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Jonathan Pershing

International Climate Policy Post-2012 Quantitative Tools and Negotiating Capacity A Review of WRI’s Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT) Beijing, China February, 2006. Jonathan Pershing Climate, Energy and Pollution Program World Resources Institute http://www.wri.org.

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Jonathan Pershing

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  1. International Climate Policy Post-2012Quantitative Tools and Negotiating Capacity A Review of WRI’s Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT)Beijing, ChinaFebruary, 2006 Jonathan Pershing Climate, Energy and Pollution ProgramWorld Resources Institute http://www.wri.org

  2. What is CAIT? WRI • A web-based information and analysis tool on global climate change developed by The World Resources Institute (WRI). • CAIT includes: • Data on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sources, plus other data and indicators relevant to climate change policy • Data for 186 countries (most UNFCCC Parties) and regions • Analysis tools (e.g., trend, sector, or gas analysis)

  3. http://cait.wri.org

  4. What is CAIT? (2) • Purposes • Promote greater access to information • Support decision-making processes and help build capacity • Provide common platform for data and analysis • Policy neutral • Available free to the public at http://cait.wri.org

  5. Data providers CDIAC RIVM IPCC IEA World Bank UNDP U.S. EPA U.S. EIA UNFCCC Houghton Acknowledgements • Funding providers • U.S. EPA, Government of Norway, Wallace Global Fund, Prospect Hill Foundation

  6. Data – Policy Linkage Working assumptions: • Information is the first step to solving any problem • Better information → better decisions • “Delivery system” matters • CAIT • Navigating the Numbers report

  7. Who is Using CAIT? ~5000 total users from 108 countries, December 2003 to present

  8. Using CAIT CAIT Screens

  9. Rank by national emissions total

  10. Bottom of the ranking: 186 countries

  11. Rank by per Capita emissions

  12. Choice of gases

  13. Other indicators Analyses possible Customize Displays

  14. Choosing Display Regions

  15. Vulnerability and Adaptation

  16. Some CAIT Results

  17. Policy-Relevant Implications • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation

  18. Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth % Percent change from 2000

  19. Policy-Relevant Implications • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation

  20. Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing

  21. Policy-Relevant Conclusions • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation

  22. Fixed targets: challenging in the context of massive uncertainty Projected CO2 Emissions Growth to 2025

  23. Policy-Relevant Conclusions • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation

  24. Historical Contributions: Major Data Constraints Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods

  25. Emissions per Capita: Consensus? GHG Emissions per Capita

  26. Fuel mix affects CO2 emissions Electric Power Sector

  27. Policy-Relevant Conclusions • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation

  28. GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

  29. International Sectoral Cooperation • Different “forms” of sectoral cooperation • How important is the sector? [% global GHGs] • Underlying rationale for sectoral cooperation • Promote participation • Avoid “leakage” • Promote even regulatory playing field (competitiveness) • Options for international cooperation

  30. Conclusions • Global trends are in the wrong direction • Address GHGs in context of big emitting countries and sectors • Int’l cooperation, investment, technology • No single indicator tells a complete story • Data does not point directly toward a solution • Nature and scale of problem • Diverse national circumstances

  31. Using CAIT http://cait.wri.org

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