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What is the Right Model for the U. S.? Link Hoewing Vice President Verizon Friday, March 27, 2009. The Conventional View of Competition in Communications and Broadband Markets. The Key Question With Any Regulatory Proposal – What Are We Trying to Fix?.
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What is the Right Model for the U. S.?Link HoewingVice PresidentVerizonFriday, March 27, 2009
The Conventional View of Competition in Communications and Broadband Markets
The Key Question With Any Regulatory Proposal – What Are We Trying to Fix? In the U. S., we have managed to use competition to encourage deployment of networks and provide choices In most parts of the country, there are choices, speeds have increased, prices are down and investment is occurring No market is perfect and we have several challenges remaining: Unserved areas of the country Largely rural, about 9 million homes Lack of adoption Broadband prices not the main barrier But these challenges are not “fixable” by the adoption of separation policies
Wireline broadband Internet access now is available to about 110 million households or well more than 90% of all U.S. homes and businesses. Broadband prices are down 25% since 2004. Speeds are up dramatically since 2004. Wireless has transformed from narrow-band voice-centric networks to broadband data-centric networks. Internet use is increasingly un-tethered The U.S. has: 4 nationwide 3G wireless cell providers; Clearwire, a 5th company, is gearing for a nationwide launch of a 4G service using WiMax technology U.S. has 50,000 WiFi hotspots, the most in the world. In any given month, more than 1 in 3 users now report they’ve used wireless to reach the Internet, up from almost no one in 2004 Dial-up: 7 out 10 households used dial-up for Internet access in 2004 Today only 1 in 10 use dial-up DSL: Speeds have moved from 1.5 mbps to 7 mbps Cable: Speeds have moved from 1.5 to 3 mbps to 8-16 mbps Fiber: Didn’t exist in 2004. Today it’s available to 14 million and delivers speeds of up to 50 mbps down / 20 mbps up WiFi: Evolved to 4G WiMax, 15 mbps Cellar: 2.5G to 3G and soon 4G $300 Billion Investment has Remade Access Technologies Today, Wireless Complements, Competes and Converges with Wireline Broadband in Ways Only Imagined in 2004
Competition is a Major Force in the Network Industries Today • Consider the example of Verizon and market share. Like any marketing organization that competes for capital, the company rightly points to its successes, like: • How it has grown to be the country’s 7th largest cable company • The growing popularity of its cutting edge FiOS offerings • The popularity of its market-leading wireless services • Nonetheless, in every line of service Verizon offers, its customers have alternatives . . . and many do opt for them. • Not a sign of failure – but a sign that choice and competition are real. • Verizon offers: • Wireline broadband to 24 million housholds. Only 1 in 3 takes the offer • Fiber-based broadband to 10 million households. Only 1 in 4 subscribes. • Video entertainment to 10 million households. Only 1 in 5 watches. • Wireless to 290 million people. About 1 in 4 choose Verizon. • Phone service to 30 million households. Only 2 in 3 use it, and that numberis shrinking 8-10% a year. • In some markets the number has shrunk to a take-rate of 4 in 10. • Working to win customers drives pricing and innovation Providers in High Fixed-Cost Industries like Communications are Very Motivated to Entice Folks to Connect with Them Rather than an Alternative
Verizon: the Broadband Leader FiOS.FiOS, Verizon’s fiber to the home network, gives consumers up to 100 megabit speeds for data as well HD video services. 12 million homes now have access to FiOS services. 4G Wireless. By as early as 2010, we will deliver the nation’s first 4G network, with capability of tens of megabits of downstream and upstream. Verizon’s purchase of the 700 MHz spectrum will help us build on our unmatched network. The C block alone will give us 22 MHz of contiguous nationwide spectrum on a single frequency. Open Development Wireless Network. Offering new platform for innovation and entrepreneurs in the wireless arena (“C” Block a key platform). Process is open, promotes entry by new players, with device to device wireless hardware an emerging and important trend. Process for connecting devices is short, network connectivity testing. The Network. Today, Verizon’s backbone networks transmit data at speeds of 40 gigabits per second, and we just concluded a successful field trial that more than doubled that, to 100 gigabits per second.
Rapid Increase in Uptake and Types of Broadband Suggests Market is Working
Competition Has Been Spurred in All Market Segments – Voice, Video, Data
Line Loss is a Clear Indicator of the Impacts of Competition Source: Goldman Sachs Research Estimates, 2009
Price Reductions for Broadband Also Demonstrate Competition is Working
Higher Speeds Too Are a Reflection of Investment and Competition In less than ten years, Internet speeds have increased exponentially from 3 mbps in 2001 to 20 mbps and possibly even 100 mbps today for many U.S. homes.
Wireless Networks Demonstrate the Value Consumers Are Getting and the Choices They Have The wireless arena has transformed from voice-centric networks to broadband data-centric networks that complement, converge and compete with wireline broadband in ways no one imagined.
The World Has Changed Old World New World Government Sets the Rules Consumer Electronics Texting Consumer Content Broadband Providers Consumer in Charge Cable Telco Broadcast Wireless Applications Government Services Consumer Commercial Content Convergence/IP
Consider How You Spend Your Day The average person spends 5.25 hours using some form of communications each day. Consumers use a wide variety of broadband technology every day, either at home, at the office or on the go. Broadband Internet access is now available to about 70 million households in America and well more than 90% of all U.S. homes and businesses. Think about your own day…
Despite Competition and Investment Some Americans Have Not Signed Up or Cannot Get Access
But Price of Broadband Access Does Not Appear to Be the Main Reason People Are Not Adopting
The U. S. Has a Broadband Model That is Successfully Achieving Many Key Metrics • Competition, investment, better prices, choices, faster speeds are all in evidence in the U. S. communications/broadband sectors • Our policies around relying substantially on platform competition to spur better networks and more choices is working • We do have challenges and theyare largely around: • Lack of deployment in some areas - largely rural • Lack of adoption in some segments of society due to: • Digital literacy • A perceived lack of compelling need • Alternative access via wireless broadband • Cost of PCs Source: Lee Rainie, Pew Trust, 2007
Stimulus Legislation Provides Chance to Improve on Our Record • Stimulus legislation a chance to address a substantial portion of the deployment problem • Need to focus on mapping • State input and guidance into the process critical • Focus like a laser on unserved • Strong transparency – web site “tickers” • Demand side focus too • Drivers like Health IT and education • Libraries as public access and digital learning centers • Support “middle mile” investments • Possibly use USF support to build out middle mile in rural areas • Reduce dramatically the cost of rural broadband
A Policy Model for “Information Age” Markets • A new framework that builds off of the Internet’s cooperative/competitive foundations. • The four principles should remain the core of IP policy going forward. • Companies could offer differentiated services subject to competition and consumer protection laws. • There also should be some form of industry/advocates group to jointly monitor and discuss issues that arise under the principles. • Oversight by a regulatory body with ex-post enforcement via petitions and fact finding.