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Draft REDD Methodology BioCarbon Fund Workshop, February 5 – 8, 2008

Draft REDD Methodology BioCarbon Fund Workshop, February 5 – 8, 2008. Harnessing the carbon market to sustain ecosystems and alleviate poverty. History and Plan. 2007: 1 st Draft

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Draft REDD Methodology BioCarbon Fund Workshop, February 5 – 8, 2008

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  1. Draft REDD MethodologyBioCarbon FundWorkshop, February 5 – 8, 2008 Harnessing the carbon market to sustain ecosystems and alleviate poverty

  2. History and Plan 2007: • 1st Draft • Reviewers: Ben de Jong, Bernhard Schlamadinger, Tim Pearson + Comments from Andrea Garcia and Marc Steiniger 2008: • January: 2nd Draft • February: Comments from WB colleagues Finalized 2nd Draft • March: 2nd round of comments by reviewers • June: 3rd draft submitted to VCS?

  3. Existing guidance IPCC (www.ipcc.ch): • Revised 1996 GL for National GHG Inventories. • 2003 GPG for Land Use, Land Use-Change, and Forestry . • 2006 GL for National GHG Inventories, Vol. 4, Agriculture, Forestry and Other land Uses (AFOLU). Winrock International (www.winrock.org): • Reducing GHG Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in Developing Countries: a Sourcebook of Methods and Procedures for Monitoring, Measuring and Reporting. • Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Projects. Voluntary Carbon Standard (www.v-c-s.org): • Guidance for Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Projects

  4. Issues • Insufficient policy guidance on critical methodological issues: • Definitions (forest, deforestation, degradation) • Project and Baseline Emissions • Emissions from land-use after deforestation • Leakage (types, attribution, assessment) • Etc. • Components of a baseline • Quantity • Location • Carbon stock changes

  5. Applicability conditions • Only “gross deforestation”. • Deforestation agents, drivers and underlying causes can be identified. • Deforestation and forest degradation agents are bound to a certain region and cannot migrate beyond that region. • Information on forest cover and forest status before the start of the project activity is available for at least two points in time. • Information on land use-use and land-cover on deforested land before the start of the project activity is available.

  6. Step 1. Define the boundaries of the proposed REDD project activity: spatial, temporal, carbon pools and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Step 1. Define the boundaries of the proposed REDD project activity: spatial, temporal, carbon pools and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Ex antemethodology steps Ex ante methodology steps Step 2. Analyze historical land-use and land-cover change in the reference region during the past 10-15 years and project potential forest regeneration. Step 2. Analyze historical land-use and land-cover change in the reference region during the past 10-15 years and project potential forest regeneration. Step 3. Analyze agents, drivers and underlying causes of deforestation and forest degradation Step 3. Analyze agents, drivers and underlying causes of deforestation and forest degradation Step 4. Project the quantity of future deforestation and forest degradation Step 4. Project the quantity of future deforestation and forest degradation Select the applicable baseline approach and justify the choice. Select the applicable baseline approach and justify the choice. Approach c: Corridor. Deforestation and forest degradation are projected as a likelihood corridor to reflect uncertainty. Approach a: Linear projection.Deforestation and forest degradation are linearly projected from observed historical trends. Approach b: Multiple regression. Deforestation and forest degradation are projected using multiple regression. Approach c: Corridor. Deforestation and forest degradation are projected as a likelihood corridor to reflect uncertainty. Approach a: Linear projection.Deforestation and forest degradation are linearly projected from observed historical trends. Approach b: Multiple regression. Deforestation and forest degradation are projected using multiple regression. Step 5. Project the location of future deforestation and forest degradation by analyzing the spatial correlation between historical land-use and land-cover change and biogeophysical and socioeconomic factors (vicinity to roads, slope, population density, etc.) Step 5. Project the location of future deforestation and forest degradation by analyzing the spatial correlation between historical land-use and land-cover change and biogeophysical and socioeconomic factors (vicinity to roads, slope, population density, etc.) Step 6. Project future baseline activity data (the land-use and land-cover change component of the baseline)by combining the results of steps 2, 4 and 5. Step 6. Project future baseline activity data (the land-use and land-cover change component of the baseline)by combining the results of steps 2, 4 and 5. Step 7. Estimate the expected baseline carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions. Step 7. Estimate the expected baseline carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions. Step 8. Estimate the expected actual carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions. Step 8. Estimate the expected actual carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions. Step 9. Estimate the expected leakage carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions. Step 9. Estimate the expected leakage carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions. Step 10. Calculate the expected ex ante net anthropogenic GHG emission reductions. Step 10. Calculate the expected ex ante net anthropogenic GHG emission reductions. Ex ante= before validation Ex ante = before validation

  7. Step 11. Project monitoring. Step 1. Define the boundaries of the proposed REDD project activity: spatial, temporal, carbon pools and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Step 12. Ex post calculation of net anthropogenic GHG emssion reduction Step 2. Analyze historical land-use and land-cover change in the reference region during the past 10-15 years and project potential forest regeneration. Step 13. Adjustment of the baseline for future crediting periods. Step 3. Analyze agents, drivers and underlying causes of deforestation and forest degradation Ex post methodology steps Ex post methodology steps Ex post= during project implementation Ex post = during project implementation

  8. Ex antemethodology steps Ex ante methodology steps

  9. Step 1. Define the boundaries of the proposed REDD project activity. 1.1 Spatial boundaries 1.2 Temporal boundaries 1.3 Carbon pools 1.4 Sources of emissions and GHG

  10. Project area Leakage belt Reference region Step 1. Define the boundaries of the proposed REDD project activity. 1.1 Spatial boundaries = Forest to be protected / managed = Area where pre-project activities could be displaced = Domain from which information on DD agents, drivers and rates is extracted and projected.

  11. Start of the historical reference period End of the historical reference period 10-15 yrs min 20 max 100 yrs Project end Project start max 10 yrs End of 1st crediting period and start of 2nd crediting period End of 2st crediting period and start of 3rd crediting period Step 1. Define the boundaries of the proposed REDD project activity. 1. 2 Temporal boundaries time

  12. Could be different carbon pools depending on the land-use/land-cover change category. Step 1. Define the boundaries of the proposed REDD project activity. 1. 3 Carbon pools • Selection criteria: • Principle of conservadurism. • Expected magnitude of carbon stock change. • Cost • Above-ground biomass • Trees • Non-Trees • Below-ground biomass • Dead wood • Standing • Lying • Wood products • Litter • Soil organic carbon

  13. Carbon Stock Trees Dead Wood Soil Carbon Non-tree Wood Vegetation Products (Brown et al., 2007) Before Deforestation After Deforestation

  14. Trees Non-Tree Vegetation Dead Wood Soil Carbon Harvested wood Carbon Stock time (Brown et al., 2007)

  15. GHG emissions that would occur in the baseline are avoided. • Conservatively ignore them. • Can count non-CO2 emissions from forest fire. • GHG emissions due to project activities are likely to occur. • Reasonably assume that project emissions are less than baseline emissions  ignore. • GHG emissions due to leakage are likely to increase. • Leakage prevention measures and activity displacement may lead to significant GHG emissions  consider. Step 1. Define the boundaries of the proposed REDD project activity. 1.4 Sources of emissions and GHG Under the REDD activity scenario:

  16. Step 1. Define the boundaries of the proposed REDD project activity. 1.4 Sources of emissions and GHG • Non-significant sources are omitted • Significance is tested using the EB-CDM approved tool

  17. Step 2. Analysis of historical Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. 2.1 Select data sources 2.2 Define land-use/land-cover classes 2.3 Define LULC-change categories 2.4 Prepare LULC and LULC-change maps and LULC-change matrices 2.5 Assess map accuracy 2.6 Prepare a methodological annex

  18. Step 2. Analysis of historical Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. • 2.1 Select data sources • Prefer existing LU/LC and LU/LC-change maps if they are already approved by the national authority and/or independently validated. • Unclassified remotely sensed data (medium resolution – Landsat, Spot). • Ground-truth data (high resolution remotely sensed data and/or field data).

  19. Step 2. Analysis of historical Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. • 2.2 Define land-use / land-cover classes • Consistent with IPCC classes: • Forest Land - Wetland • Cropland - Settlement • Grassland - Other land • Consult National GHG inventory for the definitions. • Subdivide, as necessary, to build homogeneous carbon stock density classes.

  20. Degradation tCO2e ha-1 Carbon Density Classes Time Undisturbed Forest Initial degradation Intermediate degradation Advanced degradation Forest Degradation Non- Forest Forest

  21. Carbon stock enhancement(“Regeneration”) tCO2e ha-1 Carbon Density Classes Time Initial succession Intermediate succession Advancedsuccession Recovered Forest Forest Plantation or Succession Non-Forest Forest

  22. Step 2. Analysis of historical Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. 2.3 Define LU/LC-change categories Forest Land Non-Forest Land Forest Regeneration Intact forest Cropland Grassland Forest Degradation Managed forest Wetland Settlement Deforestation Other Land Degraded forest Describe class transitions in case of degradation and carbon stock enhancement (= “ Forest Regeneration”).

  23. Forest RegenerationClass C Forest RegenerationClass D Forest Regeneration Class A Forest RegenerationClass B Degraded ForestClass Y Forest Class X Non-Forest ForestClass X Forest Regeneration Class A Forest RegenerationClass B Degraded Forest Class X Forest Degraded ForestClass X Non-Forest Non-Forest Forest Regeneration Class A Forest RegenerationClass B Degraded ForestClass X Possible class transitions during one crediting period Possible class transitions during one crediting period Regeneration (C-stock enhancement) Degradation Deforestation Regeneration (C-stock enhancement) Degradation Deforestation

  24. Step 2. Analysis of historical Land-Use and Land- Cover Change. • 2.3 Prepare LU/LC and LU/LC-change maps and LU/LC-change matrices • Forest cover benchmark map • Past and current LU/LC • Past LU/LC change • Potential forest regeneration map • 2.5 Assess map accuracy • 2.6 Prepare a methodological annex

  25. Step 3. Analysis of agents, drivers, underlying causes and chain of events • 3.1 Agents • Who is deforesting / degrading? • 3.2 Drivers: • What drives the agents to cut the trees? • Spatial variables (predisposing factors) • Economic and social variables. • 3.3 Underlying causes: • Ultimate reasons explaining the drivers. • 3.4 Chain of events: • Relationships between agents. • Typical sequence of events leading to deforestation or degradation.

  26. Step 4. Project the quantity of future deforestation and forest degradation 4.1 Analysis of remaining forest area that is suitable for conversion to non-forest use and logging activities 4.2 Selection of the baseline approach 4.3 Quantitative projection of future deforestation and forest degradation

  27. DD rates are likely to continue at the historical level as long as “optimal” areas are available. DD rates are likely to decrease once only “sub-optimal” areas remain available. DD rates should decrease once only “marginal” areas remain available. DD rates should be zero once no suitable area remains available. Step 4. Project the quantity of future deforestation and forest degradation 4.1 Analysis of remaining forest area that is suitable for conversion to non-forest use and logging activities Ha yr-1 Time

  28. Step 4. Project the quantity of future deforestation and forest degradation 4.2 Selection of the baseline approach • Linear projection: Future deforestation and degradation is linearly projected from past trends. • Modeling approach: Future deforestation and degradation is projected using multiple regression techniques(requires sufficient data points). • Corridor approach:Future deforestation and degradation is projected as an average of the historical rate. The 90% confidence interval of the mean is calculated to determine a “corridor” of likely baseline deforestation and forest degradation.

  29. Approach a: Linear projection ha ha ha Observed Projected Observed Projected Observed Projected time time time Decreasing DD Constant DD Increasing DD Approach c: Corridor approach Approach b: Modeling approach 0 credit ha ha Observed Projected Observed Projected 50% credit 90% CI Monitoring and ex post adjustment (dynamic baseline) Full credit time time Variable DD Variable DD

  30. Step 4. Project the quantity of future deforestation and forest degradation 4.3 Quantitative projection of future deforestation and forest degradation

  31. Road Deforestation in year 1 Suitability Deforestation in year 2 Deforestation in year 3 Deforestation in year … Distance to roads Distance to roads Road Step 5. Project the location of future deforestation and forest degradation

  32. Step 5. Project the location of future deforestation and forest degradation 5.1 Create driver maps from spatial variables. 5.2 Create suitability maps for deforestation and for degradation. 5.3 Select the most accurate suitability map for deforestation and for degradation. 5.4 Locate future deforestation and forest degradation.

  33. Spatial variables  Driver Maps Vicinity to roads Slope Suitability Map Logging areas Land allocation projects CATIE Study in Costa Rica (1996-2006) Ex post correlation with actual deforestation:r = 0.91 (p < 0.001)

  34. Deforested Potential Degradation Mapyear 1 Category 1 of Categorized Potential Degradation Map Area that would be degraded in year 1 DeforestedPotential Degradation Mapyear 2 Category 2 of Categorized Potential Degradation Map Categorized Potential Degradation. Map Area that would be degraded in year 2 Deforested Potential Degradation Mapyear 3 Category 3 of Categorized Potential Degradation Map Area that would be degraded in year 3 Continue In case that degradation is taken into account… Step 4 Step 5

  35. Step 5. Project the location of future deforestation and forest degradation At the end of Step 5 we have: Initial LU/LC Cover Map From step 2 Potential Forest Regeneration Map From step 2 Potential Deforestation Map From step 5 Potential Forest Degradation Map From step 5

  36. Step 6. Project future land-use and land-cover change • 6.1 Identification of LU/LC-change categories in “forest land remaining forest land” • Forest degradation • Forest regeneration (= carbon stock enhancement) • 6.2 Identification of LU/LC-change categories in “forest land converted to non-forest land”. • Deforestation

  37. 6.1 Identification of LU/LC-change categories in “forest land remaining forest land” Deforested & Degraded LU/LC-Map year 1 Deforested LU/LC-Mapyear 1 D&D & Regenerated LU/LC-Map year 1 LU/LC-Map year 1 Deforested & Degraded LU/LC-Map year 2 Deforested LU/LC-Mapyear 2 D&D & Regenerated LU/LC-Map year 2 Potential Regeneration year 2 Continue with all future years Potential Degradation year 1 LU/LC-Map year 0 Potential Deforestation year 1 Potential Regeneration year 1 Step 2 Step 5 Potential Degradation year 2 Step 6 Potential Deforestation year 2

  38. 6.1 Identification of LU/LC-change categories in “forest land remaining forest land” Degradation and carbon stock enhancement (“regeneration”).

  39. 6.1 Identification of LU/LC-change categories in “forest land remaining forest land” Deforestation.

  40. Step 6. Project future land-use and land-cover change 6.2 Identification of LU/LC-change categories in “forest land converted to non-forest land”. • Three methods are available to do this projection: • Historical LULC-change; • Suitability modeling; and • Ex post observations (dynamic baseline).

  41. 6.2 Identification of LU/LC-change categories in “forest land converted to non-forest land”.

  42. Step 7. Estimate the expected baseline carbon stock changes and non-CO2emissions. 7.1 Estimation of the average carbon stock density of each LU/LC class. 7.2 Estimation of non-CO2 emissions from forest fires (if applicable). 7.3 Calculation of Emission Factors. 7.4 Calculations of carbon stock changes due to forest degradation and regeneration. 7.5 Calculation of carbon stock changes (and non-CO2 emissions) due to deforestation. 7.6 Estimation of total baseline carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions (CBASELINE)

  43. 7.3 Calculation of Emission Factors. LU/LC-change category Def Deg Reg

  44. 7.4 Calculations of carbon stock changes due to forest degradation and regeneration.

  45. 7.5 Calculation of carbon stock changes due to deforestation.

  46. 7.6 Estimation of total baseline carbon stock changes and non-CO2 emissions (CBASELINE)

  47. Step 8. Estimate the expected actual carbon stock changes. • Estimations are based on planned project activities. • The expected level of “activity data” is reported in tables similar to the previous ones. • The numbers of reduced activity data for “degradation” and “deforestation” and the underlying assumptions must be explained and justified. • If specific measures are undertaken to enhance carbon stocks in “regeneration” forest classes, the Potential Forest Regeneration Map must be adjusted accordingly.

  48. Step 9. Estimation of expected leakage: carbon stock changes and non-CO2emissions (CLEAKAGE) EDisplacement = (CBASELINE - CACTUAL)* X%

  49. Assumptions about attributability of different types of leakage • Attributable to a REDD project activity are: • Activity displacement. • Emissions from measures implemented to prevent activity displacement. • Not attributable are: • Positive leakage (consistently with CDM). • Market effects: • Project can not control markets and market actors, but government can • Market effects are attributable to governments • If market effects are not controlled by governments and carbon prices, DD will continue.

  50. Step 10. Calculate the expected ex ante net anthropogenic GHG emission reductions.

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