DTC Management Board Meeting 17 th March 2011

1. DTC Management Board Meeting17th March 2011 Bill Kuo

2. Agenda • Change of MB membership • DTC AOP 2011 and Budget • Options to accommodate potential shortfalls • Looking ahead – AOP 2012 & beyond • DTC MB/SAB Meeting in the fall of 2011

3. Change of MB membership • Steve Koch will become the next Director of NSSL, and has stepped down from his position as the DTC Deputy Director for OAR and a member of MB, effective 16th March 2011. • Sandy MacDonald appointed ZoltanToth as the Acting DTC Deputy Director and a member of MB, replacing Steve, until a new GSD Director is identified.

4. DTC AOP 2011Draft Budget and Options

5. Introduction • DTC prepared a DRAFT AOP 2011 and budget in January 2011 • DTC AOP 2011 and budget were reviewed by DTC Management Board (MB) on 11-12 Jan 2011 • DTC MB recommended: • Be prepared for a 5% reduction in the OAR DTC funding • Do not spread the cuts across all tasks • Protect high-priority areas: • Tasks that are very close to demonstrating successful R2O (e.g., data assimilation and hurricane tasks) • Enhance testing and evaluation activities recommended by the DTC Science Advisory Board (SAB). • Don Berchoff asked DTC to prepare a strategy for additional 10% cut in OAR funding for AOP 2011 • AFWA funding $275K less then requested – tasks under AFWA funding reduced to match actual funding • Anticipate FY2012 budget will be even worse than 2011

6. AOP 2011 Budget Planning Assumptions

7. Changes in Tasks • Generalized names for task areas to reflect focus area rather than specific software packages • WRF  Mesoscale Modeling • HWRF  Hurricane • GSI  Data assimilation • MET  Verification • DET  Ensembles • Incorporated work related to NEMS into appropriate task areas (Mesoscale Modeling and Ensembles) • Incorporated work related to NOAA testbed collaborations (HMT and HWT) into appropriate task areas (Mesoscale Modeling, Verification and Ensembles) to ensure work undertaken through these collaborations contribute directly to the core DTC missions (a strong recommendation from the SAB)

8. AOP 2011 Tasks Testbed collaborations: HWT & HMT DTC activities focused on five key areas: Mesoscale Modeling, Hurricanes, Data Assimilation, Ensembles and Verification. HWT & HMT are cross-DTC special projects that contribute to identified focus areas.

9. Proposed AOP 2011 Budget Allocations (in K) **Includes $100 K from HFIP for diagnostic toolkit (which is an additional task requested by HFIP in FY 2011)

10. Proposed AOP 2011 FTE Allocations

11. Funding allocation breakdown between NCAR and GSD (in K)

12. Director’s Office: Proposed activities • Internal Communication • Implement tools to assist with task and staff coordination • Provide a framework for cross-coordination between over-lapping activities of major task areas • Coordinate strategic planning activities • External Communication • Continue making improvements to DTC website • Host MB, EC & SAB meetings and keep open channels of communication • DTC Visitor Program • Host visitors for 5 funded projects • Prepare a new AO & select next round of visitor projects • Provide support for upcoming workshops and tutorials

13. Mesoscale Modeling: Community Support • Proposed Activities • Maintain/Enhance WRF regression testing* • Continue on-going efforts in community support** • Finish preparations of community-UPP software package for distribution* • Extensively test, write documentation • Provide community support upon release • Anticipated major accomplishments • WRF release (v3.3 April 2011)** • Community-UPP version 1.0 release (April 2011)* • Bi-annual WRF Tutorials (July 2011, January 2012)** • Annual WRF Users Workshop (June 2011)* -in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*

14. Mesoscale Model: Testing and Evaluation • Proposed Activities • Continue expansion of RC testing and evaluation • Strengthen the foundation of DTC expertise with the NEMS software • Co-host with NCEP a physics workshop for mesoscale modeling • Use HMT-West research datasets to evaluate precipitation processes in operational and research models • Prepare publicationson DTC methodology and results from select test activities • Anticipated major accomplishments • New RC designations or retests, as appropriate • Functionally equivalent operational environment for WRF-based systems established at the DTC to assess new NWP methods • White paper outlining short-term and longer-term approaches for making significant progress toward improving physics parameterizations • Manuscript(s) submitted to appropriate peer-reviewed journal

15. Hurricanes: Proposed Activities • Continue HWRF community support. • Continue HWRF code management, keeping the evolving community and EMC versions of HWRF connected. • Upgrade DTC testing suite by adding HYCOM, UPP and ability to run high-resolution. • Perform extensive testing of HWRF. Actual tests TBD - could include changes in resolution and/or alternate physics. • Diagnostic activities: • Evaluate HWRF to understand weaknesses and sources of error. • Begin assembling a diagnostic toolbox for DTC and the community* *Pending HFIP funding.

16. Hurricanes: Anticipated Major Accomplishments • DTC HWRF Test Plan, in collaboration with EMC and HFIP, describing plans for tests to be conducted by DTC in 2011 and a protocol for how future tests will be determined • Hurricane Tutorial in April 2011 • HWRF Reference Configuration • Expanded WRF Community Code with addition of new developments for HWRF • Expanded HWRF Testing infrastructure on jet with the addition of new components (HYCOM and high-resolution) • Input to NCEP pre-implementation decisions through HWRF testing and evaluation at DTC

17. Data Assimilation:Proposed Activities • Community Code • Continue to provide support for Community GSI package • Continue to maintain Community GSI repository • Coordinate GSI Review Committee meetings and activities • Test (and adjust if necessary) procedure for managing R2O transition with input from GSI Review Committee • Testing and Evaluation • Conduct extensive tests of end-to-end system for GSI baseline (including comparison with WRF-Var) • Reassess the long term strategy for DA task

18. Data Assimilation:Anticipated Major Accomplishments • GSI Community Code • Annual Community GSI Tutorial/Workshop • GSI v3.0 release • GSI community contribution (R2O) procedure and implementation • Testing and Evaluation • Final report summarizing results of GSI and WRF-Var comparison experiments

19. Verification:Proposed Activities • MET Support • Semi-annual tutorials, expanded and improved • MET Development • Improved methods for verifying clouds • Research on methods for verifying through time • Improvements in ensemble methods in collaboration with DET, HWT, HMT, and HFIP • Expanded capabilities of METViewer • Prepare requirements document for tropical cyclone verification tools and develop software to meet basic requirements

20. Verification: Anticipated Major Accomplishments • MET Support • Improved Tutorials • Demonstration of MODE enhancements for Atmospheric River verification with HMT. • MET Development • MET software release • Improved ensemble, cloud, and time verification. • METViewer database and display release • Initial capability to verify hurricanes

21. Ensembles:Proposed Activities • Perform testing and evaluation of cycling perturbations technique • Contribute to next NCEP SREF implementation • Establish the capability to run different versions of NMMB under NEMS • Basic capability for model perturbation module • Continue development of Ensemble testbed User Interface (EUI) • Interface with NOAA Testbeds • Evaluate HMT ensemble with a focus on hydrometeorological variables • Evaluate HWT ensemble products and establish a basic capability for the product generation module based on the most promising techniques • Continue to engage community by co-organizing the 5th Ensemble User Workshop with NCEP

22. Ensembles:Anticipated Major Accomplishments • Test results and software for cycling initial perturbations • NMMB incorporated into DET under NEMS • Improved Ensemble User Interface • Report on HMT & HWT ensemble product evaluation • Hydromet & hazardous weather forecast products • Verification metric packages identified for hydromet & hazardous weather (in collaboration with HMT, OHD, NCEP, etc) • Requirements and plans for the statistical post-processing, product generation, and verification modules based on community input at 5th Ensemble User Workshop

23. DTC Organization & AOP 2010 Tasks WRF: WRF modeling system WRF for Hurricanes: HWRF, HFIP GSI: Grid-point Statistical Interpolation data assimilation system MET: Model Evaluation Tools HMT: Hydrometeorology Testbed collaboration HWT: Hazardous Weather Testbed collaboration DET: DTC Ensemble Testbed NEMS: NOAA Environmental Modeling System • Two major functions of DTC: • Provide support for community systems • Conduct testing and evaluation of community systems for research and operations

24. DTC FY 2010 Budget Allocations (in $K)

25. Comparison of AOP 2010 and 2011 *Tasks for which allocation is impacted by consolidation

26. HFIP Funding for DTC • HFIP provided funding of $346K for DTC AOP 2010. The funds are used primarily to support the community use of the HWRF modeling system, verification system development, and HWRF testing and evaluation. • For AOP 2011, we are requesting similar amount ($355K) for these tasks. In addition, HFIP asked DTC to take on the additional responsibility for: (i) assembling the diagnostic toolbox and (ii) making the diagnostic toolbox available to the community. We estimate the need for additional $100K for a diagnostic toolbox initial capability, which brings the total anticipated budget from HFIP to $455K.

27. Ensembles:Potential contributions to HFIP, NEXTGEN, & NUOPC Ensemble Testbed well positioned to contribute to multiple projects • HFIP– Collaborative development of HFIP regional ensemble system • Conduct periodic meetings with participants (up to 16 groups) • Develop prototype ensemble system based on consensus • Compile basic hurricane product generation algorithm package • NEXTGEN – Regional ensembles for data cube • Experimental real time CONUS SREF ensemble • Embedded fine scale CONUS ensemble for Convective Initiation (CI) • NUOPC – Support multiagency effort • Assemble advanced statistical post-processing toolkit & datasets for testing • DTC Ensemble Testbed’s potential roles • Engage with / support community in prototype system development • Testing & evaluation of prototype system • Transition to operations (outyears)

28. Strategy for additional 10% reduction • Additional 10% reduction in OAR funding would reduce the overall DTC budget by another $285K. • DTC will accommodate this reduction by: • Reducing community support for Mesoscale Modeling and Verification ($40 K). • Reduce frequency of tutorials from twice to once per year • Discontinue helpdesk support for NMM-E dynamic core • Reducing OAR allocation for Visitor Program ($50K) • This will likely reduce NSF’s corresponding contribution by $50K • Slowing down Ensembles task ($110K) • Slowing down Mesoscale Modeling & Hurricanes tasks ($85K)

29. AOP 2012 and beyond • It is anticipated that FY2012 budget will be even worse. What are the options to accommodate difficult budgets? • Seeking new funding opportunities: • Within the main sponsors (NWS, OAR, AFWA, NCAR, NSF) • DET can contribute to HFIP, NEXTGEN, and NUOPC • External funding sources? • There are possibility for external funding. But, this will come with hard deliverables and additional requirements. • Focus DTC’s effort into a few key areas

30. Next DTC MB Face-to-Face Meeting • Bill Lapenta suggested having a DTC MB solely focused on the outcome and accomplishments of DTC. • Given the budget situation, it is difficult to have too many meetings. • One possibility is to have the combined DTC MB/SAB meeting in the fall (September 2011) with expanded discussion on the outcome and accomplishments. • Feedback from DTC MB and SAB will then be incorporated into AOP 2012.