IMPACTS OF PAST AND PRESENT CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY IN AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS OF ETHIOPIA

1. IMPACTS OF PAST AND PRESENT CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY IN AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS OF ETHIOPIA COUNTRY REPORT ABUHAY TAKELE AND TEWODROS MESFIN

2. AGRICULTURE IN ETHIOPIA • The agricultural sector in Ethiopia is the main economic stay • It directly supports about 85% of the population in terms of employment and livelihood • It contributes about 50% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). • It generates about 90% of the export earnings • Small-scale subsistent farmers dominate the production of crops • The sector is mainly rainfed, relies on relatively backward technologies. • Hence, production and productivity remains extremely low

3. AGRICULTURE IN ETHIOPIA Continued ……… • Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa and the tenth largest in the world. • Currently there are about 70 million heads of livestock • Livestock is well integrated with the farming systems found in the highlands and • provide the sole means of subsistence for the pastoralist in the lowlands

4. AGRICULTURE IN ETHIOPIA Continued ………….. Figure 2.4.1. Crop, livestock dependent population of Ethiopia (Source: DPPC, 2003)

5. Climate Classifications for Ethiopia • Very diversified climate ranging from hot and semi-desert to mild and humid • Characterized by the diversity in altitude accompanying climate and • ecological variations • The climate ranges from temperate on the plateau and hot in the lowlands

6. Fig. Climatic zones of Ethiopia Legend: Bwh- Hot Arid Climate Bsh- Hot Semi Arid Climate Bsk- Cool Dry Climate Aw- Tropical Climate (with distinct dry winter) Am- Tropical Monsoon Rainy Climate (with short dry season) Aws- Tropical Climate (criteria of both w & s are met) Cwb- Warm Temperature Rainy Climate (with dry winter) Cfb- Warm Temperature Rainy Climate (with out distinct dry season) Cws- Warm Temperate climate (criteria of both w & s are met) H- Cool Highland Climate

7. Rainfall Regimes of Ethiopia Legend 1-Region A – Single Maxima The wet period decrease northward - A1-June/July-August/September - A2-April/May-October/November - A3-February/March-October/November 2-Region B – Double Maxima Type 1 Small peak in April and maximum peak in august 3-Region C – Double maxima Type 2 Peaks in the month of April and October Fig. Rainfall patterns in Ethiopia. (Source: Federal DPPA, Early Warning Department, 2003; the boundaries are approximate and unofficial).

8. Rainfall Regimes of Ethiopia Continued………… • The country generally has two production seasons • - The mainseason contributes about 90% of the annual national • average crop production • - The remaining 10% comes from the short season • In the arid and semi-arid areas rainfall is torrential, erratic, variable, and of unreliable nature • - Rainfall amount is generally low ranging between 50 to about 800 mm • Temperature Regimes of Ethiopia • Mean annual temperature • - ranges from less than 150C over the highlands • - > 250C in the lowlands. • Evapo-transpiration rates are high ranging from 1400 to 2900 mm

9. CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATIC EXTREMES AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN ETHIOPIA • Climate change is defined as: • According to IPCC (2001), climate change refers to any change in climate over time whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. • According to UNFCCC (2001), climate change refers to a change in climate that is attributable directly or indirectly to human activity that alters atmospheric composition. • In general, climate change refers to changes in long-term trends in the average climate, such as changes in average temperatures and rainfall. • Climate Variabilityrefers to • changes in patterns, such as rainfall, weather and climate

10. Annual Rainfall Variability in Ethiopia For the highly rainfall dependent Ethiopian Agriculture • The startand end of the rains • Their patterns of distribution • The length, • Frequency and probability of dry spells in the growing season are • key elements affecting planning, performance, and management of • agricultural operations • Because unusual rainfall amounts and distributions usually lead to poor harvest and/or complete crop failure • shortage of pasture and animal feeds

11. Figure: Relationship between annual total rainfall and its coefficient of variation over 92 selected dryland locations in Ethiopia

12. Long-term Trends of Rainfall and Temperature in Ethiopia • Rainfall analysis for the central highlands of Ethiopia • - extreme variability of rainfall and a general decreasing trend • - positive rainfall deviations from the long-term mean in the first of the century • - negative deviations in the second half of the 20th century • -

13. Figure: Long-term summer rainfall time series of the central highlands of Ethiopia (1898-1997)

14. Figure: Departure of long-term summer rainfall from its long-term average in the central Ethiopian highlands • The positive departures observed during the first half of the 20th century are highly pronounced in the first three decades • The second half of the 20th century suffered predominantly negative rainfall deviations, with summer values frequently lower than the long-term average

15. Long-term Trends Continued……………….. • Recent vulnerability assessment studies predicted decrease in rainfall over the northern parts of Ethiopia • An investigation with three global climate models also indicated a risk of more frequent droughts under climate change (Board and Agrawala, 2000) • There has been a warming trend in temperature over the past 50 years • The average annual minimum temperature • - about 0.25 0C every ten years • average annual maximum temperature • - increasing by about 0.10C every decade

16. The Frequency of Drought in Ethiopia Table: Frequency of occurrences of drought events in Ethiopia (Source: NMSA, 1987)

17. Climate Change Projections • Simulation of future climate for 2030 and 2050 by • - Canadian Climate Center Model, CCCM • - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model, GFDL • - United Kingdom Meteorological Office-1989 model, • UKMO- 89 • - GFDL-Transient Models • Indicated In temperature Rainfall • There will be an increase of temperature by 1.0 and 2.0oC • a decrease of rainfall by about 1 and 2% in 2030 and 2050,

18. Records of Natural Disasters, and Climate Change Related Extremes Table 3.7.2. Top 10 Natural Disasters in Ethiopia sorted by total number of people affected Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net

19. Table: Top 10 Natural Disasters in Ethiopia sorted by economic damage costs Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net

20. Flood Extremes • Flood is also a common problem and occurs in lowlands where rivers flow over the gentle slopes with higher volume of water from highlands • Flooding caused by heavy rainfall and river overflowing has regularly affected people and their property • - low lying areas of Somali • - Afar • - Gamella, • - Oromiya, • - Amhara and • - Southern regional states

21. Frost Extremes Extremely cold temperatures are becoming common in the highland areas of the country Figure: Farmer clear frost killed Chata edulis plantation (left) and a frost attacked tree (right), January 2005 at Haramaya, Ethiopia, (Source, AU, 2005)

22. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN ETHIOPIA • Agriculture is the most important sector in the economy of Ethiopia • It represents 47% of the country’s GDP, • contributs about 80% of the total export value • and employs 85% of the population • Agriculture is mostly subsistence in nature with a high dependence on rainfall (over 95%). • As a result, Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate variability, seasonal shifts, and precipitation patterns

23. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY Continued………………….. • The general impacts of climate change on agriculture include • Natural resource degradation (Reduction in soil fertility etc); • Increasing variability in growing season conditions (shifts in start of rainy seasons, length and quality of rains, etc); • Decreased livestock productivity directly (through higher temperatures) and indirectly (through changes in the availability of feed and fodder); • Deceased crop yield and in extreme cases total crop failure • Increased incidence of pest attacks resulting from high temperature; • Manifestation of vector and vector born diseases; and • Negative impacts on human health affecting human resource availability

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