Climate change in Ethiopia: An overview

1. Climate change in Ethiopia: An overview By Aregu Balleh Deputy Editor-in-Chief, The Ethiopian Herald, Board member of EEJA 06 August, 2010, Copenhagen, Denmark

2. 1. Background 1.1. Country Profile • located in Eastern Africa ( Horn) Africa • Geographical area: 1,130,000 km2 • Cradle of humanity (human civilization) • The only African country that has never been colonized • With its own alphabets and calendar • Surrounded by Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, Eritrea, and Djibouti • Over 85 ethnic groups

3. Contd… • Administration: Ethiopia is divided into nine states and two federal city administrations. • Population: 74-80 million • Urban population: 17% • Fertility rate: 5.4 per woman • Life expectancy at birth : 54.7 • Mainstay of economy: agriculture, which accounts for 75-80% of workforce, mainly subsistence farmers, 80% of export • Population living below $1.25/day (2000-2007) : 39%

4. 1.2 Landscape and geographicalfeatures • Terrain: high plateau with central mountain range divided by the Great Rift valley, and surrounded by lowlands and semi-deserts • Arable land: 10.1% • Highest point :Mt. Ras Dejen, 4533m

5. Contd… • Lowest point: The Danakil Depression -125m • Agro-ecological zones: Agro-ecological zones and altitude range from the cool zone above 2,400 m to the lowland hot zone (which includes both tropical and arid zones) below 1,500 m.

6. 2.Climate variability The climate ranges from equatorial desert to hot and cool steppe. • The southwestern part is the wettest of the country with an average annual rainfall exceeding 2200mm. • Rainfall amounts decrease in all directions as one moves from the south-western highlands, averaging less than 200 mm in the Danakil Depression • Climate is mainly controlled by the seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and associated atmospheric circulations, as well as by the complex topography of the country. • It has a very diversified climate, ranging from semi-arid desert type in the lowlands to humid and warm (temperate) type in the southwest.

7. Climate contd… • Different parts of the country experience different rainfall distribution and temperature at different times of the year. • Mean annual temperature ranges from 10oC in the mountains of the north western and south eastern highlands to 35oC in the North eastern lowlands • Mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from about 2000 mm in the south-west, gradually decreasing to less than 200 mm in the southeast and 100mm in the north-east of the country. • Temporal distribution of the rain brings three distinct seasons: the Bega (dry season, from October to January); the Belg (small rainy season, from February to May); and the Meher (long rainy season from June to September)

8. 3.Major environmental challenges: • Soil erosion and land degradation • Deforestation: annual forest cover loss is - 40,000ha (8% decline per annum) and most vulnerable to climate change impacts • Poor water and sanitation coverage • Obsolete and toxic chemicals like DDT • Looming threat of desertification • Recurrent drought, flood • High rate of biodiversity losses

9. Global climate change impacts in in Ethiopia • Studies suggest that climate change over the coming decades presents a serious threat to various sectors (natural resources basis, particularly biodiversity, ecosystems, water, agricultural and human health) as the frequency and intensity of drought is likely to increase (EPA 1997). • Between 1951 and 2006, the annual minimum temperature in Ethiopia increased by about 0.37°C every decade. • Between 1960 and 2006, the mean annual temperature increased by 1.3°C, at an average rate of0.28°C per decade.

10. Contd… • According to NMA, average annual rainfall trends remained more or less constant between 1951 and 2006, however, both seasonal and annual rainfall has exhibited high variability. • Studies indicate that rainfalls have been declining. Considerable declines were observed after 1997.

11. Contd… • Frequency and intensity of droughts had been increasing over the last decade, being responsible for the deteriorating food security. • The highlands of Ethiopia have been subject to high degrees of climate variability and extreme weather events. • A recent study concludes that there has been a tendency for main growing-season (belg) rainfall to decline. • Precipitation declines are likely to continue or intensify.

12. precipitation decline presents devastating impacts on poor farmers and pastoralists. • Poverty, water scarcity, and food insecurity will escalate. • Extreme weather events are frequently experienced. • When the rain comes, it falls hard leading to flooding without recharging ground water resources. • It is devastating for agricultural production—washes away soil—and silts up riverbeds, leading to further floods.

13. Contd… • Overall, small-scale farmers and pastoralists are already being negatively impacted • Crop production, livestock, forestry, energy, water, • negetively affected . • Women and girls in particular are disproportionately affected by climate variability. Their workloads increase, and they have fewer options to find other ways of making a living and recover from impacts.

14. Ethiopia is more vulnerable to CC According to the aggregate social vulnerability index developed by the Tyndal Centre for Climate Change Research, Ethiopia is the 7th vulnerable country in Africa According to IPCC’s regional review and the Ethiopian NAPA, the country may face many of the impacts of climate change in the form of droughts, floods, strong winds and heat waves (high temperatures), frost, pests and diseases IPCC’s regional review of the impacts of climate change identified three vulnerable sectors in Ethiopia as food security, water resources and health Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) envisioned by the Government will be possible only if the country successfully adapts to and cope with CC

15. Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change because: • Large segments of its population are poor, • Dependent on income opportunities that are highly sensitive to the weather, • Have low access to education, information, technology, and health services. • They have low adaptive capacity to deal with the consequences of climate variability and change.

16. Contd… • Ethiopia’s economy depends heavily on agriculture and faces increasing population growth. • Ethiopia’s agricultural sector contributes 47 percent of the country’s gross national product and more than 80 percent of its exports. It also employs about 80 percent of the country’s population of more than 74 million people

17. Worst experiences of climate change in Ethiopia Since 1980, at least five major national droughts and dozens of localized droughts were recorded Survey data show that in the period 1999-2004 more than half of all households in the country experienced at least one major drought shocks. Over the last two decades the frequency of drought has increased in many areas, resulting in loss of lives and livelihoods The official estimates are that climate change will reduce wheat yields by 33% In 2004, 11 million people became poor and food insecure from climate change induced drought (WB 2009) In 2005, some 2 million additional children were malnourished due to drought induced food shortage (UNDP, HDR 2007/08).

18. Policy frameworks, environmental institutions, responses • Article 44 of the constitution guarantees the right to live in a “clean and healthy environment”. • Article 92 requires that the design and implementation of programmes and projects of development shall not damage or destroy the environment. • Establishment of environmental protection organs-Proclamation 295/2002 clarifies the institutional mandate and responsibilities of the EPA and aims to integrate environmental considerations into the policies and decision-making of sector agencies through such means as the establishment of environmental units in these agencies at the federal level • creation of independent environmental agencies at the regional level.

19. Environmental Impact Assessment (Proclamation 299/2002) specifies the projects and activities that will require environmental impact assessment. The EIA must be prepared by the proponent of the project, following the format specified in the legislation. • The EPA will then review the EIA study, approve the project (with or without conditions), or reject it. • Environmental Pollution Control (Proclamation 300/2002) addresses the management of hazardous waste, the establishment of environmental standards for various environmental media (air, water, and soil), and the monitoring of pollution. The problem of improper handling of hazardous substances is increasingly important—for example, with respect to pest management and industrial development.

20. The future is not all bleak! • There is a growing understanding of the threat of climate change by political leaders and the public • The country has prepared NAPA and submitted it to the UNFCC • The PM of the country is taking active leadership in global climate change negotiations representing Africa • The country has started implementing clean development mechanisms • Relevant GO and CSO/NGO/Donor agencies are working to support community adaptation and adaptation strategies and get access to finance and technology

21. The role of the media • Generally no proactive media reporting climate change • Low level of professional capacity to communicate CC • Low level of audience interest in CC issues • Relatively better coverage of CC by over the past few years following the establishment of EEJA Ex. A minimum of 10 stories per month are carried by The Ethiopian Herald (daily)

22. Conclusion • Climate change has already worsened the lives of Ethiopians • The worst is yet to come • Ethiopia needs a fair climate deal that ensures sufficient fund for: - Adaptation, - Mitigation and, - Transfer of technology • A proactive, and vibrant media is also needed alongside with mitigation and adaptation efforts by governmental and non-governmental bodies

23. Amesegnalehu! Tak!