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NCEP's Support for the Reanalysis Project: Where America's Climate and Weather Services Begin

This presentation discusses NCEP's role in providing climate, weather, and water services, as well as the benefits of reanalysis for weather, water, and climate forecasts and assessments. It also highlights the seamless suite of forecast products and the use of observations and models in improving predictions. The importance of resolution, data assimilation, and continuous improvement is emphasized.

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NCEP's Support for the Reanalysis Project: Where America's Climate and Weather Services Begin

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  1. NCEP’s Support for the Reanalysis Project “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini NCEP Director Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System Boulder, CO August 18, 2003

  2. Overview • NCEP’s Role in Providing Climate, Weather, Water Services • NWS Seamless Suite of Products • Reanalysis and its Application to Climate, Weather, Water: from Forecasts to Observations

  3. What NOAA Does For Weather, Water and Climate • Produce Weather, Water and Climate Observations, Forecasts and Warnings • For All Americans • To Protect Life and Property • To Enhance the National Economy • Improve Services Through Integrated Research and Development • Provide Data* and Products • Government Agencies • Private Sector • The Public • Global Communities * (Satellites, Radar, Buoys, Aircraft, Ships, Etc.)

  4. Outlook Years Seasons Guidance Months Threats Assessments 2 Week Forecast Lead Time 1 Week Forecasts Days Watches Hours Warnings & Alert Coordination Minutes Benefits Energy Health Reservoir Control Space Operation State/Local Planning Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation Linking Climate and Weather: Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Forecast Uncertainty

  5. Central Guidance Local Offices The Path to Delivering NOAA’s Seamless Suite of NWS Products and Forecasts Observe Process Products & Forecast Services Respond & Feedback Distribute IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback

  6. Reanalysis • Can be applied to • Observations • Weather/Water Applications • Climate Assessment and Forecasts

  7. Observations Issues • Combine In-situ and Remotely Sensed Observations onto a unified “grid” for easy application • A key aspect of the reanalysis • Have to address the change in remotely sensed data (e.g., satellites pre- and post- 1979) • Have to accommodate other data in modeling systems (e.g., radar)

  8. Weather-Water Applications • Reanalyses are being used as a basis for re-energizing synoptic climatology • Applied to most intense NE snowstorms over the past 50 years (Kocin and Uccellini) • “old” reanalysis – T62/L28 • “select” reanalysis – T254/L64 • Resolution is critically important for accurate analysis

  9. “Old” Reanalysis

  10. “New” Reanalysis

  11. “Old” Reanalysis

  12. “New” Reanalysis

  13. Climate Applications • Important for Climate Assessments • Verification/calibration: for climate prediction • Used for development of improved operational climate model • Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere system • NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS) atmospheric model • 200 km resolution, 64 levels, model top 0.2 mb • MOM3 ocean model (GFDL) • Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) • 100 km resolution, 40 levels

  14. Simulation of the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Surface System and Hindcast Skill in SST Prediction with the New Coupled NCEP Ocean-Atmosphere Model Suranjana Saha*, Wanqiu Wang*, Hua-Lu Pan* and Huug van den Dool** *Environmental Modeling Center **Climate Prediction Center NCEP, NWS, NOAA

  15. Coupled Model Simulation ENSO SST cycles Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies Simulated 2002-2040 (top) Observed 1965-2003 (bottom)

  16. Coupled Model Simulation SST Interannual Variability Observed 28 Level Atm 64 Level Atm

  17. Examples of ENSO events Simulated El Nino 2015-2016 Simulated La Nina 2017-18 Real El Nino 1982-1983 Real La Nina 1988-1989

  18. Initial States Amip – long model run Reanl2 – reanalysis Casst – constructed analog (emp. Tool) Cmp14 – operational

  19. Initial States Amip – long model run Reanl2 – reanalysis Casst – constructed analog (emp. Tool) Cmp14 – operational

  20. Summary • Reanalysis is important for weather, water, climate: • Observations • Assessment • Prediction • Continuous improvement is required • Physics, resolution, observations used • Increasingly applied to synoptic climatological studies • Will be used to “calibrate” and “validate” next generation’s unified numerical prediction system at NCEP (based on ESMF)

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