2011 Census: Content Workshop

1. 2011 Census: Content Workshop Office for National Statistics February 2008

2. Welcome Glen Watson Census

3. Purpose • Provide update on funding for fourth page of individual questions • Allow key users another chance to comment on ONS priorities for topics • Focus on the new topics/questions that ONS proposes for inclusion • NB: Presentation focuses on Census in England & Wales

4. Agenda • 10.10 Introduction • 10.40 Question testing • 11.00 Second residences and visitors • 11.40 Coffee • 11.55 Migration • 12.35 National identity • 13.00 Lunch • 13.45 Income • 14.15 UK views on content • 14.30 Prioritisation of topics • 16.00 Close

5. Introduction Peter Benton Census

6. Census provides statistics on: • Population units: • people and housing & • key demographics (age, sex, marital status, ethnicity) • Population structures: • households, families • More detailed characteristics : • eg religion, labour market status, industry, qualifications, health/disability; etc • Key requirement to ‘Get the Count Right’ • 2011 Census aim : “maximise overall response rates and minimise non-response in specific areas and among particular population subgroups”

7. Key lessons from 2001 Census • Need to gather information on more than just usual residents • Include visitors • Need to understand coverage • Comparisons census vs admin data • Need to improve enumeration of Communal Establishments

8. Mobile population & complex lifestyles More people at more than one address Weekday residences for work Holiday / weekend homes Children of divorced parents International migration More ‘short term visitors to UK’ – resident or not? Plus familiar issues of students, armed forces, prisons, hospitals, hotels, hostels Risk of undercount, overcount, or wrong location Need to count right people, in right place and be able to demonstrate this

9. Work done so far – 2005 consultation • Formal 3 month consultation (May – Aug) • Publication March 2006 • Over 2000 responses from 500 users • Scoring of user requirements • Evaluation of ONS considerations & other reasons for collection • Allocation of topics to one of three categories

10. Evaluation of topics

11. Criteria Strength of user need Resource allocation Policy use Research Small geographies Alternative sources Multi-variate analysis UK comparability Continuity with 2001 ONS considerations Data quality Public acceptability Respondent burden Operational concerns (eg costs, space) Other reasons for collection Operational purposes Use for coding Key requirement: Robust estimate of population count

12. Summary of user requirements from 2005 • Most 2001 topics • New topics including:- income- language- second residences- national identity • Little expressed requirement for number of employees & hours worked • More than 3 pages of questions! • Difficult trade-offs to be made

13. Work done so far – topic groups • Eight topic groups • Topic experts from within ONS (except DIUS for qualifications) • UK-wide membership • ONS Harmonisation • Methodology • Census

14. Topic-specific consultation • Further specific consultation with users to better understand needs/priorities: • Ethnicity, identity, language & religion • Population definitions – PDWG • Migration • Demographics • Housing • Income • NS-SEC • Disability

15. Other consultation and question testing

16. Fourth page of individual questions • Would allow inclusion of more topics • Research carried out on effects of longer questionnaires • Split sample postal test 2007 – 3 vs 4 pages • Comparison with other censuses around world • Cost analysis of fourth page

17. Changes since 2005 evaluation • Increased requirement for information on migration • Inter-Departmental Taskforce on Migration 2006 • Migration consultation • Planned Disability Survey • Question testing carried out on category 2 topics • 2007 Test and Postal Test • Priorities for content of 3 & 4 pages discussed: • Open meetings March 2007 • Advisory Groups • Heads of Profession

18. Questions/Comments • Any questions or comments?

19. Question testing overview Ruth Wallis Data Collection Methodology

20. Why pre-test questionnaires? • Find out if questionnaires meet survey objectives • Gain an estimate of reliability and validity of answers • Identify sources of potential non-sampling error

21. What is cognitive interviewing? A face-to-face interview to test questions or a questionnaire, which aims: • to understand how the respondent fulfils the task of answering questions • to detect any actions or understandings that are not what the designer intended

22. Cognitive steps in answering a question • Comprehend • Retrieve • Form judgement • Edit answer

23. Identifies problems • Uncovering ‘hidden error’ • Understanding the question • Remembering or recalling the information • Selecting a response • Reactions to sensitive questions

24. Features of cognitive testing • Observation • Think aloud • Concurrent probes • Retrospective probes • Paraphrasing • Vignettes • Card sorting tasks

25. Cognitive testing programme • Phase 1: question development & testing for 2007 Census Test • Oct 2004 to Apr 2006 • The questions tested were developed using: • 2001 Population Bases and Definitions questions • ONS’ harmonised questions • new user requirements • A range of respondents were interviewed to ensure all criteria of interest were covered. In total: • 56 interviews • 2 focus groups

26. Cognitive testing programme • Phase 2: development & testing for Rehearsal • Jan 2007 to Aug 2008 • New format testing questions in context of the whole questionnaire • Five waves of cognitive testing: • Wave 1: 23 respondents (Nov 2006 - Jan 2007) • Wave 2: 69 respondents (Apr & May 2007) • Wave 3: 77 respondents (Jul – Sept 2007) • Wave 4: 27 respondents (Oct & Nov 2007) • Wave 5 is under way • Whole-of-questionnaire testing (Apr – Jun 2008)

27. Ethnicity focus groups • Aims: • explore public opinions surrounding classifications of ethnic groups • unpack attitudes towards colour labels, in particular ‘Black’ • understandings of the term ‘ethnicity’ • inform development of ethnicity question • 12 focus groups, 109 participants • Caribbean, African, Any other black background, mixed background • London, Birmingham, Manchester, April & May 2007 • Report due soon

28. Questionnaire design principles • Navigation & layout • In West, people start reading at top left, after that, we guide them with elements of layout • Essential to have a clear path for eye to follow through the questionnaire • Clear numbering • Consistent even columns & vertical layout • Text set left and ragged right to provide patterns for eye to grab hold of

29. Questionnaire design principles • Minimise clutter • Text, symbols, graphics should be kept to a minimum, as every mark on the page must be processed by respondent • Maximise white space to make it easier to read and more appealing • Keep respondent relaxed 140,000 households 140,000 households

30. Second Residences & Visitors Peter Benton Census – Design Authority

31. Background • Information on second residences has not been collected in any previous census • Information on visitors was collected in the 1991 Census, but not in a structured way in 2001 • Enumeration base for 2011 is ‘usual residents and visitors’ – some information will be collected from everyone at their Census night address.

32. Second residences consultation • Over 80 responses received from a range of users • including DCLG, DfT, Welsh Assembly Government, Local Authorities, Demographics User Group, Market Research Society • Uses include: • inform service provision • plan health, waste and public transport services • resource allocation • provide information on where people are likely to use resources • understand the housing market • dynamics of housing market and profiling housing demand • inform housing affordability and development policies • impact of second residences on availability of affordable housing • Category 2 – more work required to develop suitable questions and assess respondent burden

33. Second residences in coverage assessment • Duplicate returns from different locations: • e.g student counted at both term-time and parents’ address, people with second residences for the working week, children of divorced parents • matching process to search for duplicates • use second residences information to help matching process

34. Second residences in processing of outputs • Census estimate of the population using the Mid-Year Population Estimate base: • definitional differences between where people are counted • use second residences information to estimate where people spend the majority of their time and adjust for difference • Alternative population bases: • e.g. weekday population, out of term population

35. Second residences in 2007 postal test • 2.5% of respondents said they had a second residence • A further 1% of respondents said they had a second residence outside the UK • Of those who said they had a second residence: • 87% entered the address • 69% of those entered the full postcode • 11% of postcodes were half completed • 20% of postcodes were left blank • Of those that entered an address, the highest frequency of location was London (13%), followed by West Sussex (9%)

36. Second residence question A number of versions of this question have been tested. An additional question on length of time spent at address was tested, but respondents found it difficult to answer. The current question has proved successful in testing.

37. Visitors consultation • Over 40 responses received from a range of users • including DCLG, DfT, DfES, Welsh Assembly Government, Local Authorities • Uses include: • inform service provision • measure the total pressure on services such as transport and health • resource allocation • essential for DCLG’s daytime net inflow and foreign visitors indicators • DCLG still use visitor information from 1991 Census as not collected in 2001 • Category 1

38. Visitors in communal establishments • Visitor information will not be collected from visitors in communal establishments • too complex • could jeopardise the count of usual residents • This means that there will not be a full visitor count • only visitors in households • no persons present output base • Primary purpose of collecting visitor information is to get the best usual residents estimate

39. Visitor information for Quality Assurance • A sample of visitors will be matched back to their usual residence • check whether they were missed where they usually live • In CCS areas, will also be matched to the CCS in the households they were visiting • check whether they were mis-classified • This will provide a source of data to assess the quality of, and potentially adjust, the census population estimates • important when defending the census results • In non-CCS areas, the mis-classification rate will be used in the QA • A full match may be done in certain LAs if the QA suggests concerns

40. Visitors in the 2001 Census • From a sample of 7 Enumeration Areas: • 9.5% of people recorded as visitors were actually usual residents • 1.5% were of no fixed abode and should have been recorded as usual residents • 17% of visitors were overseas visitors • 67% of visitors were from the UK • 20% of these UK visitors were missed at their usual residence • 4.5% of visitors did not have an address recorded • It is estimated there will be around 2.1 million visitors on Census night in 2011

41. Visitor questions In testing, respondents who had visitors generally had a good understanding of who should be included in this question. When the visitors questions were located in the household section of the form, many respondents filled in the questions for usual residents. Locating the questions on the back page of the form has proved more successful.

42. Questions/Comments • Any questions or comments?

43. Migration Chris Smith Jonathan Smith, Pamela Spicer, Richard Pereira ONS Centre for Demography

44. ONS External Consultation; Preliminary Work • May 2005 ONS published consultation document ‘The 2011 Census: Initial view on content for England and Wales’ • Following on, ONS published an information paper ‘The 2011 Census: Assessment of initial user requirements on content for England and Wales’

45. Key Migration Requirements Noted • Address One Year Ago • Country of Birth • Clear need for additional migration data

46. Specific Migration Consultation • In October 2006 a consultation document on external user needs sent to data users • 61 responses were received from: • 12 Central Government Departments • 34 Local Government • 10 Academics • 5 other groups/organisations

47. October 2006 Consultation: Key Migration Issues Noted • Address One Year Ago • Country of Birth • Citizenship • Date of Arrival

48. Oct 2006 Consultation: Issues • Address One Year Ago • Identifies internal migrants and international in-migrants in previous year • Country of Birth • Continuity with previous censuses essential • To profile the large numbers of migrants from EU ‘Accession’ countries • House of Commons Library said CoB a ‘poor proxy’ for Citizenship; increased ‘blurring’ between CoB & Citizenship.

49. Oct 2006 Consultation: Issues • Citizenship • Has neverbeen included in UK censuses • Is most easily defined by passport eligibility • The National Statistics Quality Review (NSQR) on International Migration Statistics recommended inclusion of a Citizenship question in future censuses

50. Citizenship: Potential Stated Uses • Defines right of movement, eligibility to vote and access to employment/welfare benefits • Collection would allow citizens of other EU countries to be measured at local level • UK is one of only three OECD countries not collecting Census information on citizenship