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Status Quo Thinking

Status Quo Thinking. More paper is better!. “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” – Lord Kelvin, 1895 “A severe depression like that of 1920-1921 is outside the range of probability.” – Harvard Economic Society, 1929

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Status Quo Thinking

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  1. Status Quo Thinking More paper is better! “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” – Lord Kelvin, 1895 “A severe depression like that of 1920-1921 is outside the range of probability.” – Harvard Economic Society, 1929 “With only fifty foreign cars on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big stake in the U.S.” – Business Week, 1968 “I think there is a world market for about five computers.” – Thomas Watson - IBM, 1943 “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” – Ken Olson - DEC, 1977 “We don’t like [the Beatles’] sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out.” – Decca Recording, 1962 “No matter what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught napping.” – Secretary of the Navy, December 4, 1941 Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997

  2. USC Business Development Model Scenario Description Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997 U N I V E R S I T Y O F S O U T H E R N C A L I F O R N I A E N G I N E E R I N G T E C H N O L O G Y T R A N S F E R C E N T E R

  3. Organizational Chart USC Engineering Technology Transfer Center Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997

  4. Northeast Mid-West Mid-Atlantic Far West Mid-Continent Southeast The RTTC Network Weprovide: • Affiliates in Every State • Information Dissemination • Technical Assistance • Regional Incubators Technology Licensing • Cooperative R&D • Reimbursable Technology Development • Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997

  5. Innovation • “There is a better and easier way to do everything — find it!” • - Thomas Edison • Disciplined method for imagining the future by examining the joint simultaneous impact of several uncertainties • Attempts to identify patterns and clusters • Particularly good when examining revolutionary change • Compensate for underprediction (most common error by institutions) and overprediction (most common error by futurists) • Looks to plot a middle ground by using: • incremental expansion of trends (momentum) • possible states of a highly uncertain factor (interest rates) Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997

  6. Management Trends Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997

  7. Industry Clusters for the Far West Region Seattle Reno Aerospace/Defense Tourism and Recreation Richland Modesto Business Services Agriculture and Food Products San Francisco Bay Area Electronics Machinery and Systems Merced Agriculture and Food Products Biomedical Products Las Vegas Los Angeles Tourism and Recreation Home andLifestyle Products Aerospace/Defense Electronics Machineryand Systems Fashion, Appareland Textiles Biomedical Products Health Services Business Services Agriculture and Food Processing Info/Media and Entertainment Energy and Process Materials Educational Services Forest Products Tourism and Recreation Metals Financial Services Construction Products Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: Sept. 5, 1997 Transportation and Distribution

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