Towards a New Appearance Sensitivity Estimate (S. Brice, J. Monroe, and MHS)

1. Towards a New Appearance Sensitivity Estimate(S. Brice, J. Monroe, and MHS) Methods for Sensitivity Estimates • Previous Jocelyn's "Sensplot" routines using generated energy dist.(derived from proposal "osc_limit" routines.) • Counting experiment with min/max energy cuts • Uses generated energies but approx. visible energy cuts • New "Oscitivity" program using visible energy distributions from Framework • Counting experiment with visible energy cuts • New "Efit_Oscitivity" program using visible energy distributions • Fits to Framework visible energy distributions of background and signal Today Sept.

2. Method for Calculating Sensitivity • Generate Nuance files for all background signal sources: •  events, e events, and e osc. events • Reconstruct these Nuance files using the Framework • Produce ntuples with appropriate generated and reconst. variables • Normalize files using stot to find associated pot for each • Apply proposed cuts on reconstructed variables to get simulated final sample • Use final sample to calculate sensitivities and energy distributions

3. Initial Sensitivity Studies using Stancu Fitter • Files: • nuance  events (boone_numu.hbook 7.3E19 pot) • nuance e events (boone_nue.hbook 1.37E21 pot) • nuance e osc. events - high Dm2 = 1 eV2 (boone_hidm2.hbook 1.46E19) • nuance e osc. events - low Dm2 = 0.4 eV2 (boone_lodm2.hbook 5.56E21) • Cuts: Thits>200Vhits<6num_subev=1fitvrad<500 cmemunet>0.989epinet>0.85fitke<750 MeVpi0mass<90 MeV Higher Statistics files available soon. Standard Cuts Neural Net Cuts (From S. Brice Study) Extra Cuts

4. Normalize to events with RGen < 500 cm and with no other cuts Neutrino flux from Mars (J. Monroe, TN-56) Muon neutrino flux: 3.71 x 10-10 nm/cm2/pot Electron neutrino flux: 1.67 x 10-12 ne/cm2/pot ne nm stot (x10-36cm2) En (GeV) Normalization Nuance stot (G. Zeller)

5. All event rates scaled to 1.0E21 pot Hi Dm2 = 1.0 eV2 LSND Range sin22q = 0.002 - 0.006 events = 88 to 265 Lo Dm2 = 0.4 eV2 LSND Range sin22q = 0.01 - 0.024 events = 122 to 292 Results

6. Comparison to Old Party Line Expect: 1000*.24/.50*317/500 = 300

7. Signal ne Bkgnd p0 mid-ID Signal / Background Energy Distribution EGenerated EVisible Dm2 = 0.4 eV2sin22q = 0.02 Dm2 = 0.4 eV2sin22q = 0.02 Dm2 = 1.0 eV2sin22q = 0.004 Dm2 = 1.0 eV2sin22q = 0.004

8. Generated E distribution Reconstructed E distribution Oscillation Signal Energy Distribution(Low Dm2 vs High Dm2) Low Dm2 Low Dm2 High Dm2 High Dm2

9. nuance numu events Sequential Application of Cuts

10. nuance numu events Before Cuts After Cuts

11. nuance nue events Sequential Application of Cuts

12. nuance nue events After Cuts Before Cuts

13. nuance e osc. events - low Dm2 Sequential Application of Cuts

14. nuance e osc. events - low Dm2 Before Cuts After Cuts

15. NC p0 systematics: Cross section uncertainties Extrapolation to observed region Detector Modeling of selection cuts Experimental checks: Use observed p0 data to check rate, distributions, and extrapolations. Estimate 10%  5% Jen/Hiro recent work has statistics to do 5% Intrinsic ne systematic: m-decay (46%) Constrained by measured nm spectrum 7%  5% K+ decay (34%) E910 and HARP dataestimate 8%  5% LMC Timing isolation High E data events K0 decay (20%) Some data ~6%? E910 possible data source to analyze Estimate 8%  5%plus systematics associated with ne selection and measurement Systematic Uncertainties(The Hard Part) Need much more work here to have defensible numbers for the PAC

16. Deliverables for New Sensitivity(S. Brice)

17. Mars nmflux Mars ne flux ne efficiency = 25% Intrinsic ne systematic = 10% NC p0 systematic = 10% Sensitivity for "Current" Parameters Ratio stat_err/sys_err: With 5x1020 = 80% With 1x1021 = 57%

18. 1.6 x Mars nm flux 1.6 x Mars ne flux ne efficiency = 35% ne systematic = 7% NC p0 systematic = 7% Sensitivity with "Conservative" Improvements Ratio stat_err/sys_err: With 5x1020 = 83% With 1x1021 = 60%

19. 1.6 x Mars nm flux 1.6 x Mars ne flux ne efficiency = 50% ne systematic = 5% NC p0 systematic = 5% Sensitivity with "Realistic" Improvements Ratio stat_err/sys_err: With 5x1020 = 100% With 1x1021 = 71%

20. 1.6 x Mars nm flux except for p0 0.8 x Mars ne flux ne efficiency = 50% ne systematic = 5% NC p0 systematic = 5% Sensitivity with "Bill's Dream" Improvements Ratio stat_err/sys_err: With 5x1020 = 140% With 1x1021 = 100%

21. Conclusions: • Reconstruction is doing fairly well and baseline results are getting moving towards what is necessary • Fluxes • Probably can assume that we will have x1.6 Mars flux for nm • Intrinsic ne fluxes: need central value and estimated syst. error • Cross sections • Need estimate of uncertainty on our determination of QE xsec • NC p0/ QE xsec ratio: how well will we constrain this • Event Selection • Need uncertainties in selection efficiency and resolutions due to MC (i.e. optical model...) uncertainties • What can we assume as to better ne efficiency and p0 rejection? • Develop "party line" for PAC report

22. Low dm2 High dm2 Generated E distribution (signal and bkgnd)

23. High dm2=1 eV2 Low dm2 = 0.1 eV2 Normalization Histograms for Osc.

24. Remove Evis<750 MeV Cut

25. Egen distributions for osc. events Dm2 = 0.1 eV2 Dm2 = 1.0 eV2

26. dm2 = 0.1 sin2th = 0.1 (numu/300) dm2 = 1.0 sin2th = 0.004 (numu/300) Generated Numu Energy Distributions(with/without oscillations)

27. boone_hidm2.hbook Find best fit with Dm2=1.0 eV2 boone_lodm2.hbook Find best fit with Dm2=0.4 eV2 Empirical Determination of Dm2 nm nm nmosc formula nmosc formula nmlodm2 nmhidm2 En(GeV) En(GeV)