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EU - India regional trade agreement – a quantitative assessment. Thom Achterbosch LEI . Outline. Current approaches for impact analysis of agricultural trade policies Application: EU-India Free Trade Agreement Limitations.
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EU - India regional trade agreement – a quantitative assessment Thom Achterbosch LEI
Outline • Current approaches for impact analysis of agricultural trade policies • Application: EU-India Free Trade Agreement • Limitations
Agricultural trade liberalisation: factors driving impact on economic development • Reduced supply of program commodities in OECD countries (wheat, grains) under lower production incentives. Prices up. terms of trade declining (net importers) and improving (net exporters). • Global agricultural trade expands as barriers come down. Trade creation. • Competitive producers gain market share on the less competitive producers. Preference erosion. • Possible technological change and productivity growth, making free available resources for alternative use. Structural changes reflect shifts of factors of production from one sector to the other.
Agricultural trade reform: impact on the poor • Agriculture is important source of employment • Continuum of trade-poverty links: • First-round effects: households face price changes • Second-round effects: households adjust to changing market conditions • Long-term effects: sustained poverty reduction via economic growth • Outcome strongly depends on the ability of the poor to respond to changes (second-round vs. first-round)
First collect the pieces, then solve the puzzle • Research on trade and poverty should first be focused on finding and understanding the missing pieces • Therefore current poverty impact studies should not be taken too literally (since the puzzle is not yet completed) • However, the importance of domestic policies is already quite clear (strategic and tactical policies)
Application • Quantitative assessment of EU-India FTA: • Welfare impact of RTA (regional trade agreement) • Importance of agriculture in RTA, • Within-country effects (India) • Markets for goods and factors of production • Method: • GTAP model adapted to agricultural issues • simulate RTAs with different levels of ambition
EU’s interest in RTA - manufactures • EU always gains, unless it is only one liberalizing while India limits its liberalization to maximum 20% • EU gains most if only India fully liberalizes • Impacts on EU are small ( -0.004 to 0.023 % of GDP) • Doha does not change pattern of impact but reduces size further ( -0.002 to 0.011 % of GDP) Welfare effects for EU of gradual non-agricultural liberalization in EU and India based on EV welfare measure (source: model simulations)
India’s interest in RTA - manufactures EU: 100% India: 30% • India faces losses in majority of cases; only positive gains if liberalization less than 70% coupled with full liberalization by EU • Impacts are larger for India ( -0.30 to 0.14 % of GDP) than for EU • Doha does not change pattern of impact, but reduces size (-0.13 to 0.09 % of GDP) • Maximum allocative efficiency for India with 30% liberalization and full EU liberalization EU: 100% India: 70% Welfare effects for India of gradual non-agricultural liberalization in EU and India based on EV welfare measure (source: model simulations)
EU’s interest in RTA – manuf. + agriculture • EU always gains, gains peak with EU liberalizing between 70 and 80 % • EU gains increase nonlinearly with liberalization by India • Impacts on EU remain limited ( 0.002 to 0.005 % of GDP) • Doha shifts peak for EU to between 30 and 40, reduces impact further, now small negative impact with limited liberalization by India ( -0.001 to 0.02 % of GDP) Welfare effects for EU of gradual agricultural liberalization in EU and India on top of manufactures liberalization (100% by EU, 30 % by India), based on EV welfare measure (source: model simulations)
India’s interest in RTA – manuf. + agriculture • India in 18 cases losses from agriculture, these are outweighed by gains from manufacturing • India’s gains increase nonlinearly with liberalization by EU • Impacts on India larger than on EU (between 0.10 and 0.21% of GDP) • Doha does not change pattern of impact, but reduces size (0.05 to 0.11% of GDP) Gains from manufacturing (EU:100% and India:30%) Welfare effects for India of gradual agricultural liberalization in EU and India on top of manufactures liberalization (100% by EU, 30 % by India), based on EV welfare measure (source: model simulations)
Summary of welfare effects • Overall observations: • Limited impact of RTA on EU • Doha reduces size of impacts (positive and negative) but not pattern (except for impact of manufactures + agriculture in EU with Doha) • Interests in RTA: • Manufactures: interests of India strongly depend on level of liberalization by EU • Manufactures + agriculture: both EU and India have interest is one-sided full liberalization by the other party
Indian interests in EU free trade agreement? • India’s economy not well integrated in global markets • Particularly agriculture • EU not a logical trading partner in agriculture • India has strong defensive interests • Offensive interests conditional on EU opening up markets • Textiles • Crops: rice, possibly sugar
Exploring India’s “optimum” • Welfare gains 1st best = Crops-based exports to EU • Welfare gains 0.2% of GDP • Large impact on land markets • Offensive sectoral interests: rice (sugar) • 2nd best = Textiles, textiles • Keep Ag closed • Textiles, cotton sector expand • Substantial impact on unskilled labour demand, wages • Growth and equity effects – desirable growth?
India – land and capital (real price change, %) Land Capital
India – labor (real price change, %) Unskilled labor Skilled labor
Factor prices – a glimpse at distribution of impact • India: • factor prices tend to rise • prices of land, labor and capital employed in agriculture rise in all cases; prices respond most to a limited agriculture liberalization by India • prices of skilled labor and capital employed in non-agriculture decrease with limited agricultural liberalization • price changes reflect move to agriculture and labor intensive manufacturing • EU: factor prices unaffected by RTA
Strengths and Limitations • Applied global economic models and GTAP database • Bring numbers to the debate • Key stakes in trade reform lie in manufacturing, service, and interaction with agriculture economy • 0.1% of GDP across a range of studies – what fuzz? Distribution effects! • Research agenda • Household level impact (livelihood and production) • Mobility of land and labour, interactions between factor markets • Standards, non-tariff measures
Alternative perspectives, other results • Structuralist economics • Macroeconomic consistency • Deviate from neoclassicial framework, underemployment • Evolutionary, institutional economics • Market failures, and ‘history matters’