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Global Risk Landscape 2018: Climate Change and Water Scarcity Trends

Explore the impact of climate change on water scarcity, global trends, mitigation strategies, and potential solutions. Learn about droughts, economic and physical water scarcity, mitigation of CO2 emissions, urbanization effects, and ways to address the water crisis.

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Global Risk Landscape 2018: Climate Change and Water Scarcity Trends

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  1. Climate Change and Water Scarcity Eddy Moors January 8th, 2018

  2. Introduction Some definitions for this talk Climate change Impacts Options

  3. Water scarcity is the lack of sufficient available water resources to meet water needs within a region. It affects every continent and around 2.8 billion people around the world at least one month out of every year. Water scarcity can result from two mechanisms: • physical (absolute) water scarcity • economic water scarcity Water scarcity

  4. What is a drought? Economic water scarcity Physical water scarcity Evaporation Precipitation deficit Meteorological drought Surface water deficit Hydrologicaldrought Soil water deficit Agro hydrologicaldrought Water demand Soc. Econ. drought Antecedent water storage Groundwater deficit Hydrologicaldrought

  5. Trends: Climate change: CO2emissions Global Carbon Project: www.globalcarbonproject.org

  6. Mitigation of emissionsEnergy trends Oil Nuclear Energy generation Coal Gas Wind Fossil PV Solar (see e.g. reneweconomy.com.au & static.cdn-seekingalpha.com)

  7. IPCC: The future climate • scenarios (Source: IPCC AR5)

  8. CC impacts (IPCC AR5)

  9. Globally 2017 > 50% 2050 > 65% Urbanization (Source: United Nations)

  10. Groundwater trend (e.g. Iran) ~ -0.5 m per year

  11. Global Risk Landscape 2018

  12. What is in the news?

  13. Precipitation of Cape Town mm days Source: Modelled data Meteoblue

  14. Shifting precipitation patterns in time and space Crop specific seasonal water demand Monsoon variability Shift in melt run off High temperatures (Source: Biemans et al, 2016)

  15. Other cities other causes São Paulo: 2015 20 days of water supply Bangalore: 85% of the lakes insufficient water quality Beijing: 2015 40% of surface water polluted Cairo: polluted water and expected shortage in 2025 Jakarta: 40% below sea level, no replenishment of aquifers Moscow: 35 – 60% drinking water reserves do not meet sanitation standards Istanbul: 2014 city’s reservoirs declined to <30% of capacity Mexico city: water losses 40%, 40% of its water is imported London: water supply problems by 2025 becoming serious by 2040 Tokyo: rainfall season of 4 months Miami: salt water intrusion Source: BBC 11 February 2018

  16. Ways forward Increase water productivity Restore the sponge function of the soil (aquifer restoration) Water treatment and re-use Drought management …

  17. Water demand … and energy

  18. Production/supply chain: efficiency improvement and demand management Product service efficiency Emission efficiency Energy efficiency Demand management Material efficiency IPCC WGIII AR5

  19. Key questions: Can we provide seasonal drought/scarcity forecasts? Are drought and flood mitigation measures complementary? Can we increase the “sponge” capacity of our landscape? Can we manage our demands? How to engage stakeholders? Differences in perceptions! How do we finance the mitigation measures? Do we have enough time to implement these measures? How do we share our waters, now and in the future?

  20. Global Risk Landscape 2018 Water Crisis

  21. Thank you for your attention

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