Timeline of Iranian Politics

1. Timeline of Iranian Politics • 1941: Accession of Mohammed Reza Pahlavi • 1950: Mohammed Mossadiq becomes Prime Minister • 1953: Shah overthrows Mossadiq in a coup d’etat • 1963: Beginning of the White Revolution • 1979: Iranian Revolution led by liberal nationalists and alienated clerics; US hostage crisis begins • 1980-1988: Iran-Iraq war • 1989: Ayatollah Khomeini dies/President Khamenei becomes Supreme Leader • 1989: Ali Rafsanjani becomes President • 1997: Mohammed Khatami becomes President in a surprise upset (70% of vote) • 1999: Large-scale pro-democracy protests • 2000: Liberals win the majority of seats in the majlis elections; hardliners crack down on the media and civil society • 2001: Khatami wins a 2nd term by a landslide • 2004: Conservatives win control of parliament after most liberal candidates are rejected by the Council of Guardians • 2005: Ahmadinejad wins presidency, beating centrist Rafsanjani • 2009: Ahmadinejad wins presidency in a contested election, beating independent reformist candidate Mousavi • 2009-2010: Widespread protests at perceived electoral corruption: Green revolution begins

2. Revolution in Iran • Revolutionary forces in Iran • Protests were led by the ulema in 1963 under Khomeini and urban terrorist groups emerged • Shah became totally repressive after 1975; taking away autonomy of clerics and the bazaari merchants • Economy was in turmoil with rampant inflation from excessive oil spending • Opposition spoke out and was led by the Freedom movement in Iran (liberal) and militant ulema (conservative-revolutionary) • Militant ulema led by Ayatollah Khomeini pressed for rule by Islamic clerics • A cycle of religious protests, police violence, mourning protests, police violence, became more and more pronounced in 1978 • The shah left for Egypt in exile in 1979, and the Freedom Movement and Khomeini were left to fight it out; Khomeini eventually won

3. Anti-Americanism in Iran • Support for the shah • The CIA coup; support for the Shah’s repression • The hostage crisis • From 1979 to 1981; Iranians held US diplomats after taking over the embassy • Carter lost the election to Reagan; the hostages were released as a show of good will toward Reagan • The Iran-Contra scandal • US sold arms to its enemy Iran in the mid-1980s, to get help freeing American hostages held by the Lebanese Hizbullah • The earnings were illegally diverted to a rebel movement in Nicaragua, the Contras • The process of demonization • Anti-US rallies; US as the devil: “Death to America” becomes a popular slogan • America frames Iran as the center of the axis of evil

4. Key characters in Iranian politics • Former President Rafsanjani • Supreme Leader Ali Khameini • Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini • Current President • MahmoudAhmadinejad • Presidential Candidate • Mir-HosseinMousavi • Former President Khatami

5. Iranian political institutions • Dual nature of institutions: Secular and Religious parallels • Result of intense debates during the revolution about the constitution • Supreme leader (Faqih) • Ultimate veto power over most everything; vacillates between using it and not • Has strong appointment powers over the judiciary and the military • Like Plato’s philosopher-king; life term; elected by the Assembly of Experts • President • Strongest executive except for the faqih • Independently elected • Majlis • Contested and reasonably powerful legislative body • Council of Guardians • Designed to keep any legislation from violating the shari’a • Also vets political candidates; appointed directly or indirectly by the supreme leader • Has vetoed every single reform law passed by the majlis in recent years • Expediency Council • Designed to resolve conflicts between the Majlis and the Council of Guardians • In 2000, it allowed some Majlis legislation to pass over the Council, but is now very conservative

6. Elected and unelected institutions in Iran • The process of vetting who can run for election is • key to understanding how these institutions interact

7. Liberalism vs. clericalism in Iran • Political divisions • Political parties were illegal for a long time; still act as informal blocs • Groups of independent candidates (most of whom are clerics), who tend to ally with each other • Combatant clerics • Care deeply about maintaining political power; actively defend the Supreme Leader • Are conservative on key social and religious issues • Militant clerics • “Leftist” splinter from the combatant clerics; held considerable power in the government in the late 1980s • Have argued for more power to the majlis • Were shut out of government in the early 1990s, but did well in the 1997 elections supporting Khatami • Servants of Construction • Non-clerical group of technocrats formed in the mid-1990s • Fit somewhere between the two groups; supporters of the former President Rafsanjani • Supported Khatami in the 1997 elections

8. 2008 Iranian legislative election results • Independents 13% • Conservatives 67% • Religious Minorities 2% • Reformists 18% • Since Khatami, the majlis has seen a big shift towards the conservatives, in large part due to active vetting

9. The potential for political reform in Iran • Iran’s underlying liberal culture • Many Iranians resent strict control of the public sphere • Official ideology vs. public preferences • Challenges to the Iranian regime • Disillusionment of reformers after Khatami’s presidency • Reasons for Ahmadinejad’s political success: populism, economic redistribution • Centralization of power in the Council of Guardians and Revolutionary Guard • Most Iranians no longer remember the Shah • Fragmentation of elites over the direction of the revolution • The 2009 elections • Ahmadinejad faced a credible challenge in a new revolutionary reformer: Mousavi • Ahmadinejad officially won the election by 2/3 of the vote, but there was some fraud • Mobilization as part of the “Green Revolution” • Mousavi leads supporters in a campaign of popular protest: “where is my vote?” • Hundreds of thousands join in peaceful protests across Iran • Repression triggers further protests • Costs of mobilization become too high and the protests slow down

10. Images from the Green Revolution