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Broadband Wireless “HAPPENINGS” George Hendry Alcatel

Broadband Wireless “HAPPENINGS” George Hendry Alcatel. Broadband Wireless Health Assessment. “”Doesn’t work in rain” “Can’t compete with DSL” “Stumbled at the starting gate” “Stillbirth of BB Wireless” “Wireless won’t work” “Optics is the only solution” “No equipment”

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Broadband Wireless “HAPPENINGS” George Hendry Alcatel

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  1. Broadband Wireless “HAPPENINGS” George Hendry Alcatel

  2. Broadband WirelessHealth Assessment • “”Doesn’t work in rain” • “Can’t compete with DSL” • “Stumbled at the starting gate” • “Stillbirth of BB Wireless” • “Wireless won’t work” • “Optics is the only solution” • “No equipment” • “Equipment too expensive” • Naysayers are having fun • Pontificators and sideliners became instant experts

  3. Broadband WirelessHealth Assessment ARE WE DEAD? ARE WE DYING? ARE WE SICK? NO WAY!! We ARE having birthing pains ----- Just like any other new technology

  4. Market Evolution • Segmentation in the Market • North America -- ROW • Small Operators -- Large Operators • Urban -- Suburban -- Rural • Large/Medium/Small Business SOHO/Residential • “Pipe Size” for early NA customers is larger than expected • Leads to early adopters going for dedicated pipes instead of shared BW systems • Larger NA operators consuming their resources trying to get large pipes to these large customers • This drives the need for different solutions for different markets

  5. North America -- ROW International deployments outpacing North America • Hanaro Telecom • 10,000 subscribers in less than 1 year • New subscribers at 1000 per week • Why the difference? • Early PMP solutions tend to suit the ROW market better than US Market • Competing service offerings not as strong • Tariffs are higher • Regulatory constraints some time limit use of other technologies (P-P microwave, unbundled copper, fiber plant)

  6. Alcatel Deployments Europe BroadNet Callino, Cegetel, E-Plus, Eltele, ETI, Firstmark, Formus, Intracom/ETE, KPN, LandTel, ProFuturo, Retevision, Skypoint, Telecel, Telefonica, Telenor, Telenordia, Teracom, Tesion, Westgate North America Farmers Telephone Maxlink, Prime Companies Regional IOCs Asia Pacific CESEC, Clear, Hanaro, Keppel, Korea Telecom, Pacific Internet, Optus, Smartone Middle East, Africa Eurocom Latin America Bellsouth Int., Convergence, Entel, Mobicom, Pegaso, Rey Moreno (Telefonica), Techtel Over 100 networks in deployment Over 1700 Base stations installed

  7. What HAS happened • Deployments ARE underway - • to date, primarily high capacity PTP in the US • lots of PMP in the rest of the world • We’re coming up the learning curve • Vendors ARE delivering solutions for the different requirements • New features ARE coming out • Equipment cost IS dropping • But the Market Is still evolving

  8. What has NOT Happened • I have not become independently wealthy • No major deployments of PMP in the U.S. • As yet no large US operator is championing multipoint wireless as a primary national access mode (but we are getting close) • No indisputable proof yet of PMP business case

  9. Why Not? • No major PMP deployments in the U.S. • Vendors: • Lack of deployable equipment to fit the various needs • No longer a problem as of this year • Operators: • Some are in a “wait and see” mode • Many are fully consumed with other parts of the business and deploying other technologies such as point-to-point microwave, fiber, DSL,……

  10. Why Not ? • No large operator is championing multipoint wireless • Other opportunities consuming resources • Point-to-Multipoint is a small-medium business technology -- much of their current business is medium-large businesses PTP. • Acquisition of roof top rights is consuming and fatiguing • “Once you have the roof - put lots of bits to it” • No proof yet of PMP business case • We’re too early in the rollout curve to see the proof

  11. WHEN will it happen? • Worldwide deployments will escalate quickly in 2001 • North America PTP and PMP deployments will likely be slow the first half of the year • Economic conditions • Availability of capital • Users waiting on proof of technology • 2nd half COULD be the start of a steep ramp-up

  12. WHAT will MAKE it happen Enablers • Vendors perform on product delivery • Volume • Features • Cost • We need a good reference system in North America • Which technology is irrelevant • Reasonable size with 100s of subscribers • Large operator endorsement of technology

  13. Summary & Predictions • Significant deployments outside North America • Quick increase in N.A. during second half of year • Consolidations will occur - both Operators & Vendors • There will be some casualties • Surprising new operators will come on the scene

  14. Summary & Predictions • Ramp-up similar to other new technologies (ADSL) • Our challenge is to prove our technology works • Wireless has many skeptics • No large operator endorsement • IT WILL HAPPEN - TIMING IS THE QUESTION

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