ESP 209: Fall ‘07

1. ESP 209: Fall ‘07 Led by: Lisa Shaffer (lshaffer@ucsd.edu) Student Coordinators: Danny Richter (drichter@ucsd.edu) Meagan Moore (moore@ucsd.edu) Mitigation and Adaptation in a High CO2 World

2. An Introduction to Climate Change By Danny Richter

3. Mitigation and Adaptation

4. The System

5. Greenhouse Gases • IR adsorption (cause of “the greenhouse effect”) • Note that water is the most important • Note that the greenhouse gases fill in gaps • Vibration and rotation

6. CO2: 100 ppm increase in 150 years (~35% increase) Methane: ~21x CO2 ~1,000 ppb increase in 150 years (140%) N2O: (~310x CO2) ~ 50 ppb increase (~19%) Greenhouse Gases

7. Some Historical Context

8. Increasing Temperatures • How We Know • Satellites • Tree rings • Ice cores • Global Mean Temperature • A rise of ~0.7oC since Industrial revolution.

9. Increasing Sea Level • Sea level has risen ~1.5 cm since the start of the Industrial revolution • Caused by: • Thermal expansion • Glacial melting • How we know: • Tide gauges

10. How High Could Sea Level Rise? Table 1. Estimated potential maximum sea-level rise from the total melting of present-day glaciers. [Modified from Williams and Hall (1993). See also http://pubs.usgs.gov/factsheet/fs50-98/] table 1

11. Effect on U.S. Reduction of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets similar to past reductions would cause sea level to rise 10 or more meters. A sea-level rise of 10 meters would flood about 25 percent of the U.S. population, with the major impact being mostly on the people and infrastructures in the Gulf and East Coast States (fig. 3).

12. Effect Worldwide • Nearly one-quarter of the world's population lives below 100 feet above sea level • 100 ft = the size of the biggest surge during the 2004 tsunami. • That tsunami killed 230,000 people.

13. Effect Worldwide

14. Decreasing Ice • Annual average Arctic sea ice extent shrunk by 2.7 % per decade • Temperatures at the top of permafrost layer have generally increased since the 1980s by up to 3°C • The maximum area covered by seasonally frozen ground has decreased by about 7% in Northern Hemisphere since 1900, in spring of up to 15%.

15. Decreasing Ice Annual average Arctic sea ice extent shrunk by 2.7 % per decade See the change

16. Decreasing Ice • Ice loss to the sea currently accounts for virtually all of the sea-level rise that is not attributable to ocean warming • About 60% of the ice loss is from glaciers and ice caps rather than from the two ice sheets. • This acceleration of glacier melt may cause 0.1 to 0.25 meter of additional sea-level rise by 2100. • Meier, MF. 2007 Science (317), 1064-1067

17. Ocean Acidification • Basic chemical reaction: • CO2 + H2O -> H++HCO3- • Ocean is a sink for CO2 • A sink that is filling up

18. Ocean Acidification

19. A Question of Timescale

20. Direct Effects Atmospheric Composition Temperature Sea Level Ice Cover Indirect Effects Sea Level Biological impacts Water Supply Food Supply City Infrastructure Economic Shocks The Effects of Climate Change

21. Economic Shocks

22. Direct Effects Atmospheric Composition Temperature Sea Level Ice Cover Indirect Effects Sea Level Biological impacts Water Supply Food Supply City Infrastructure Economic Shocks Our Reaction! The Effects of Climate Change

23. Sequester Carbon? Build Green? Retool Economic Structures? Rethink Energy Supply? More Vigorous Conservation? Geoengineering? How To Mitigate Climate Change?

24. ChallengesAhead . . . 0.3 billion 1.3billion 1.1 billion

25. Questionsand Disucssion

26. Recent Climate driven by man and nature Swindled?

27. Sea Level Rise Curve for People Affected