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10-year vision for Solar/Heliosphere area

10-year vision for Solar/Heliosphere area.

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10-year vision for Solar/Heliosphere area

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  1. 10-year vision for Solar/Heliosphere area Scenario: Simulations of the time-dependent corona and solar wind based on incoming and archived solar magnetograph data, and of CMEs based on coronagraph observation-inspired cone models can be regularly run. Details of the CME ejecta can be obtained for select cases. SEP fluxes can be calculated as an additional product when shocks are present. The geospace response to the 1 AU plasma and field conditions can be modeled.

  2. 10-year vision for Solar/Heliosphere area • NOAA SEC is using selected versions of the simulations based on their practicality for regular applications. CISM members participate in an advisory capacity. • NASA and NSF are continuing to provide solar magnetograph and coronagraph observations. • The CISM models have been validated with ACE, SOHO, STEREO, Solar-B and SDO measurements and are used to interpret their observations. The LWS Solar Sentinels mission is ready for launch, and expects to use the global simulations to tie together its distributed multipoint measurements.

  3. 10-year vision for Solar/Heliosphere area (cont.) • The Exploration Initiative is considering using the CISM SEP model to forecast radiation hazards at the Moon and Mars • Planetary Mission Scientists are using the CISM CORHEL models to study the solar wind interactions when upstream in-situ measurements are not available • Semiempirical Solar XUV flux modeling based on the coronal code results is available as an option for input to the ionospheric code in lieu of indices like F10.7

  4. 10-year vision for Solar/Heliosphere area (cont.) • The inclusion of flare site physics is under investigation • The inclusion of the atmospheric chemistry impacts of solar XUV variations and SEP precipitation (e.g. on NO and ozone) in the CISM CMIT code is underway-adding an additional element of physical coupling • The codes have been submitted to community-accessible archives (e.g. CCMC, NCAR)

  5. Advantages of an NCAR Connection: • Makes CISM Models available to and through the NCAR Community Climate System Model framework portal • Enables future coupling of CISM models to WACCM, hence to study of nonradiative effects on climate

  6. Rationale • Makes use of established NSF-supported Community Model framework • In-line with mission of NCAR to produce state of art models coupled across boundaries (on topics part of the NCAR domain) • Local expertise present at HAO • An NCAR director who could help to enable this • Some CISM models already on the system • Creates an NSF institution legacy of the NSF-supported CISM effort

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