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Agricultural impacts of climate in Mexico and Argentina. Cecilia Conde, Roberto Seiler, Marta Vinocur. LA - 29. MEXICO Central Region. Veracruz. Climatic Events. Veracruz. Eakin,H. Coffee T,Pcp requirements. Risk space . Veracruz. MAM. Risk space . Veracruz. JJA.
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Agricultural impacts of climate in Mexico and Argentina. Cecilia Conde, Roberto Seiler, Marta Vinocur. LA - 29
Climatic Events. Veracruz Eakin,H.
Season CCC GFDL T Pcp T Pcp Winter + - + + Spring + - + - Summer + - + + Autumn + + + + Climate & Coffee Production Changes.Downscaling model Palma, 2004
Equation for Coffee ProductionMexico. 1969 – 1998. Coffee Production = - k1 + k2 (T summer) – k3 (T summer)2 + k4 (Pcp Spring) + k5Twinter + k6 (T Winter)2 + k7 (Minimum Wagesummer) Est. Real Gay, Estrada, Conde, Eakin, Villers
Cafe2. Effects of summer temperature on coffee production. Gay, Estrada, Conde, Eakin, Villers
Córdoba Province Argentina Study area
Climatic Risk in Southern Córdoba • FARMERS’ Perceptions • Droughts • Hailstorms • Floods
Changes in Drought Risk. Córdoba 2050 Scenario. ECHAM, A2. 1961 -1990
Conclusions • Risk spaces are a useful tool to identify: • Climate variability and extreme weather events, which strongly affect agricultural production • Climate change conditions that might open windows of opportunities in some regions, • Climate change conditions that might severily affect agricultural production • In any case, it is still an open question how changes in future varibility will affect agricultural production.