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Understanding Multi-Year North American Droughts: Causes and Predictability

Investigating causes of past/current droughts & their relation to global warming. Assessing predictability using simulations & satellite data.

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Understanding Multi-Year North American Droughts: Causes and Predictability

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  1. Project Title: On the Causes and Predictability of Multi-Year North American Droughts Principal Investigator: Siegfried Schubert Science issue: To better understand the causes of past and current droughts, including the potential impact of global warming, and to assess the predictability of droughts. Approach: Carry out C20C simulations as well as idealized SST experiments to assess impact of the different ocean basins, soil moisture feedbacks, and vegetation changes on drought. Off-line LSM simulations to assess drought conditions. Satellite-based data: GPCP, CMAP, MODIS, TRMM Models: NSIPP-1 and GEOS-5 AGCM, GLDAS with Mosaic. Analyses: NCEP R1, ERA40, JRA25, MERRA Study Period: 1900-present, warming scenarios, focus on satellite era. • Project status: • Year 1 & 2 major finding –improved understanding of potential predictability of droughts in US Great Plains*, quantified impacts of the different ocean basins on US drought • Year 3 (now) – focus on isolating different time scales and model dependence • Year 4&5 - focus on high resolution simulations and impact of extreme weather events on drought, role of global warming • * Schubert, S.D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2007: Potential Predictability of Long-term Drought and Pluvial Conditions in the United States Great Plains. Accepted for publication in JCLIM. NEWS linkages: (pull, push, collaborate, external) Collaborate with other members of NEWS team – analysis of AMIP simulations and atmosphere-land-ocean coupled model hindcasts for Integration project #2 Contribute to the USCLIVAR drought working group Contribute to NIDIS activities - prediction and monitoring Major drought conditions reduced drought conditions reduced pluvial conditions Pluvial conditions Top panels are the AGCM’s precipitation response to cold tropical Pacific and warm tropical Atlantic SSTs . Bottom panels are the response to warm tropical Pacific and cold tropical Atlantic SSTs. Right panels are for runs in which the land-atmosphere feedbacks are disabled. S. Schubert, Updated: November 2, 2007

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