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Predicted vs. Actual Costs and Ridership of New Starts Projects

Predicted vs. Actual Costs and Ridership of New Starts Projects. Predicted vs. Actual Ridership . presented by Steve Lewis-Workman Federal Transit Administration – Office of Planning and Environment Transportation Research Board Session 371 January 14, 2008. Purpose.

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Predicted vs. Actual Costs and Ridership of New Starts Projects

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  1. Predicted vs. Actual Costs and Ridership of New Starts Projects Predicted vs. Actual Ridership presented by Steve Lewis-Workman Federal Transit Administration – Office of Planning and Environment Transportation Research Board Session 371 January 14, 2008

  2. Purpose TRB 2008 Session 371 Federal Transit Administration Compare ridership performance vs. predictions; Consider effectiveness of procedures and technical methods used to support decision-making; and “Fill the gap” between previous study and Before and After Studies (49 USC 5309(g)(2)(C)). NOTE - Projects that may have benefited from recent FTA quality control efforts (Summit, enhanced technical reviews, etc.) have not yet opened except for Charlotte.

  3. Ridership Data Assembled TRB 2008 Session 371 Federal Transit Administration • Forecast and actual • Average weekday project boardings, or • Average weekday project boardings and alightings

  4. Comparisons at Key Decision Points TRB 2008 Session 371 Federal Transit Administration • Selection of Locally Preferred Alternative or Entry to Preliminary Engineering (PE) • Major Investment Studies, Alternatives Analysis (AA) reports, AA/DEIS, or PE applications • Record of Decision or Finding of No Significant Impact • FEIS or Environmental Assessment • Actual ridership • Most recent available data from transit agency

  5. Adjusting to the Forecast Year • Forecast years (2010, 2015, and 2020) • Adjusted by Average Annual System-wide Transit Ridership Growth (1996-2006) • From NTD Data • Different for each Project • Limited to 3% per year • Same method as 2003 study TRB 2008 Session 371 Federal Transit Administration

  6. Review by Project Sponsors TRB 2008 Session 371 Federal Transit Administration Project summaries prepared Sent to project sponsors for review and comment Data updated as appropriate

  7. Current Ridership vs. AA Forecast Average = 61.1% 50th Percentile = 59.5%

  8. Current Ridership adjusted to the Forecast Year vs. AA Forecast Average = 74.5% 50th Percentile = 63.8%

  9. Actual Ridership vs. AA/DEIS/MIS Forecast: Comparison of Study Results TRB 2008 Session 371 Federal Transit Administration

  10. Distribution of Actual vs. AA Forecast Ridership Normal Distribution Mean = 100%

  11. Interpretation of the Results • Lack of detailed information  unable to conclusively determine the reasons for systematic over-estimation of ridership • 2003 study supplemented by detailed analysis of several case studies • Usefulness of the findings was limited by lack of archived data and model information • Before and After Studies are crucial to understanding the reasons behind forecasting successes and failures TRB 2008 Session 371 Federal Transit Administration

  12. Conclusions • 8 of 18 projects carry over 80 percent of forecast • Average actual ridership 74.5 percent of forecast • Forecasts in the 2007 study not significantly more accurate than those in 2003 study • Both much better than 1990 study TRB 2008 Session 371 Federal Transit Administration

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