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NCEP Transition & Operations: Forecast Services & Research Linking Overview

Explore the transition process from research to operations at NCEP, including the Climate Test Bed and Climate Forecast System. Learn about the pathways to providing seamless forecast services and engaging diverse user communities for efficient climate predictions.

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NCEP Transition & Operations: Forecast Services & Research Linking Overview

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  1. 30th Annual Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop: Opening Remarks Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” The Pennsylvania State University October 24, 2005

  2. Overview • Linking the Climate Test Bed (CTB) to: • Other NOAA components • Transition process from research to operations • Relationship of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to the CTB • Status of computer support

  3. Central Guidance Local Offices The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services Observe To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, … Process Products & Forecast Services Respond & Feedback Distribute IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback

  4. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process R&D 1 • Large “volume” of R&D, • funded through AOs, • Agency Labs… • Smaller set of R&D • products suitable for • operations. • Systematic transition steps. • New products can serve • diverse and expanding • user community. • Delivery to diverse USER • community 2 Transition from research to operations/ applications NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process 3 N C E P 4 Operations User Community 5

  5. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process R&D OGP 1 • Large “volume” of R&D, • funded through AOs, • Agency Labs… • Smaller set of R&D • products suitable for • operations. • Systematic transition steps. • New products can serve • diverse and expanding • user community. • Delivery to diverse USER • community 2 Transition from research to operations/ applications NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process 3 N C E P CFS CTB 4 Operations User Community CPC 5

  6. NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Effort Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS Test Beds JCSDA CTB WRF DTC JHT Operations R&D Delivery Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

  7. Climate Forecast System Status • Components • Atmosphere: GFS(2003) T62/L64 • Ocean: MOM3 GFDL Ocean Model • Coupled once/day • Run 2X Day out to 9 months • The website for real time data retrieval is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst/ • The climatological data is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/ • Complete documentation available at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf

  8. Climate Forecast System Computer Support • CFS Seasonal Operational Runs - ~10% of operational machine • Computational support for monthly forecast is in place ~ 10% of operational machine • Support for Climate Test Bed • Computational support being applied to approved projects (1/3 of “research” computer)

  9. Issues/Challenges/Highlights • Balances between external and transitional work • Reanalysis support • Multi-model Ensemble and related application • NCEP, NESDIS, ARL will move into the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in early 2008

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