Presentation Transcript

1. Commissioned by: Prepared by: Seafood Industry & Consumer Study Summary Report ODRP Advisory Committee January 25, 2011
2. Approach Overview Two tracks of research were conducted. For the stakeholder study, we targeted 60-80 in-depth interviews among four different constituencies to provide a broad range of different perspectives and opinions. The consumer quantitative study was conducted among a nationally representative sample of seafood consumers, with Gulf Coast oversample. Stakeholder Interviews (Qualitative) Consumer Interviews (Quantitative) In-depth understanding of what drives industry stakeholder behavior Linkage for 360º View Fact-based conclusions regarding consumer demand for Gulf Seafood Internet data collection in November/December by Lieberman World Wide Seafood consumers National base sample 1,000 Gulf State oversample 1,000 Conducted by telephone November - January 80 interviews Key stakeholder groups One-on-one discussion 30-60 minutes long
3. Stakeholder Interviews (Qualitative Findings)
4. Methodology Data for this study was collected November 2010 through February 2011. It is important to keep in mind that one-on-one interviews, as part of the qualitative process, are conducted to provide greater depth of response by allowing a small number of qualified individuals to speak on a given topic. However, the acquisition of information by this technique is concerned more with the depth of understanding and should not be confused with the statistically reliable quantification of a large number of responses. Therefore, caution must be used in interpreting these results and projecting these results to a broader audience.
5. Supply Chain Disruptions The oil spill has had a significant negative impact across the entire seafood supply chain, disrupting supply and driving up prices, while overall consumer demand appears to be down. Harvesting activity below pre-spill levels Prices above pre-spill levels Consumer demand below pre-spill levels Harvesting areas affected and/or closed In some cases, product contaminated Some areas still impacted from previous Hurricanes Opening of harvesting season delayed to give crops more time to grow/reproduce Weak growth/ inconsistent quality (Partly due to oil, partly due to weather patterns) Freshwater diversions Vessel of Opportunity program Uncertainty among harvesters Processors are affected by below normal harvesting and lack of demand With harvesting volume down, more buyers relying on available supply Price increases are widely reported by all stakeholder groups Costs for most types of seafood are up, some suggest even seafood not harvested in Gulf of Mexico Processors have to pay higher prices for product but can’t easily pass on costs to retail customers Some retailers still unable to obtain product, prices are too high, and consumers buy less seafood. Most retailers uncertain what’s causing lack of demand Many feel consumers are fearful of product . Some have stopped buying GOM seafood. Some blame higher prices amid weak economy. Higher costs are forcing some retailers to substitute product due to margin pressures. Availability of product continues to be an issue, especially for oysters.
6. Business Impact at Retail (Qualitative Findings) Combination of issues attribute to decreased demand Price, safety & availability together and independently contribute Divisional buyer for 170 stores in TX, LA, FL Formerly second largest U.S. grocery store chain Now part of SuperValue Vice President Buying organization for 220 independent grocers Southeast footprint C-level Executive Regional restaurant chain 115 locations, mostly Southeast Director of Perishables 100+ grocery stores Predominantly rural markets in East TX Market Manager Alabama Grocery store franchise 150 Employees Supply – Unable to source shrimp from general supplier GOM seafood is not a significant part of overall business (more expensive than imports, generally not competitively priced) Price increases (mostly oysters and shrimp) Sell almost exclusively GOM seafood, no sourcing problem Consumers asked more questions but not seen a significant impact on purchase behavior (“People in the Gulf prefer it, will continue buying it” Demand but not necessarily safety (overall economy in Gulf states, loss of tourism) Able to get product Safety concerns mostly an issue outside Gulf states Safety perceptions, overall demand, and pricing Had stocked up on product immediately after oil spill but product is turning slowly Availability is a problem but there is less demand for it Price increases (Oysters and shrimp) Able to buy most species but oyster supply was interrupted Some degree of consumer concern, mostly oysters (temporarily stopped selling due to consumer concerns)
7. Uncertainty There remains a high degree of fear and uncertainty among many stakeholders and the industry is seen as vulnerable to permanent losses in market share and overall vitality. Uncertainty around the consumer is a key concern relative to demand – safety concerns persist. Harvesters Processors Retail What will future harvesting seasons look like? Has the oil spill impacted fish stock? If I harvest in more distant waters, will I be successful? Is the product really safe? Where is the oil? Will I catch contaminated product? If I harvest product, will there be a market for it? Will I get a good price for my catch to justify the risk and operating expenses? Is this still a viable industry to participate in? Will the supply situation stabilize? What prices will we have to pay for product? Will consumers return to buying GOM seafood? Will my retail customers return? Buy product at higher prices? What will the demand situation be like next year? How much seafood should we buy and stock in our warehouse? Type Type What are the reasons consumers are not buying? Will I be able to get product? What will it cost me to buy GOM seafood? Can I pass on costs to consumers? How can I remain profitable in a low margin business?
8. Key Takeaways – Qualitative Research The oil spill has had a significant negative impact across the entire seafood supply chain, disrupting supply and driving up prices, while overall consumer demand is down. Smaller harvesters, processors, retailers and restaurants significantly impacted, with some going out of business. There remains a high degree of fear and uncertainty among many stakeholders and the industry is seen as vulnerable to permanent losses in market share and overall vitality. Industry participants think there is a significant consumer safety perception problem impacting demand. Stakeholders at all levels suggest that a seafood safety campaign is badly needed to restore consumer confidence.
9. Consumer Study (Quantitative Findings)
10. Interview Content Consumption behaviors Recent changes in consumption behaviors and reasons Likelihood to consume in the future Reasons for change in consumption General food safety attitudes, perceptions, concerns Awareness of recent food safety issues Place of origin – awareness and importance Drilldown questions related to seafood and Gulf in particular Levels of concern Changes in consumption (oil spill related) Perceptions & Solutions Consumption behaviors Food Safety Attitudes Gulf Coast Seafood Safety Issues The study was designed so that purchase behavior questions where first asked in the context of “all proteins” to disguise intent. In addition to other proteins, various types of seafood were included to disguise types of seafood that might be more readily associated with the Gulf Coast harvesting region. Questions were asked for at-home preparation and out-of home consumption.
11. Methodology Lieberman Research Worldwide conducted the quantitative consumer study. Data for this study was collected via online interviews between December 1st – 8th, 2010. Qualified respondents met the following criteria: Age 18 or over Primary or shared decision maker regarding food purchases for their household (including food purchases for at-home preparation and consumption and restaurant purchases) Purchased at least one of the following types of seafood in the past 12 months: Shrimp Crab Oysters Tilapia/Catfish/Freshwater Trout Salmon/Tuna/Cod/Mahi Mahi/Swordfish Snapper/Grouper/Mullet/Red Drum/Billfish A total of 1,000 interviews were completed from a nationally representative sample of online respondents. To ensure a sufficient sample size for state level analysis of targeted Gulf States, additional interviews were conducted. Following are the total number of interviews conducted in each of the Gulf states: Data were weighted on age, income, gender and ethnicity to reflect 2000 U.S. Census demographic data. Data were weighted at the state level for the five Gulf States and at a cumulative level for the other 45 states. The Gulf States data were weighted down to represent their proper proportion of the U.S. population.
12. How have seafood purchase habits changed overall?
13. Consumers Have Cut Back More On Seafood Than Any Other Type Of Protein Seafood consumers have cut back on home consumption of oysters more than they have cut back on any other protein, with about four in ten past 12 month purchasers indicating that they are buying fewer oysters compared to a year ago. Past 12 month seafood purchasers, both overall and in the Gulf States, have also cut back on other types of seafood more than they have cut back on other types of proteins (e.g. beef, pork and chicken). Consumption At Home Compared To A Year Ago Base: Past 12 Month Purchasers For Home Total US Gulf States Q1b We are interested in understanding whether you are eating the following items more or less compared to a year ago. During the past six months (May 2010-November 2010, did you buy the following foods to prepare and eat at home less often, with about the same frequency, or more often compared to the same time last year?
14. Various Reasons Contribute to Declines Cost is attributed to the primary reason for decreased consumption Safety is also a concern, especially when it comes to oysters. Q3 You indicated that you are eating the following types of food less often this year compared to a year ago. Please tell us all of the reasons you are eating the following foods less often this year compared to a year ago..
15. Summary Thoughts (Purchase Behavior) Consumer demand for seafood has declined significantly, and at higher levels than any other type of protein. There are several reasons contributing to declines in demand. High cost/ increased cost is the biggest factor Safety concerns and deteriorated quality perceptions also play a role Consumption of shrimp, crab and finfish is anticipated to increase over the next six months, but at a moderate level, and less so than the consumption of other types of protein.
16. To What Degree Is The Decline In Seafood Purchases Specifically Related to Safety Concerns?
17. Concerns About Gulf Coast Seafood Are Greater Than For Other Domestic Seafood, But Much Less Than Concerns About Imports Level Of Concern About Gulf Coast Seafood Safety Compared To Other Areas Base: Total Seafood Consumers (n=1,812) LEVEL OF CONCERN ABOUT THE SAFETY OF GULF COAST SEAFOOD Q17 How concerned are you about your safety when eating seafood from the following areas?
18. Up to One in Five Consumers Avoid/Limit Buying GOM Seafood On average 17% of consumers are concerned enough to limit purchase. Gulf Coast residents are more inclined to believe that Gulf Coast seafood is safe. Concern about safety is slightly higher for oysters, especially among Gulf Coast residents. Level Of Concern About Specific Types Of Gulf Coast Seafood Base: Past 12 Month Purchasers For Home Or At A Restaurant Q18 If you were buying the following types of seafood today that came from the Gulf Coast, how safe would you consider each of them?
19. About One in Ten Have Cut Back As A Direct Result Of The Oil Spill Among consumers who have purchased seafood in the past 12 months, about one in ten have cut back or stopped buying particular types of seafood as a direct result of the oil spill in the Gulf. Declines in seafood purchases are similar between seafood consumers overall and consumers residing in the Gulf States. Stopped Buying Or Buying Less Seafood Because Of Oil Spill – Aided Base: Past 12 Month Purchasers For Home Or At A Restaurant Q20 How has your purchase of the following types of seafood changed as a direct result of the oil spill in the Gulf Coast? Please think about your changes in your behavior related only to the oil spill, not for any other reason.
20. Summary Thoughts (Seafood Safety Regarding Gulf Coast Seafood) Safety perceptions related directly to the oil spill have negatively affected a relatively small segment of seafood consumers. However, these are important consumers because they tend to be more frequent consumers of seafood. They are also more likely to be aware of where their food comes from and more likely to be aware of food safety issues in general. Seafood consumers who report cutting back on seafood purchases because of rising costs or other reasons represent about one-third of the market. Price-sensitive consumers tend to be more infrequent purchasers of seafood, but have intentions to purchase seafood more regularly in the future. Increased purchase frequency will likely depend on prices coming down, or their overall economic situation improving.
21. What Can Be Done To Boost Consumer Confidence In Gulf Coast Seafood?
22. Top of Mind Awareness of the Oil Spill As a Potential Food Safety Concern Is Relatively Low The proportion of consumers aware of any recent food safety issues is noticeably higher among Gulf Coast residents compared to consumers overall. Among those consumers who are aware, twice as many Gulf Coast residents identify safety issues related to the contamination of seafood as a result of the oil spill in the Gulf Coast compared to consumers overall. Awareness Of Food Safety And Seafood Safety Issues – Unaided Base: Total Seafood Consumers TOP FIVE SPECIFIC FOOD SAFETY RELATED ISSUES RECALLED (Among those aware of recent food safety issues) AWARE OF ANY RECENT FOOD SAFETY ISSUES (n=1,812) Q9a Have you heard or read about any recent issues regarding the safety of any specific food products sold in the United States? Q9b What recent issues have your read or heard about lately with regard to food safety?
23. Most Seafood Consumers Trust That Authorities Are Doing A Good Job Of Ensuring Safety The majority of seafood consumers, both in the Gulf Coast and in other regions, believe that the food they eat is safe and trust the FDA, other agencies and retailers to keep food safe. Gulf Coast residents are significantly more likely to make it a point to eat Gulf Coast seafood to help the economy than seafood consumers in other regions. Attitudes About Food Safety Base: Total Seafood Consumers Other Regions East Coast = 42% West Coast = 38% Central US = 43% Q16 Below are two pairs of statements about general attitudes. For each row below, please read the statements on both ends of the grid, and then indicate which statement you agree with more. If you agree with one much more than the other, choose the button closest to the statement. If you agree somewhat with both of them, choose the button closer to the statement you agree with more.
24. About Half Of Consumers Regularly Search For Food Safety Information Among those who search occasionally or regularly for food safety information, just over a third are searching more this year than last year for information related to food contamination, food recalls and food-borne diseases. Gulf Coast residents are significantly more likely than consumers in other areas to have increased their search for information related to food contamination. Frequency Of Searching About Food Related Information Base: Total Seafood Consumers PERCENT SEARCHING FOR INFORMATION MORE FREQUENTLY COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO (Among Those Searching Occasionally Or Regularly) PERCENT SEARCHING OCCASIONALLY OR REGULARLY Other Regions East Coast = 31% West Coast = 34% Central US = 35% Q7 Thinking about the past six months (May 2010 – November 2010)how often have you looked for information regarding the topics below? Q8 Did you look for information on these topics less often, with about the same frequency or more often this year (May 2010 – November 2010) compared to the same time period a year ago (May 2009 – November 2009).
25. Most Seafood Consumers Have Fairly Limited Knowledge Of Some Safety Testing Or Preventative Measures Occurring In The Gulf Coast Familiarity With Seafood Safety Testing And Preventative Measures Base: Total Seafood Consumers Q22 How familiar are you with the current testing methods and preventative measures used to ensure the safety of seafood that comes from the Gulf Coast?
26. Greater Access To Test Results And More Independent Testing Are Most Likely To Ease Consumers Fears Among seafood consumers who are somewhat or extremely concerned about the safety of Gulf Coast seafood, having access to test results and increased testing by independent third parties would be most effective at boosting their confidence in the safety of Gulf Coast seafood. Top Five Measures For Boosting Confidence In The Safety Of Gulf Coast Seafood Base: Consumers Who Are Concerned About The Safety Of Gulf Coast Seafood Q21 What, if anything, can be done to help boost your confidence in the safety of seafood that comes from the Gulf Coast? Please select all the apply.
27. Federal Agencies Are The Most Credible Source For Food Safety Information Consumers are most trusting of safety information that comes from Federal agencies. Consumer groups and independent agencies also hold some clout among consumers overall and Gulf Coast residents. Top Five Credible Sources For Food Safety Information Base: Total Seafood Consumers Q27 If you were seeking information regarding the safety of the seafood that comes from the Gulf Coast, which of the following sources would you trust the most to provide you with credible information? Please select the THREE resources you would trust the most.
28. Freshness And Cost Are Most Important When Selecting Center-Of-Plate Foods Consumers are paying most attention to the freshness and cost when selecting meat, poultry and seafood. A reassurance of safety and particular place of origin is more important when selecting seafood than when selecting meat or poultry products to prepare at home. Important Factors When Selecting Meat, Poultry, Seafood For Home Preparation And Consumption – Total US Base: Past 12 Month Purchasers For Home Q4 Now, we would like you to think about what is important to you when buying meat, poultry and seafood ([to prepare and eat at home]/([to eat in a restaurant]). Please select the top THREE things that are most important to you when purchasing each of the following types of food ([to prepare at home]/[to eat at a restaurant]).
29. Most Consumers Believe That The Quality Of U.S. Seafood Is Superior To The Quality Of Imported Seafood About half of seafood purchasers believe that shrimp, crab, oysters and finfish are better quality when they are harvested in the United States. The belief that U.S. seafood is better than imported seafood is even stronger among Gulf Coast residents. Quality Of U.S. Seafood Compared To The Quality Of Import Seafood Base: Past 12 Month Purchasers For Home Or At A Restaurant Q6 Now, we would like you to compare the quality of U.S. foods to the quality of imported foods for the types of foods listed below. Please select the answer that best fits your opinion about the quality of U.S. foods vs. the quality of imported foods.
30. Consumers Are More Likely To Know The Source Of Their Seafood When Purchasing For Home Use Generally, the source of seafood is more commonly known when purchasing for home preparation and consumption. Recent seafood purchasers, however, are more likely to know the source of oysters than they are to know the source of any other type of seafood when purchasing for home preparation and restaurant consumption. How Often Know Where Seafood Comes From Base: Past 12 Month Purchasers For Home Or At A Restaurant – Total US Q10 How often do you know the source (where it originated- such as locally grown, Alaska, West Coast, East Coast, etc.) when buying the following types of foods to prepare and eat at home? Q11 How often do you know the source (where it originated- such as locally grown, Alaska, West Coast, East Coast, etc.) when ordering the following types of foods at a restaurant?
31. Shellfish, Specifically Shrimp, Is Most Identified With The Gulf Coast Overall, nearly three-quarters of consumers can identify the source of shrimp. Half of consumers identify the Gulf Coast as a source for shrimp, and over one-third identify the Gulf Coast as harvesting the best quality shrimp. Most consumers can also identify a source for crab and oysters, but the Gulf Coast is less associated with these types of seafood than with shrimp. The majority of seafood consumers cannot identify a source of finfish. Association of Types of Seafood With Gulf Coast Origin & Perception of Gulf Coast Seafood Quality Base: Past 12 Month Purchasers For Home Or At A Restaurant – Total US Percent of consumers who associate type of seafood with the Gulf Coast Percent of consumers who believe that the best quality of a type of seafood comes from the Gulf Coast * Based to past 12 month purchasers of finfish Q12 Please tell us, to the best of your knowledge, where each of the following types of seafood sold in the United States comes from (select all regions that apply). Q15 Now, for each type of seafood listed below, please tell us in which one region the best quality if found. Please select only one region of each type of seafood listed below.
32. Summary Thoughts The supply chain is still healing There is still a supply/demand/pricing disruption and much uncertainty within the supply chain relative to the consumer. The industry is in need of a rally point to drive demand Overall, consumer safety issues related to the DWH spill are waning. Safety is a table-stake issue for food and will always be an important message point. However, negative safety perceptions of GOM product is significantly higher than other U.S. regions – this is a long-term problem fixable only by time (and communications). The consumer ‘problem’ is more in relation to the price/value equation Consumers generally trust retailers and restaurants to provide safe/quality food. Price is the dominant reason consumers are cutting back (with exception of oysters) Freshness and cost are more important decision factors for buying seafood. There is a significant opportunity to differentiate GOM product Most consumers believe that U.S. seafood is superior to the quality of imports. Except for shrimp, the majority of seafood consumers outside the Gulf Coast don’t perceive the area to be the source for best quality seafood. Messages that most resonate focus on freshness, quality and heritage Messages that address safety head-on could cause doubt This message is best conveyed in more targeted communications, available to those who will seek it (heavy seafood users).