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Climate Change and Water Scarcity on Cyprus

Climate Change and Water Scarcity on Cyprus. Manfred A. Lange Energy, Environment and Water Research Center The Cyprus Institute. M. A. Lange • 9/5/2014 • 1. Outline. Background and Introduction Climate and Water on Cyprus Current Climate Conditions Current Water Balance

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Climate Change and Water Scarcity on Cyprus

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  1. Climate Change and Water Scarcity on Cyprus Manfred A. Lange Energy, Environment and Water Research CenterThe Cyprus Institute M. A. Lange • 9/5/2014 • 1

  2. Outline • Background and Introduction • Climate and Water on Cyprus • Current Climate Conditions • Current Water Balance • Regional Climate Projections • Temperature Scenarios • Precipitation Scenarios • Addressing Water Scarcity • Possible Options • Concentrating Solar Power and the Co-generation of electricity and desalinated seawater • Conclusions

  3. Background and Introduction • Cyprus • Area: 9 250 km2 • Population *) of 792 600 inhabitants + 2 to 3 Million tourists per year • Population expected to grow, primarily due to “retirees” Source: CIA, 2008 *) only Republic of Cyprus without the northern part of Cyprus

  4. Background and Introduction • Cyprus is... • the 3rd largest island after Sicily and Sardinia in the Mediterranean • is situated at 33°E and 35°N • its maximum territorial dimensions are: north–south 97 km and east-west 241 km • 19% of the total area is forested, 47% is arable land and the remaining 34% is cultivated land • Geomorphology of the island is dominated by • two mountain ranges: • Troodos range, rising to1951m and coveringabout 1/3 of its area and • the Kyrenia range at thenorth, rising to 1085m • Between the two ranges:the Mesaoria Plain

  5. Background and Introduction • Cyprus climate: Mediterranean, semi-arid climate with • hot dry summers: May to September • somewhat rainy, changeable wintersfrom November to March • mean annual precipitation of 460mmwith considerable inter-annual variations • climatological values of precipitation have been falling over last 50 years • European water stress “champion”

  6. Current Climate Conditions • Current and past temperatures and precipitation 1,7oC 1,6oC Mean annual temperatures for Cyprus and Nicosia and mean annual precipitation for the 20th century ; source: Meteorological Service, Cyprus -170 mm

  7. The Current Water Balance • Groundwater resources are heavily depleted or at risk • Saltwater intrusion

  8. The Current Water Balance • In the 1970 and 1980s, Cyprus built a large number of dams to reduce loss of surface water to the sea • Water stored in dams has recently dramatically fallen • This year:some relief Storage: 80 M m3 on 23. 9. 2009 Construction of dams on Cyprus; Source: Water Development Department, 2007 Source: Water Development Department, 2009

  9. The Current Water Balance • Water Consumers • Agriculture dominates demand/use of water • Demand far exceeds supply of water Source: Iacovides and Glekas, 2001 Source: Water Development Department, 2008

  10. The Current Water Balance • Irrigation Water Supply Still Small Contributionof Water Recycling Source: Water Development Department, 2009

  11. The Current Water Balance • Domestic Water Supply The “last resort” Increasing Role ofDesalination Source: Water Development Department, 2009

  12. Regional Climate Projections • Rationale: • Global Climate Models (GCMs) insufficient in representing „smaller“ geographical units • Regional Climate Models (RCMs): better representation of coastlines and islands GCM land-sea mask RCM model grid

  13. Regional Climate Projections • Downscaling of GCM Results: Temperature • GCM: ECHAM5; A1B SRES emission scenario • RCM: RACMO2 regional climate model developed at KNMI, Netherlands in the framework of EU-ENSEMBLES • Horizontal resolution: 2525km2, 40 vertical layers • Control run: 1961-1990; two time slices: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 Ts 5oC for 2071-2100 Ts 2oC for 2021-2050 Average summer maximum temperatures (Ts) relative to reference value of 34oC; source: Hadjinicolaou , pers. comm.

  14. Regional Climate Projections • Verification and projection runs: PRECIS Mean annual temperatures: Nicosia + 4oC Projection Verification Verification run aand projection of mean temperatures for Nicosia employing the PRECIS regional dynamical downscaling program; Hadjinicolaou , pers. comm.

  15. Regional Climate Projections • Number of days with Tmax > 35oC • changes are more pronounced in the central eastern part of the island dTm 60daysfor 2071-2100 dTm 25daysfor 2021-2050 Increase of days with Tmax > 35oC (ΔdTm) relative to reference (dTm =~ 60 days);source: Hadjinicolaou , pers. comm.

  16. Regional Climate Projections • Downscaling of GCM results: precipitation • Annual total precipitation • Strongest decrease in central-southern part of the island Pt  -20 to -35%for 2071-2100 Pt  -6 to -18% for 2021-2050 Average change in total precipitation (Pt ) relative to reference;source: Hadjinicolaou , pers. comm.

  17. Regional Climate Projections • Downscaling of GCM Results: Precipitation Pw  -40% for 2071-2100 Pw  -25% for 2021-2050 Average total winter precipitation (Pw ) relative to reference; source: Hadjinicolaou , pers. comm. Average length of dry spells (DS) in summer relative to reference; source: Hadjinicolaou , pers. comm. 2071-2100 :DS  12% ( 15 days) easternDS  25% ( one month) western Part

  18. Regional Climate Projections • These changes will cause distinct impacts • e.g.: increased desertification Present geographical distribution of the Environmentally Sensitive Areas to Desertification on Cyprus; source: I.A.CO Ltd., 2007

  19. Addressing Water Scarcity • The expected decrease in water availability requires effective adaptationstrategies • We will consider two issues • Water management practiceswith regard to agriculture • Seawater desalination • These strategies should • reduce vulnerability • be sustainable • minimize adverse effects • not overly disturb current economic performance ?

  20. Addressing Water Scarcity • Agricultural Water Use • Water demand for cultivated, partly extremely water-intensive crops amounts to a total of 182 M m3 per year • Given the economic contribution of agriculture, Cyprus should • Strongly encourage/impose water saving measures in agriculture • Create incentives for the cultivation of less water intensive crops • Consider the reduction of the agricultural activities in favor of other more beneficial and less water demanding sectors Source: Zoumides, 2008, after Savvides et al, 2001

  21. Addressing Water Scarcity • Seawater Desalination • Three desalination plants provide 112 000m3 per day 40,3 Mm3/a~ 25% oftotal demand € 13,3 M/a € 12,7 M/a € 10,0 M/a € 36,0 M/a

  22. Addressing Water Scarcity • Drawbacks of Seawater Desalination • Relatively energy-intensive • Mean consumption: 4.52kWh/m3 of desalinated water • 40,3 Mm3/a   4 % of total electricity generated on Cyprus • Contributes to CO2 emissions, which are beyond EU targets • Remedies • Switch from oil- to natural-gas fired power plants  • Import of water by ship  • In 2008: 8 Mm3 shipped from Greece; cost €42 M (€5/m3) • Use of renewable energy sources • Solar energy seems most effective  • Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)holds significant promise 1 900 kWh/m2

  23. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) • Solar-thermal energy generation • Four basic technologies • Parabolic trough and Fresnel currentlymost common for medium-size applications • Solar tower: large-scale application The four basic CSP techniques and principal functions of parabolic trough and Fresnel; Source: DLR

  24. CSP • CSP Plants represent proven technology CSP Plant, Kramer Junction,, CA, USA Schematic representation and flow diagram of a Typical CSP power plant (Source: F. Morse, pers. comm.) CSP Plant, Harper Lake Rd, Hinkley, CA, USA

  25. Co-Generation of Electricity &Water Multi-Effect Desalination • Replace Cooling Systemby MED

  26. Co-Generation of Electricity &Water • Excess heat from cooling unit in CSP plant can be utilized to drive a Multi-Effect Desalination (MED) unit • This offers the unique opportunity to co-generate electricity and desalinated seawater • Thereby addressing two of the most pressing problems in Cyprus and the MENA countries Schematic depiction of alternative approaches to utilize CSP for seawater desalination by utilizing the generated heat only in multi-effect desalination; Source: Trieb et al., 2005

  27. Conclusions • Cyprus is governed by Mediterranean climate which is characterized by large variability, increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation • Water scarcity – a prevailing problem • Future climate of Cyprus will be characterized by very warm and dry summers and milder winters • There will be an enhanced scarcity in available water and an increasing trend towards desertification of the island • Addressing water scarcity requires changed agricultural practices and innovative technologies for seawater desalination

  28. Thank you for your attention

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