Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Transportation Issues Overview

1. A Summary ofTransportation Issues Rhode Island GHG Process - Phase V Stakeholder - Meeting 3 June 15, 2006 410-569-0599 www.meszler.com

2. Transportation GHG by Fuel (Combustion Only) Page 2

3. Transportation GHG by Source (Combustion Only) Page 3

4. Status of 2002 Plan Issues • High Priority, In-State Options: • Option 18: Feebate(originally estimated at 2% reduction in transportation carbon, used as “compliance lever” at over 8% in plan). Considerable development effort, but under reconsideration due to adopted California greenhouse standards (not in 2002 plan). • Option 19: TOD/Enhanced Transit(estimated at about 1% reduction in transportation carbon). Still under development. • Option 20: Expand Bicycle/Pedestrian Facilities(estimated at about 1% reduction in transportation carbon). Not addressed yet? • Option 21: Commuting Efficiency Program(carpools, preferential parking, park & ride, transit subsidies, ride home, etc. -- estimated at about 1% reduction in transportation carbon). Not addressed yet? Page 4

5. Status of 2002 Plan Issues • High Priority, In-State Options (continued): • Option 22: Telecommuting/Trip Reduction(flextime, work at home, etc.) -- estimated at about 1% reduction in transportation carbon). Not addressed yet? • Option 23: Government/Private Fleet Efficiency Initiative(government alone estimated at <0.2% reduction in transportation carbon). Executive Order issued for government, private fleet reconsideration? • Lower Priority, In-State Options • Option 35: Fleet Fuel GHG Standards(estimated at about 2% reduction in transportation carbon). Not addressed yet? Page 5

6. Status of 2002 Plan Issues • Non-Consensus, In-State Options: • Option 47: Increase Gas Tax(estimated at about 2% reduction in transportation carbon for unspecified tax increase, originally modeled at about 10% reduction for $0.50 increase). Some discussion, but generally viewed as unlikely. • Consensus, Regional/National Options: • Option 49: Increase CAFE Standards(estimated at about 17% reduction in transportation carbon for a standard approaching 50 mpg, a very aggressive standard). No ability to implement, but recently implemented and proposed increases in light truck CAFE will produce reductions about 20% as large as those of the adopted California low emission vehicle and greenhouse gas standards. Page 6

7. Status of 2002 Plan Issues • Consensus, Priority Study Options: • Option 51: VMT-Based Insurance(estimated at about 7% reduction in transportation carbon). Some discussion and presentations from insurance executives; would require significant coordination with insurance regulators; continuing to monitor industry progress. • Option 52: Transportation Planning for Low GHG(no reduction estimate). Intended to introduce GHG considerations into the transportation planning process (e.g., smart growth). No further study through the GHG Process. Page 7

8. Transportation GHG Focus • Only onroad light duty efficiency is currently measured. • Corresponds closely with onroad gasoline vehicles, which are responsible for about 73% of total RI GHG. • Primary focus on this area is, therefore, warranted. • Control options that do not rely on a measured efficiency value, or base efficiency on surrogate fuel use and activity estimates, can target other GHG sources. • Onroad diesel (i.e., larger) vehicles contribute about 8% of GHG. • Nonroad diesel about 4%; nonroad gasoline about 3%. • Commercial and other jet aircraft contribute about 11%. Page 8

9. Potential Further Options • California greenhouse gas standards are overwhelmingly more effective than any other option -- 25% reduction in gasoline GHG -- ADOPTED. • Feebate (or something similar) can provide a continuing economic incentive to select low GHG vehicles. • Rebates, tax credits, penalties, etc. could all garner partial feebate benefits. • CAFE standards still “out-of-reach” to state regulators due to federal pre-emption. Page 9

10. Potential Further Options • Gas tax increase still unlikely, especially given recent steep increase in gas prices. • However, these price increases should have accomplished GHG reductions as large as (or larger) than those forecasted for an increased tax. • Actual impact has not yet been calculated, but historic gasoline sales data provides the means. • Once calculated, future baseline emissions levels should be adjusted to reflect the impact of the price increases, so the net effect should be a (significant) shift toward the 2020 reduction target (alternatively, emission reductions could be credited as a control option). Page 10

11. Potential Further Options • Formalize (and enforce) an aggressive GHG-oriented (i.e., smart) growth policy. • Direct infill and brownfield development, ideally with a GHG offset requirement for other developers. • Adopt an open space protection policy. • Combine with a formalized TOD policy. • Long run, but ultimately significant benefits. Moreover, the only truly effective backbone to support a comprehensive transit policy. • Without a continuing and comprehensive GHG-oriented growth policy, all TOD, transit, and other mode shifting options will simply be small “victories” within a sprawling battlefield. Page 11

12. Potential Further Options • Advance transit capacity and convenience. • RIPTA has a clear and comprehensive vision for improving existing options and adopting new. • Developing bus hubs and improving fleet reliability. 20% increase in ridership between 2002 and 2005, but many routes at capacity. • Future enhancements could include expanded service, point deviation (pick-up/drop-off at a rider-selected location rather than a fixed stop), bus rapid transit (dedicated bus “paths,” similar to light rail but without tracks), street cars, and pedestrian connectors. • Stakeholder support could range from public promotion to funding to promotion of complementary development practices. • Thanks to Mark Therrien for his time and consideration in describing RIPTA’s vision for an effective transit future. Page 12

13. Potential Further Options • Impose lower (or enforce current) speed limit on interstate highways. Page 13

14. Potential Further Options • Improve traffic signal timing to reduce idling and maintain high efficiency flow. • See low speed emissions degradation on previous slide. • Potential VMT-rebound tradeoff, but any loss will be less than improvements due to idling reduction and improved operating efficiency. • Vehicle maintenance programs. • Proper engine tune, tire inflation, and lubricating oil, combined with a clean air filter can increase vehicle efficiency by up to 20%. • Implement through education, I/M enhancement, or new regulatory program? Page 14

15. Potential Further Options • Restrict vehicle idling. • DEM has a voluntary anti-idling program. • Current legislation (H7756) would require DEM to set mandatory idling limits for diesel engines by July 2007. • GHG benefits not quantified, will depend on level of enforcement. • Vehicle scrappage program. • Provide incentives to remove older, higher GHG vehicles from the fleet. • Implement through education, voluntary program, or regulation? Page 15

16. Potential Further Options • Consumer education (i.e., voluntary reductions). • How do I act green? What are the benefits? • VMT Reduction Incentives. • Other Incentives for Low GHG Vehicles. • Exemption from VMT restrictions (red/yellow/green program). Page 16

17. Potential Further Options • Revisit 2002 Plan Options. • Option 20: Bicycle/Pedestrian Facilities • Option 21: Commuting Efficiency Programs • Option 22: Telecommuting • Option 35: Fleet Fuel GHG Standard • Promote Alternative Fuel Production and Use. • Low carbon fossil fuels. • Biofuels offer both GHG and energy security benefits. Page 17

18. Potential Further Options • Is a fleet GHG standard feasible? (with tech & fuels, yes) Page 18

19. Potential Further Options • Freight Vehicles. • Efficient technology (e.g., aerodynamic improvements) does exist, but benefits would have to be tracked locally as no national effort to introduce technology forcing requirements is underway. • Retrofits can reduce “black carbon,” but overall carbon emissions are independent of aftertreatment. • Idle reduction/truck stop electrification. • Aircraft. • Improved runway management and/or single engine taxi. Page 19

20. Potential Further Options • Nonroad equipment. • Maintenance programs. • Promote electrification/alternative fuels. Page 20

21. Where Do We Go From Here? • How should we refocus the group given programs in place and work remaining to be done? • Are there additional options to be considered? • Low hanging fruit has been picked, but additional reductions are both possible and necessary. Page 21