Wargaming As A Value-Added Approach to Collaboration

1. Wargaming As A Value-Added Approach to Collaboration Andy Hernandez Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army Director of Wargaming, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School Military Faculty, Operations Research Department ahernand@nps.edu (831) 656-2663

2. Purpose Offer wargaming as a mechanism for the International Maritime Security Enterprise to collaborate on critical issues.

3. Agenda • Wargaming Overview • Maritime Security and Wargaming • NPS Wargaming • Possible Tools

4. Definitions war • game: Webster 1. An often physical or electronic simulation of a military operation involving two or more forces and using rules, data, and procedures designed to depict an actual or assumed situation. 2. A simulation of a proposed plan of action or a strategy, intended to test its validity when challenged. wargame: DoD A simulation, by whatever means, of a military operation involving two or more opposing forces, … using rules, data and procedures designed to depict an actual or assumed real life situation. war game: Military modeling; Campaign Analysis Course A war game is a model [of warfare] involving one or more players.

5. The Purpose of Wargames • Wargames played for two general purposes: • Educational  Experience • Analytical  Information • Educational: • Goal: provide decision makers experience; training • Enhance command and staff decision making ability • Understand conditions that affect decision making process • Examples: • Obtain and receive impressions about merits of operational plan, command structures, forces, weapon systems, area of operation • Develop procedures to incorporate new system into operations • Analytical • Goal: collect information and data for decision making • Emphasis on factors that impact conditions in decision making process • Example: Count the number of target detections that a specific distribution of UAVs in a force structure

6. Wargaming Uses • Understand the nature of war; the processes of combat • Wargames do not compute the outcomes of processes • Organizing tool: • Design process ties operational focus of participants • Understand player interactions in game • Translate player knowledge into concrete terms • Exploratory tool: • Understand effects of operations on human decisions • Understand effects of human decisions on operations • Incorporates randomness and unquantifiable factors • Identifies possible sources of unquantifiable factors

7. Maritime Security & Wargaming • Perceived Intent: • Initiate joint projects • Involve multinational agencies • Allow accessibility without compromising security • Develop processes, protocols, policies …that allows international operations • Current Status: • Technological collaboration initiated and ongoing • Operational collaboration an open issue • Collaborative Event: • Proof of concept • Meaningful exercise

8. NPS Wargaming Vision Teach how wargaming can be a supporting branch to DoD, international, civilian and governmental exercises and research initiatives. Provide students practical experience to understand its potential, limitations, and applications. Grow a wargaming capability that is value-added.

9. Wargaming Efforts • Incorporated into Operations Research Curriculum • OA4604: Wargaming Analysis • Open to all Services and International students • Offer to MOVES, Systems Engineering, Defense Analysis, Information Sciences, School for International Graduate Studies • Considered support for NPS research efforts • Maritime Domain Awareness Initiative • Joint Battle Management Command & Control • Joint IED Defeat Task Force • Facilitator for student events and theses • Gap analysis • CONOPS development for Integrated Student Projects • Excursions on past studies • Comprehension/Education of important operations • Ad Hoc support

10. NPS Wargaming Infrastructure • Organization and Staff • Proponent: Dean GSOIS • Wargaming Committee • Chairman: Director of Research, Meyer Institute • Director • Stakeholders: On and Off-Campus • Matrix (Cells) approach through stakeholders • Technicians through Information Technology department • Key Resource: students • Partnerships & Habitual Relationships • Air Force Institute of Technology • Temasek Defence Systems Institute • Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories • Facilities & Equipment • Wargaming Labs: Unclassified and Classified • M&S: JCATS, MTWS, web-enabled JTLS • Future Plans: Agent-based models

11. Leaning Forward in the Foxhole • Genesis: integrated student project • Port Security Scenarios: • Small boat attack on port • Lear jet as a missile • Inland attack on port facilities and personnel • Blue Water Scenarios: • Small boat attack on ship • Piracy • Purpose: • Examine procedures for mitigating attacks if new systems involved • Educate new personnel; Share lessons • Conduct excursions • On-Station Tool: Current database built in Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) • Collaborative Tool: in progress to develop scenarios in web-enabled Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS)

12. A Web-Enabled JTLS Event • PACOM exercise recently completed a fully web-enabled JTLS operation • Servers and Clients: • Server: JFCOM Facilities, Virginia • Over 100 clients connected through web • Players in… • Camp Smith, HI • Okinawa, Japan • Hurlburt Airfield, FL • Other Simulations in Exercise: • EADSIM, JDLM, TBMCS, … • HLA connection • JCATS and JTLS are federated

13. Brief History of JTLS • JTLS: Joint Theater Level Simulation • Military Use: • Proponent: Joint Warfighting Center, JFCOM • Provides the COP and is primary tool for major exercises • Used in one or more exercises in many Combatant Commands • Main use in theater-level exercises • International Tool: • Over a dozen countries other than the U.S. own JTLS, including Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, and Australia • Hold coalition exercises annually • Established investments, buy-in, and credibility

14. JTLS Functionality • Models All Major Air, Naval, & Land Operations • Models Intel, Logistics, All Non-Combat Operations • Time Stepped, Event Driven, Inherently Interactive • Includes Stochastic and Deterministic Events • Analysis: Forces, Oplans, New Systems, Etc. • Designed for Distributed Play With Many Players • Run on Single Laptop or Support a Major Exercise • Designed for Multi-sided, Coalition Operations

15. Pliable Force Structure • Maximum of 10 Sides • Each unit belongs to a side • Each side has both a command and a support hierarchy • Player-defined Relationships with other sides • Enemy, Suspect, Friend, Neutral • Not necessarily symmetric • All units on a side share perception of the opposing side • Number of Factions on each side is almost limitless. • Units on each side are divided into Factions • Factions share common capabilities • IFF capability, Organic asset intel collection capability • Susceptibility to PSYOPS, Supply Convoy attributes • Many other capability factors • Units can change Factions • Factions can change sides • ROEs: Fire, Hold Fire, No Fire • Not necessarily the same for all units on a Side • Area-specific, Unit specific, Mission specific, etc.

16. AFFECTS FORCE INTERACTIONS • Coalition Air Operations • Joint Naval Operations • Lanchester Combat • Coalition Logistics • Sharing Intelligence • Others Enemy Blue Forces Red Forces Enemy • Non-Symmetric • Based on Perceptions Suspect Neutral Neutral Friend White Forces Enemy Orange Forces Friend Enemy Reflects Real World Complexities Friend Force Side Relationships

17. Moving Forward • Determine if a collaborative event is desired and warranted: cost benefit analysis • Understand the objectives that the event may address • Scale the event or events • Identify key players • Consider enabling tools that can assist the effort • Plan and coordinate

18. Summary Wargaming is an approach that can assist the International Maritime Security Enterprise address interoperability issues.