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Heat and Health: Methodological Considerations for Warning System Development

Heat and Health: Methodological Considerations for Warning System Development. UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE. SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY LABORATORY. U. D. Washington, D.C. May 2005. Dr. Laurence S. Kalkstein Synoptic Climatology Laboratory Center for Climatic Research University of Delaware.

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Heat and Health: Methodological Considerations for Warning System Development

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  1. Heat and Health: MethodologicalConsiderations for Warning SystemDevelopment UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY LABORATORY U D Washington, D.C.May 2005 Dr. Laurence S. KalksteinSynoptic Climatology Laboratory Center for Climatic ResearchUniversity of Delaware

  2. How Are These Systems Unique? • A custom-made system is developed for each urban area, based on specific meteorology for each locale, as well as urban structure and demographics • These systems are based on actual weather-health relationships, as determined by daily variations in human mortality • These systems are based on much more than just temperature and humidity

  3. Systems We are Presently Operating USA • Chicago, IL • Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX* • Dayton/Cincinnati, OH • Jackson/Meridian, MS • Lake Charles/Alexandria, LA • Little Rock/Pine Bluff, AR • Memphis, TN/Tupelo, MS • New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA • Philadelphia, PA* • Phoenix, AZ • Portland, OR • Seattle, WA • St. Louis, MO • Shreveport/Monroe, LA • Washington, D.C. • Yuma, AZ International • Bologna, Italy • Florence, Italy • Milan, Italy • Naples, Italy • Palermo, Italy • Rome, Italy • Shanghai, China • Turin, Italy • Toronto, Canada * New five-day forecast systems based on point forecast matrices

  4. Maximum Temperature vs. Daily Mortality: New York and Jacksonville, Florida New York Jacksonville

  5. Steps in System Development • Step 1: Determine air masses daily over a city using newly-developed Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) • Step 2: Are any of these air masses ‘offensive’? Characteristics: *Statistically significant higher mortality *Greater within air mass standard deviation in mortality • Step 3: What aspects of the offensive air mass make it most detrimental to human health?

  6. SSC Air Mass Types • DP Dry Polar (cP) • DM Dry Moderate (Pacific) • DT Dry Tropical (cT) • MP Moist Polar (mP) • MM Moist Moderate (Overrunning) • MT Moist Tropical (mT) • MT+ Moist Tropical Plus • TR Transition between air masses ---------------- Sheridan, S.C., 2002: The redevelopment of a weather-type classification scheme for North America. Int. J. Climatology, 22, 51-68. Kalkstein, L.S., C.D. Barthel, J.S. Greene and M.C. Nichols, 1996. A New Spatial Synoptic Classification: Application to Air Mass Analysis. Int. J. Climatology, 16, 983-1004.

  7. Characteristics of WashingtonAir Mass Types * Mean air mass frequency from 1 June through 31 August

  8. Removing Non-Climatological Noise from the Mortality Data

  9. Phoenix’s Rising Mortality

  10. Mean Deaths in Rome by Daystandardization is important

  11. Seattle (6%) +3.7 (8%) +4.7a (10%) Portland (6%) +3.0 (9%) +1.1a (4%) Washington (11%) +0.9 (4%) +1.7 (7%) New Orleans (2%) None +3.7 (9%) Phoenix (1%) +2.7* (7%) None Rome (11%) +6.2 (14%) +5.0 (12%) Shanghai (11%) None +42.4 (16%) Toronto (7%) +4.2 (11%) +4.0 (10%) Mean Mortality Increases Within Offensive Air Mass Types Location (Freq) DT MT+ a MT+ does not occur in Seattle or Portland; the moist air mass that is oppressive is MT. * DT+ air mass for Phoenix

  12. Development of Forecast Algorithms: Within-Air Mass Category Mortality Variations

  13. ROME MT+ mortality decreases through summer

  14. ROME DT mortality vs. morning temperature

  15. Steps That can be Taken When Alerts or Emergencies are Called 1. NWS alerts appropriate city agency (e.g., Department of Health, Office of Aging, etc.) 2. City develops (or already has in place) intervention plans 3. Effectiveness of system can be monitored in three manners, and improvements are implemented if there are shortcomings: --forecasting effectiveness (false positives or negatives) --accuracy in estimating health impacts of offensive weather --noting if we are saving lives.

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