing the planet’s atmosphere, its body of waters, and the complex web of species that makes life on earth Climate Change?
The Anthropocene The change we are producing will be read in rock formations for thousands of years Geologists define a new geological era - the ‘Anthropocene’ – follows the Holocene – starting 1945 The Bretton Woods Institutions after WWII led to Globalization of Western Economics
Global Risks • Climate Change • Biodiversity Extinction • Clean Water scarcity • Life in the Seas going extinct Avoiding Extinction
Are Humans Next? • Need Action Now • Waited too long • Industrial economies 20% of world population cause most of world’s C02 emissions – the North Energy from fossil fuels 45% of global emissions $55 Trillion Infrastructure 89% based on fossil fuels (IEA) Clean Energy is the Only Solution
Sources: Earthtrends Database of the World Resource Institute (WRI) http://earthtrends.wri.org/ Columbia Consortium for Risk Management (CCRM) www.columbiariskmanagement.net
The North and the South • Since 2000, developing nations that did not yet complete their industrialization are the engine of growth of the world economy – the South Developing nations are for the first time the largest growth sector in the world economy –largest emitters in the future? • Creation of G-20 in 2009: Advocating Sustainable Development
GDP and Carbon Emissions Source:World Bank (2009) and UN Millennium Development Goals Database (2009) Columbia Consortium for Risk Management (CCRM) www.columbiariskmanagement.net
GDP and Carbon Emissions Source:World Bank (2009) and UN Millennium Development Goals Database (2009) Columbia Consortium for Risk Management (CCRM) www.columbiariskmanagement.net
Present & Future Energy Demand • 15 TW: Current use • Double global use by 2030 • 10 fold increase by end of XXI Century (IEA) The World Needs More Energy Today Energy = CO2 Emissions
Sustainable Economics 2009 The newly created G-20 requires change: a Sustainable World Economy How to do it
Changes Articulated by the United Nations Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol Carbon MarketInternational Law since 2005 Compulsory Carbon Markets now exist in 4 continents: EU ETS, Japan, Australia& California USA
December 2011:Kyoto Protocol extended 3 years in Durban COP 17 • Existing KP limits valid until 2015 • New global emission limits pledged for 2020
The Carbon Market- by its author - • What is it? • What it is not
Emission Limits are the basis of Carbon Market How does it Work
The Missing Signal • If we destroy all trees & make toilet paper our economy improves – why? • Because Toilet Paper has Market Value & Trees do not. We lack Market Prices New Market prices = New Values New costs and New benefits The Carbon Market Provides the Missing Signal • 1997: KP Placed Limits on industrial emissions • 2005: KP Carbon Market International Law
New Markets • SO2 market in CBOT – successful & 20 years old • New markets for water and for biodiversity • (Chichilnisky (1992, 1996, 2000, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011)
The Carbon Market • Trades $215 Bn/year EU ETS • Reduced 37% EU emissions • CDM transferred $50 Bnfor clean energy projects in poor nations • Changes US$55 Trillion energy infrastructure
Carbon Market Links to Global Economy Everything is made with energy Economic growth = Energy Use Link to Energy Carbon Market provides Missing Signal New Market Prices = New Values
FOCUS of Carbon Market • Capping Emissions • We can’t get there without emissions reductions Markets for trading a Global Public Good: Compensates bringing down Atmospheric CO2 Creating Equity and Efficiency Closing the Carbon Cycle
Where are We? What comes Next?
What to do? • Changing International Law • Changing Economics We may just have to do it • For the survival of our Species
Change International LawBasic Needs • 1974 This author created Basic Needs within the Bariloche Model of the World Economy • 1002 The new concept of Basic Needs becomes the basis of Sustainable Development and is voted by 150 nations at UN Earth Summit in Rio Brazil • 2009 G-20 adopts Sustainable Development Sustainable Development
Change International LawThe Carbon Market • 1997 The Carbon Market - designed and written by the author into the UN Kyoto Protocol - international law since 2005 • Since 2005 Productive clean CDM transfers to developing nations $50 Bn • 2012 EU ETS Trades $215 Bn/year, decreased 37% EU emissions since it became law • Makes profitable the use of clean energy for the production of all goods and services • Changes the energy foundation of the Global Economy • China ratified the Kyoto Protocol and since 2005 leads the World in Solar and Wind markets • US did not and we are left behind in clean technology
Change International Law The Green Power Fund • 1997 Sustainable Development requires Carbon Negative Technology™ • $200Bn/year private public Green Power Fund to support Sustainable Development in the short and the long term – and change the global energy industry • Uses Kyoto Protocol and its Carbon Market to fund Carbon Negative Power Plants - in LA. Africa & 43 Small Island States • 2009 GPF Created by the author in Copenhagen COP 15 • 2011 Partially approved as the $200 Bn/year Green Climate Fund in Durban COP17 December 2011
New types of Markets = New GDP • Market economics can be made consistent with sustainable goals • But markets themselves must change • Individualistic markets must evolve into new types of markets that I postulated - markets for the global commons – which incorporate connections between people and value Valuing the Global Commons • They are slowly emerging due to new scarcities: carbon market I created within the Kyoto Protocol, international law since 2005 trading $200Bn/year; SO2 markets in CBOT, new markets for water and for biodiversity - Chichilnisky 1992, 1996, 2000, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, Chichilnisky Heal and Starrett 1994, Chichilnisky & Heal 2000 New Global Markets value privately produced public goods: the Global Commons
Green Capitalism in the 21st Century • The basis exists: international law and new economics • Theoretically and in practice • New markets for the global commons, new growth theory, new cost benefit analysis and new GDP measures, new international law • New international law – self-funded and creating economic value (Kyoto Protocol)
The Global Commons New Economics From maximizing profits to economic progress that ensures survival of our species
Technology Urgently Needed • To Reduce Carbon from the Atmosphere • In a Profitable Way The Word needs Energy CLEAN ENERGY FOR DEVELOPING NATIONS
Why Carbon Negative Technology™ Carbon Neutral is not enough • Neutralizing emissions does not prevent further increases in atmospheric CO2 • Even the most aggressive efficiency improvements and renewables adoption are unlikely to keep CO2 concentration at the generally agreed 450ppm to avoid catastrophic climate risk Negative Carbon is the solution1 • Air capture enables direct and rapid reduction of CO2 concentration • GT allows for the capture of even more CO2 than we are loading into the atmosphere or that the earth’s systems can absorb – Negative Carbon GT’s technology directly reduces carbon concentration in the air, making carbon negative possible 1United Nations Headquarters, New York, November 12, 2009. Presentation by G. Chichilniskyon "The Rising Tide at Copenhagen: A Win-Win Solution for Industrialized and Developing Nations“ Company Confidential
Engineering:Closing the Carbon Cycle for SustainabilityA Key Strategy for Environmental Protection, Energy Security, and Economic Development
Global Thermostat • GT creates Carbon Negative Power Plants™ • More Energy for Development • While Cleaning the Atmosphere • GT Transforms the worse emitters – the fossil power plants - into carbon sinks • GT technology makes solar plants more profitable and even faster carbon sinks
Closing the Carbon Cycle™ • GT Technology Captures Carbon from Air • Inexpensive: Uses Low Process Heat • Cogenerates Power Production with Carbon Capture • With GT the More Power is Produced – the More Carbon is Reduced • Makes Coal Plants Carbon Negative • Makes Solar Power Plants even more Carbon Negative
Markets for Captured CO2 *EOR and Algae-based biofuels represent most significant opportunities for commercial applications of CO2 captured using GT’s technology Company Confidential
Global Thermostat: Captures CO2 from Air Transforms CO2 from a Global Threat Into A Massive Profit Opportunity Benefits the Environment globalthermostat Company Confidential 2
Global Thermostat: Transforms Energy and Fuel Markets Enables National Security & Economic Development Turns CO2 from a global liability and pollutant into a profit center and source of clean fuel Closing the Carbon CycleSM globalthermostat Company Confidential 3
Leadership Team Key Advisors Ed Hotard Former COO, Praxair Eric (Ric) Redman President, Summit Power Ron Chance Emeritus Science Advisor, Exxon Rocco Fiato Accelergy, Exxon Richard Kauffman CEO, Energies Nicholas Eisenberger Pure Energy Partners Ben Bronfman Global Thermostat Chris Jones Georgia Tech Roger Cohen Ex-Exxon Michael Fleisher Bain, Gartner Eric Redman President, Summit Power Sasha Mackler Summit Power globalthermostat Company Confidential 11
GT Pilot at SRI - October 1, 2010 – Commercial Demonstration Fall 2012 globalthermostat Company Confidential 16
September 2012 First Commercial Demonstration Plant at SRI Commenced March 2012 - TRL 9 expected Fall 2012 Uses heat from SRI Co-gen Power Plant GT Tandem + Carburetor lowest cost embodiment full integration Cost Breakthrough Powered by low-cost, process heat from SRI Co-gen Plant Eliminates transportation costs Modular Design 5,000-1,000,000 tons CO2/year Locates anywhere with 100 C heat source Flexible Integration Into Legacy or New Industrial Facilities Carbon Negative Solution Captures more CO2 from SRI fossil fuel Co-gen power plants than is emitted by plant Global Thermostat Company Confidential
Closing the Carbon Cycle You need to know where you are going to get there… • Sustainability Requires Humans Close the Carbon Cycle • Climate Sustainability • Energy Security • Economic Development • A Human System that Closes The Carbon Cycle • Flexibility in location of sources and sinks • Connectivity between different components • Serve both todays fossil fuel and tomorrows renewables • Consistent with existing infrastructure • Provide net carbon negative technologies to offset carbon emitters • Value carbon so as to support positive feedbacks • New types of cooperation between countries and companies Global Thermostat - CONFIDENTIAL
Current Approaches to Climate Change “Wedges” approach a good start… • Sensible, diversified strategy based on existing pathways • Portfolio of renewable energy and efficiency technologies • Potential to keep CO2 below 500ppm (still 2x pre-indust. level) But may not be enough to avoid climate change… • Depends on continued net natural absorption rate • Does not address 2000’s already elevated emissions • Underestimates projected growth rate by factor of two • No solution past 2055 Climate will change destructively on its own • Earth history has many climate disasters • New York City under a 1 mile high ice sheet • A safe, effective, and affordable solution to climate change is still urgently needed Global Thermostat - CONFIDENTIAL
Emissions Scenarios… Global Thermostat - CONFIDENTIAL
Future Atmospheric Concentrations… Global Thermostat - CONFIDENTIAL
What Carbon Negative Can Achieve… Global Thermostat - CONFIDENTIAL
The Cost of Atmospheric CO2… Global Thermostat - CONFIDENTIAL
The Need for Going Carbon Negative… Business as usual Carbon Neutral is not enough • Neutralizing new and existing emissions does not prevent atmospheric concentration of CO2 from further increasing • It doesn’t solve the climate risk problem (reducing atmospheric concentrations below 500 ppm) Carbon-Negative Required • To reduce atmospheric concentrations faster than the natural absorption rate • To achieve a safe level of CO2 concentration Air Capture Can Make Going Carbon Negative Possible 7 Wedges (aggressive renewable energy use, efficiency, point-source sequestration) Negative Carbon Technology (such as Global Thermostat) with aggressive renewable energy Pacala and Socolow, Science, Vol 305, 8/13/2004, Pg 969. Note: 7 Wedges refers to the seven stabilization wedges, created by Wigley, Richels & Edmonds, necessary to achieve an atmospheric concentration of CO2 of 500 ppm by 2125. Global Thermostat - CONFIDENTIAL
A Sustainable Solution Close the carbon cycle –CO2 from air to make the energy we need- ENERGY SECURITY FOR ALL • AIR AND WATER MORE EQUABLY DISTRIBUTED CONTROL HUMAN CO2 INPUT TO CARBON CYCLE • TEMPERATURE CONTROL GREEN ENERGY FUND STIMULATES ECONOMIC GROWTH • STIMULATES TRANSITION TO CLOSING THE CARBON CYCLE • MONETIZE THE CO2 SO IT IS A VALUABLE AND NOT A POLLUTANT Global Thermostat - CONFIDENTIAL