CFI Workshop 5 Core Topic 10 Risk Management for Flight Instructors October 1, 2011

1. CFI Workshop 5 Core Topic 10 Risk Managementfor Flight Instructors October 1, 2011

2. A Crosswind Accident? The pilot lost control after the aircraft touched down on one wheel, swerved sharply, hit several runway lights, left the runway, and came to rest in the airport boundary fence. The winds were at 60-degree crosswind to the runway at 32 kts with gusts to 40. What caused this accident?

3. 2010 Joseph T. Nall Report “Accidents occurring during takeoff, climb, maneuvering, descent, approach, and landing tend to result more directly from deficient airmanship, though it may have been faulty decision-making that placed the pilots in situations beyond their skills.”

4. NTSB CEN09FA393 Probable Cause: The pilot’s poor judgment/decision making in attempting the no-flap takeoff, his failure to comply with weight limitations, and his failure to calculate the airplane’s performance under existing conditions.

5. Risk Management: A Definition The part of the decision-making process that relies on • Situational awareness • Problem recognition, and • Good judgment to reduce risks associated with each flight.

6. Teaching Risk Management • Identifying hazards • Assessing risk • Understanding its time-critical nature • Including risk-management controlsin training

7. Teaching Judgment We’re trying to answer the enduring questions: • “Can you teach judgment?” • “If yes, how?”

8. Analogous to Checklists Think of (and teach) risk-management as another aircraft system or phase of flight with a checklist/procedure to follow. • 5 Ts • GUMPS Run the risk-management checklist at important phases of flight (including preflight) and whenever the situation changes or new information arrives.

9. Risk Management Before you make decisions, you must: 1. Identify risk factors (hazards) 2. Assess their likelihood 3. Evaluate their severity

10. Defining Terms: Hazard • A present condition, event, object, or circumstance that could lead to or contribute to an unplanned or undesired event such as an accident. • Is it a source of danger?

11. Defining Terms: Risk The future impact of a hazard that is not controlled or eliminated. 1. Future uncertainty created by the hazard. 2. If it involves skill sets, the same situation may yield different risks. 3. Could also be described as the “degree of uncertainty.”

12. Types of Risk • Total Risk: The sum of identified and unidentified risks. • Identified Risk: Risk that has been determined. • Unidentified Risk: Often identified only after an accident. • Unacceptable Risk: Can’t be tolerated. Must be eliminated or controlled. • Acceptable Risk: Identified but managed. • Residual Risk: Remains after mitigation attempts.

13. Risk Management • The method used to control, eliminate, or reduce hazards. • Unique to each individual based on skills, knowledge, training, and experience. • A decision-making process designed to systematically identify hazards, assess risk, and determine the best course of action.

14. Risk Assessment Matrix

15. Risk Thresholds

16. Risk Assessment 3 SM visibility—is it a risk? • For a student pilot? • 100 hr VFR-only private pilot? • 500 hr IFR pilot flying in the mountains • 1,000 hr IFR pilot with 5 hr experience in a glass cockpit? • 1,500 hr ATP pilot flying in busy airspace? Photo AOPA Gallery

17. A Simple Test Ask three basic questions: • Is it safe? • Is it legal? • Does it make sense?

18. Where to Land? • Flying west at 10,500MSL • To Portland, Oregon • Cessna 172 (TAS 110 KIAS) • Snow showers and reduced visibility • 5:35 pm local time • Fuel remaining is about 90 minutes. What will you do? VFR-Only 200-hr private pilot

19. 10,500MSL Cessna 172 5:35pm local time 90 minutes fuel

20. Time Critical Framework 5:35pm local time 60 minutes fuel

21. What Would You Do? 5:35pm local time 90 minutes fuel

22. ADM DEFINED Aeronautical Decision Making is a systematic approach to the mental process use by pilots to consistently determine the best course of action in response to a given set of circumstances.

23. Risk Management Controls • Identify hazardous attitudes. • Recognize and cope with stress. • Develop risk-assessment skills. • Use all available resources. • Evaluate effectiveness of decisions.

24. Hazardous Attitudes and Antidotes Anti-authority – Don’t tell me. • Follow the rules, they are usually right Impulsivity – Do something – do it now. • Not so fast, think first Invulnerability – It won’t happen to me. • It could happen to me. Macho – I can do it. • Taking chances is foolish. Resignation – What’s the use? • I can make a difference.

25. Risk Identification PAVE Checklist: • Pilot • Aircraft • enVironment • External Pressures www.skyvector.com

26. Evaluating Pilot’s Risk Management Assess the potential risk associated with planned flight during preflight planning and in flight. • Explain risk elements with the given scenario and how each was assessed. • Use a tool, such as PAVE to assess the risk elements. Pilot – Aircraft – enVironment – External Factors

27. D.E.C.I.D.E. 3P D = Detect Perceive E = Estimate Process C = Choose Perform I = Identify (Continuous Loop) D = Do E = Evaluate Photo: Quest Kodiak 100

28. Evaluating Pilot’s Decision Making • Use a decision-making process (such as the DECIDE model) when making decisions that affect the outcome of the flight. Pilot should be able to explain factors and alternatives. Detect – Estimate – Choose – Identify – Do – Evaluate • Recognize and explain any hazardous attitudes that may have influenced a decision. • Decide and execute an appropriate course of action to handle any situation and lead to a safe and successful conclusion of the flight.

29. Including Risk Management inFlight Training • Situations to stimulate decision making • Practice problem solving • Create circumstances that make unsafe judgments look appealing

30. Do You Teach ADM? Seen this?

31. Scenarios According to the Aviation Instructor’s Handbook (p. 2-26), a good scenario: 1. Has a clear set of objectives. 2. Is tailored to the needs of the student. 3. Capitalizes on the nuances of the local environment.

32. Scenario Database At 7:00PM, after an exhausting 3-day business meeting, you load the rental plane and file VFR for a 2-hr flight. You discover your only pair of reading glasses was left back at the hotel. You have no problem seeing distance but can’t read panel gauges or a chart very well. Weather is 3,500 ceiling, 5SM visibility with 15 kt crosswinds at your designation. If you depart in the next 20 minutes you can land before dark. You decide to: • Depart and fly to land before dark. Purchase a new pair of glasses at your destination. • Call the hotel, if they have your glasses go get them and takeoff late this evening. • Call the hotel, if they do not have your glasses, spend the night. Tomorrow purchase a new pair and fly takeoff. • Call the hotel, if they have your glasses, go get them, spend the night and takeoff in the morning. From: www.avhf.com

33. Sources of Scenarios • FAA-Industry Training Standards (FITS) • The generic syllabi at the FITS website include a variety of scenarios for VFR and IFR pilots. • You can easily modify and adapt them for your students and customers. • http://www.faa.gov/training_testing/training/fits/training/

34. FITS Website

35. I’M SAFE Checklist

36. FAASTeam CFI Workshop #5 Risk Management Questions? Comments? Ideas? Quiz time

37. Risk Management Question #1 Which of the following are hazardous attitudes? a) Tormenter b) Macho c) Recluse d) Quarrelsome

38. Risk Management Question #2 Effective workload management ensures that essential operations are accomplished by planning, prioritizing, and sequencing tasks. True or False?

39. Risk Management Question #3 Is it a “Hazard” or a “Risk” that is a present condition, event, object, or circumstance that could lead to or contribute to an unplanned or undesired event such as an accident?

40. Risk Management Question #4 An excellent tool in making good aeronautical decisions is the D.E.C.I.D.E model. What are the six attributes of the model? • Detect, Estimate, Choose, Identify, Do, Evaluate • Drop, Evacuate, Criticize, Indemnify, Decimate, Exacerbate • Determine, Eliminate, Choose, Initiate, Divert, Evacuate • None of the above Answers follow ~

41. Risk Management Question #1 Which of the following are hazardous attitudes? a) Tormenter b) Macho c) Recluse d) Quarrelsome Answer ~ b) Macho – Pilot’s Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge

42. Risk Management Question #2 Effective workload management ensures that essential operations are accomplished by planning, prioritizing, and sequencing tasks. True or False? Answer ~ True – Pilot’s Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge

43. Risk Management Question #3 Is it a “Hazard” or a “Risk” that is a present condition, event, object, or circumstance that could lead to or contribute to an unplanned or undesired event such as an accident? Answer ~ “Hazard” – Risk Management Handbook

44. Risk Management Question #4 An excellent tool in making good aeronautical decisions is the D.E.C.I.D.E model. What are the six attributes of the model? Detect, Estimate, Choose, Identify, Do, Evaluate Drop, Evacuate, Criticize, Indemnify, Decimate, Exacerbate Determine, Eliminate, Choose, Initiate, Divert, Evacuate None of the above Answer ~ a) Detect, Estimate, Choose, Identify, Do, Evaluate

45. Regulatory, Policy, and Publications Changes and Updates

46. FAASafety.gov

47. Official Sources from FAA FAA Website: • Air Traffic Plans and Publications • AIM • Pilot/Controller Glossary • Flight Standards Information Management System (FSIMS) • FAA inspector’s handbook with links to regs and other documents

48. AIM Updates

49. AIM Updates

50. FSIMS