Climate Change 101(+): An overview of the climate system, observations & projections

1. Climate Change 101(+): An overview of the climate system, observations & projections ITEP Climate Change Webinar Series (part 1) June 13 Zack Guido Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS)

2. Big Picture Outline • The Climate System (20 mins + 5 for Q&A) • Observations(15 mins + 5 for Q&A) • Projections(15 mins + 10 for Q&A)

3. In the Next 20 mins… • Why we care • How the climate system works • Energy Balance • Paleoclimate • Greenhouse gasses

4. 1. Why we care The Rio Grande AZ NM

5. 1. Why we care The Rio Grande AZ NM

6. 1. Why we care The Rio Grande AZ NM NY Times

7. 1. Why we care Food supply http://johnbridgesphotography.blogspot.com/

8. 1. Why we care Food supply Water supply http://johnbridgesphotography.blogspot.com/

9. 1. Why we care Food supply Water supply Disasters http://johnbridgesphotography.blogspot.com/

10. 2. The Climate System • Sun Drives Circulation Image from http://www.åbom.gov.au

11. 2. The Climate System Energy Balance Solar Constant = 1370 W/m2 342 W/m2 Image from http://www.åbom.gov.au

12. 3. Energy Balance Energy Balance: Sun drives the climate system and is moderated by GHG 342 After reflection: 235 Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997

13. 4. Paleoclimate Warmer Climates; High Solar Radiation Glaciation; Low Solar Radiation Petit et al. 1999; Siegenthaler et al. 2005

14. 4. Paleoclimate

15. Orbital changes 4. Paleoclimate Images obtained from: www.wikipedia.org

16. Orbital changes 4. Paleoclimate Images obtained from: www.wikipedia.org

17. Orbital changes 4. Paleoclimate Images obtained from: www.wikipedia.org

18. Orbital changes 4. Paleoclimate Images obtained from: www.wikipedia.org

19. Orbital changes 4. Paleoclimate Images obtained from: www.wikipedia.org

20. “2010 ties 2005 as the warmest year in the 131-year instrumental record”—NASA, Jan 2011 http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20110113/

21. 5. greenhouse gasses • Temperature and CO2 in lockstep 398 • Image courtesy of Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Science

22. 5. greenhouse gasses April 2013: 398.35

23. 5. greenhouse gasses IPCC, 2007 GHG emitted by humans (data for 2004) IPCC, 2007 77% CO2

24. 5. greenhouse gasses In 2008

25. 5. greenhouse gasses Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2002-2011 ave) Global Carbon Project 2012: www.globalcarbonproject.org 8.3 ± 0.4 GtC/yr90% 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC/yr 46% 2.6 ± 0.8 GtC/yr 28% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components + 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC/yr10% 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC/yr 26%

26. Summary • Sun’s energy sets up atmospheric circulation • GHG moderate the energy within our atmosphere • Climate changes over longer timescales influenced by orbital changes • Over periods important to humans, GHG play major role

27. In the next 15 mins: Observations • Temp • Feedbacks • Impacts • Extreme events

28. Some definitions What’s the difference between weather & climate? Weatheris the conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time Climateis how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time. - NASA

29. Some definitions What’s the difference between weather & climate? Weatheris the conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time Climateis how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time. - NASA Isn’t climate just made up of a whole bunch of tiny weathers? – Stephen Colbert

30. 1. Temp ~ 1.33 F (~0.7 C) global temperature rise in last century “2010 ties 2005 as the warmest year in the 131-year instrumental record”(NASA, Jan 2011) NASA, GISS

31. 1. Temp Global Temperature Movie: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-temps.html

32. 1. Temp

33. 1. Temp Temperature changes are not same across geographies Polar Amplification

34. 2. Feedbacks Why Polar Amplification? “Feedbacks” Positive Feedback: Stock market decline  more selling  more stock declines

35. 2. Feedbacks Why Polar Amplification? “Feedbacks” Negative Feedback: Stock market decline  good opportunity to buy stocks stabilize

36. 2. Feedbacks Reflectivity (Albedo) Images from: www.66s-140e.net, www.stopglobalwarming.com, NASA

37. 3. impacts Arctic Sea Ice on the decline: NSIDC: www.nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2012/08

38. 3. impacts Growing season for SW increased ~7% (17 days) during 2001–2010 compared to 20th century ave. From SW Climate Assessment Report, 2013 Data for AZ, NM, UT, CO, NV, CA

39. 3. impacts Winter Trends: Less Snow, More Rain Most important at low-to-mid elevations (<8,500) More Rain, Less Snow More Snow, Less Rain Courtesy of Noah Knowles, USGS Data: NOAA Co-op Network

40. 3. impacts Water Supply Fire

41. 3. impacts People matter: impacts emerge from interaction of people and climate http://randallsisland.org/events/ing-new-york-city-marathon/

42. What about Extreme Events? 4. Extr Events

43. 4. Extr Events MOVIESteriods and Climate

44. 4. Extr Events Extremes getting Extremer: Jun-Aug temp anomalies over NH Land Hansen et al., 2012, PNAS

45. Summary • Temperature on the rise: global increase ~1.33 F • Feedbacks can amplify or dampen change • Impacts across many sectors, including agr, snow packs, etc. • Some evidence for increasing extreme events, most notably in temperatures

46. In the next 15 mins: Projections • Models • Temperature & Precipitation • Extreme events • Impacts

47. 1. Models Models:Imperfect representations of reality, but useful for some things

48. 1. Models How Climate Models Work Physical processes Energy Balance

49. 1. Models The moving parts IPCC, 2007

50. 1. Models GHG Trajectories SRES, IPCC 2007