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Longer-Term Trends

Longer-Term Trends. Dian Seidel SPARC Temperature Trends Panel Meeting 19-21 July 2006 Abingdon. Outline. Datasets Considerations for our paper Recently published results Possible approaches for our paper. Datasets. Radiosonde Rocketsonde (Chantal?) Berlin Analysis (Ulrike)

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Longer-Term Trends

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  1. Longer-Term Trends Dian Seidel SPARC Temperature Trends Panel Meeting 19-21 July 2006 Abingdon

  2. Outline • Datasets • Considerations for our paper • Recently published results • Possible approaches for our paper

  3. Datasets • Radiosonde • Rocketsonde (Chantal?) • Berlin Analysis (Ulrike) • Reanalysis (not considering)

  4. Considerations • Summarize published results and/or make new calculations? • What can we learn (or report) that we didn’t know circa Ramaswamy et al. (Rev. Geophys. 2001)? • Effect of homogeneity adjustments on trends (Lanzante et al. 2003; Free et al., JGR 2005; Thorne et al., JGR 2005; CCSP 2006) • Time-segmented trends (Seidel and Lanzante, JGR 2004; Ramaswamy et al., Science 2006) • Details of volcanic signal (Free and Angell, JGR 2002; Santer et al., JGR 2001; above studies) • Statistical issues (Nishizawa and Yoden, JGR 2005) • Use only homogeneity-adjusted datasets?

  5. Radiosonde Datasets 1958-present(Update of 3/2005 Reading Report) • Hadley Atmospheric Temperature (HadAT) • UK Met Office (Thorne et al. JGR 2005) • 9 levels, including 300, 200, 150, 100, 50, and 30hPa • Gridded product • Adjustments based on Lanzante et al. (2003) and neighbor comparisons • Available now at http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadat/ • Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC) • NOAA (Free et al. JGR 2005) • 16 levels, including 300, 250, 200, 150, 100, 70, 50 and 30 hPa • Two datasets: • Large-scale (~30 deg bands) anomaly time series based on Lanzante et al. (2003) adjustments through 1979, then first-difference method and metadata • Station data with no adjustments post-1979, also 10-deg zonal data • Available now at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/cab/ratpac/index.php

  6. RATPAC and HadAT Coverage Source: CCSP report

  7. Source: CCSP report Note great discrepancy between datasets in early years – RATPAC more variable, with larger Agung signal.

  8. Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere For further information on CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1 http://www.climatescience.gov/

  9. Note good agreement between sonde (and surface) datasets compared with satellite.

  10. Possible Approaches • No discussion of pre-satellite errors • Pro: keeps paper shorter and more focused • Con: ignores developments with sonde data • Text-only review of recent literature • Pro: addresses new developments without adding much length • Con: doesn’t allow presentation of new analysis • Text-with-figure(s) presentation of some pre-1979 observations • Pro: most thorough approach • Cons: longer paper, more work

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