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Future Challenges and Trends in Weather Forecasting and Research

Explore the emerging issues in the next 20 years impacting weather forecasting and research. Expectations from society include improving forecast accuracy, addressing extreme weather events, enhancing climate services, and advancing data assimilation techniques.

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Future Challenges and Trends in Weather Forecasting and Research

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  1. Emerging Issues in the next 20 years of relevance to WWRP and GAW Philippe Bougeault, Météo-France

  2. The expectations fromgovernment and society as seenfrom Météo-France • Improve the accuracy of short-range forecasts for security of people and properties, health, transport,defense and energymarket • Intense rainfall and flash floods • Severewindgusts • Visibility (in visible wavelengths but alsoinrared) • Risks of coastal submersion • Snowfalls and snowatground • Healththreatsfrom air quality • Developclimate services, ieimproveseasonalprediction and demonstratedecadalprediction • Frequency and severity of heatwaves and droughts • Sealevelchanges • Expertise in geo-engineering

  3. Trends for NWP systems • Integrated NWP systems (for efficiency) • nowcasting, short-range, medium-range, monthly, seasonal and decadalshouldbe part of an integrated set of codes • Seamlessforecasts (more easy to explain to users) • transition smoothlyfrom on time range to the next • Continued trend in increasedresolution • global grid <10km, regionalgrid < 500m • Generalization of ensembles • Ensembles of impact models • Towards the end of the « deterministicforecasts »?

  4. Model dynamics • Revisiting the basic equations for non-hydrostaticdynamics • More scalabledynamicalcores, optimizing the data flux between processors • More « local » discretizations, • Possiblygiving up the SI-SL and the spectral approach(???) • Towardsunstructuredgrids to betterrepresentsteeporography (like in oceanmodels)

  5. Model physics • Towards more conservative variables • Marquet’s « entropicpotentialtemperature » Θs • More advancedmicrophysics • two-moment schemeswillbecome the minimum complexity for a microphysicsscheme • Accounting for horizontal exchanges by turbulence and radiation for grids < 1km • Parametrization of convection remains a difficultproblem for grids > 5km • More « grey zone » problems as the integratedforecastssystemswillbeusedatvariousresolutions

  6. New couplingrequirements(Earth system) • Couplingwithatmospheric composition • MACC project as a forerunner • Aerosolsfirst for cloud/aerosol interactions, fogforecasts, then ozone, CO2, etc… • More requirements in mass conservation • Couplingwith continental surfaces • Emergence of tiled surface models as independant (complex) systems, coupled to the atmosphere, and in need of theirown data assimilation • Need for more realisticrepresentations of urban surfaces and boundarylayers • Couplingwith the ocean and the sea-ice • Alsoincreasingly for short-range NWP • Possiblywith an explicit description of the oceanwaves

  7. Data assimilation techniques • Evolution driven by progress in science and constraintsfrommassivelyparallel machine architectures • Increasinglyhybridmethods (ensembles-variational) • 4D-EN-VAR nowexplored in several centres • Avoids the need for TL and AD models • Requires more storage of data

  8. New observations • High spectral resolution IR sounders on geostationnary satellites (MTG in 2020) • Spacewind lidars (Aeolus in 2015) • Advanced usage of met radars • Doppler, polarimetry, refractivity • More international exchange of radar data • Towards radars/windfarms cohabitation, specific issues to explore • New types of observations • Surface wind lidars, Mode S aircraft data, opportunity data fromtelecom networks, etc….

  9. Ensembles • Work on improving description of model uncertainty • Improvelinkbetweendeterministic and stochasticphysics • Developsuitableverification techniques • Couple atmospheric ensemble with impact models • Hydrology (flood ensemble forecasts), oceanwaves, air quality (MACC regional ensemble), accidentalpollution, etc..

  10. Verification techniques • Classic NWP scores are saturatingat 24-48h forecast ranges • High resolutionrequiresprobabilisticapproach to verification • The development of ensemble requires more effort in ensemble verification techniques

  11. Upstreamresearch • Observation techniques • Drones, integratedprofilingsystems, turbulence profilingfrom doppler lidars • Field campaigns • Mediterranean (HYMEX, CHARMEX, etc…) • Atlantic (T-Nawdex) • Arcticcampaigns • Urban surface energy budget and structure of the urbanboundary layer

  12. Thankyou!

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