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Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on seismicity simulation

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on seismicity simulation. Fred Pollitz, USGS Menlo Park. Acknowledgments: Bill Bakun, Yehuda Ben-Zion, Tom Hanks, David Schwartz. Ward (2000). Rundle et al. (2008). Capabilities of

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Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on seismicity simulation

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  1. Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on seismicity simulation Fred Pollitz, USGS Menlo Park Acknowledgments: Bill Bakun, Yehuda Ben-Zion, Tom Hanks, David Schwartz

  2. Ward (2000)

  3. Rundle et al. (2008)

  4. Capabilities of this simulator

  5. Inherently discrete fault zone (Ben-Zion and Rice model) • Homogeneous, planar faults • Viscoelasticity of lower crust/upper mantle --> loading through backslip in the fully relaxed limit

  6. This Study Virtual California (Rundle et al., 2004)

  7. Stress history on a single fault patch Static frictional stress Dynamic frictional stress Arrest stress Dynamic overshoot parameter: D = (ss - sa)/(ss - sd) Stress reduction parameter: Ds = ss - sa

  8. Hanks and Bakun (2007) D=1.1, Ds =7.5 MPa

  9. Magnitude-frequency statistics

  10. Single-segment ruptures log10 [earthquake production rate (yr-1)] magnitude

  11. Single and multi-segment ruptures log10 [earthquake production rate (yr-1)] magnitude

  12. Conditional rupture probability

  13. D=1.1 Ds =7.5 MPa M>6.7

  14. M>6.7

  15. Conclusions • Viscoelastic earthquake simulator is feasible • Fault system behavior is sensitive to simple parameters • Simulations capture Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic-earthquake behavior • Earthquake simulators can be used to estimate fault properties needed for PSHA: mean recurrence interval magnitude-frequency statistics coefficient of variation conditional rupture probability

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