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ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN A CHANGED GLOBAL ECONOMY

ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN A CHANGED GLOBAL ECONOMY. MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES. WS (Bill) Cummings. PRESENTATION TO. Ref: J2478 | August 2011.

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ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN A CHANGED GLOBAL ECONOMY

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  1. ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN A CHANGED GLOBAL ECONOMY

  2. MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES WS (Bill) Cummings PRESENTATION TO Ref: J2478 | August 2011

  3. MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES WHAT WENT WRONG? WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

  4. WORKFORCE - FNQ STATISTICAL DIVISION (1) 2008 TO 2011

  5. Number DWELLING APPROVALSFAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

  6. $M VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALSFAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

  7. RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH - CAIRNS

  8. AVERAGE ANNUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATEFNQ STATISTICAL DIVISION 1989 TO 2010 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS labour force data.

  9. AVERAGE ANNUAL EMPLOYEDFNQ STATISTICAL DIVISION 1989 TO 2010 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS labour force data.

  10. TWO YEAR LAG Source: Cummings Economics from ABS population & labour force data.

  11. Number DWELLING APPROVALSFar North Queensland Statistical Division Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

  12. WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS SSD-URP Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Census data.

  13. ESTIMATED INCOME OF ‘BASE INDUSTRIES’EARNING INCOME FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION (1) Source: Cummings Economics from various sources.

  14. % YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH IN PASSENGER NUMBERS CAIRNS AIRPORT PILOTS DISPUTE ASIAN CRISIS ANSETT COLLAPSE Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

  15. ESTIMATED TOURISM EXPENDITURE FNQ Source: Cummings Economics from Tourism Research Australia, NVS & IVS data.

  16. GROSS VALUE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION(LONG TERM GROWTH 1982/83 TO 2009/10) Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

  17. $M VALUE OF MINING FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND PRODUCTION VALUES SALE VALUES Source: Cummings Economics from Queensland Mines & Energy data (DEEDI).

  18. WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Census data.

  19. CURRENT SITUATION • CONSISTENTLY HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE • LOW POPULATION GROWTH • LOW PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION • LOW CONSUMER SPENDING • PROPERTY PRICES DOWN • SHARE MARKETS DOWN • INTERNATIONAL UNCERTAINTY GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT $12BN 1% GROWTH NEEDS $120M

  20. WORLD ECONOMY CHANGED HIGH DOLLAR SUPPRESSING TOURISM MASSIVE DEMAND CHINA & INDIA • MINERALS / ENERGY • BASIC AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES REGION’S POTENTIAL?

  21. MINING

  22. AGRICULTURE • REAL LONG TERM GROWTH 2-3% PA • TOTAL INCLUDING POST FARM GATE $1.7BN • HINTERLAND POPULATION 2010

  23. AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL MEASURES OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.

  24. AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL MEASURES OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.

  25. Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data. VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (FARM GATE)

  26. INFRASTRUCTURE UPGRADING ROAD RAIL SEAPORTS POWER GRID WATER STORAGE / IRRIGATION

  27. TURNAROUND FORCES

  28. CAIRNS CAN RETURN TO STRONG GROWTH AND PROSPERITY BUT SOME CHANGES IN ATTITUDE NEEDED RECOGNITION THAT THE WORLD ECONOMY HAS CHANGED

  29. MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES www.cummings.net.au WS (Bill) Cummings ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN A CHANGED GLOBAL ECONOMY PRESENTATION TO Ref: J2478 | August 2011

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