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Space, Relativity, and Uncertainty in Ecosystem Assessment of Everglades Restoration Scenarios

Space, Relativity, and Uncertainty in Ecosystem Assessment of Everglades Restoration Scenarios. Michael M. Fuller, Louis J. Gross, Scott M. Duke-Sylvester, and Mark Palmer. Relative Assessment of Management Scenarios. Background and Need. General Approach to Scenario Comparison.

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Space, Relativity, and Uncertainty in Ecosystem Assessment of Everglades Restoration Scenarios

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  1. Space, Relativity, and Uncertainty in Ecosystem Assessment of Everglades Restoration Scenarios Michael M. Fuller, Louis J. Gross, Scott M. Duke-Sylvester, and Mark Palmer

  2. Relative Assessment of Management Scenarios Background and Need General Approach to Scenario Comparison Specific Example: Everglades Restudy Area Multi-Species Approach Methodology Results of Analysis Summary & Conclusions

  3. Problem: Natural systems are complex; Uncertainty is high Solution: use models to: Better understand natural systems. Forecast future state of system. Test sensitivity of system to different variables. Balancing the needs of multiple stakeholders Policy decisions based on inputs from: • Urban Resource Agencies (water districts, air quality depts, etc) • Farmers and Industry (fisheries, timber companies, etc). • Conservation Organizations (Audubon, NRDC, etc.) • Governing Bodies (municipal, county, state, federal - politcal) • Natural Area Managers (National Parks, etc)

  4. EXAMPLE: SESI Model Alligator & Everglades Hydrology • Spatially Explicit Species Index • Reproduction: nesting, mating • Many parameters • Many potential sources of error • Several alternative hydrology plans Models can have complex structure

  5. Scenario Analysis Evaluate variation in input data or parameter settings Investigate changes in conditions or environmental impacts. Predict effects of alternative management plans. Incorporate uncertainty into analyses using hypothetical data SA used to rank alternative management plans.

  6. Scenario Analysis Evaluate variation in input data or parameter settings Investigate changes in conditions or environmental impacts. PROJECT (forecast) effects of alternative management plans. Incorporate uncertainty into analyses using hypothetical data SA used to rank alternative management plans.

  7. SA assumes that interactions between model components, and error propagation, is similar for different scenarios, Uncertainty in how models respond to alternative scenarios can expose policy decisions to unexpected system behavior. How can we reduce uncertainty?

  8. Comparison requires a specific assessment criterion A metric for ranking alternatives in order of preference Relative Assessment A tool for testing the assumptions about model behavior. Does rank order of management plan change with different Input data or parameter scenarios? Reduce uncertainty of model behavior

  9. Using relative assessment for Everglades Restoration • Compare alternative hydrology plans under consideration. • Vary the input data and parameter settings. • Does rank order of alternatives change? General Approach • Scenario analysis used to rank alternatives • Relative assessment to reduce uncertainty. • Multi-species comparison.

  10. Study System Central and South Florida Project Comprehensive Review Study Three natural areas in southern Florida: • Everglades National Park • Big Cypress • Restudy area Two management alternatives: F2050 & D13R F2050 = Baseline

  11. Study System 4 Species + 2 wading bird guilds Assessment Criterion ATLSS Spatially Explicit Index Models

  12. Species and Geographic Subregions

  13. Constructing Alligator Nest Parameter Scenarios Average over space & time

  14. Constructing Climate I Data Average over space & time All species groups. Criterion: SESI Value Difference between F2050 & D13R

  15. Constructing Climate II Data Comparison for all species groups. Criterion: SESI Value D = F2050 - D13R Difference between F2050 & D13R Baseline Data: 30 year historic pattern. Experimental Data Simulate 30 years of water level data. 1) Increase rainfall by 25 percent 2) Decrease rainfall by 25 percent

  16. Summary of Scenarios and Treatments

  17. Effect of Random Variation in Model Parameters D = F2050 - D13R No rank reversals

  18. D13R Climate Change Effects Criterion: SESI Value Difference between F2050 & D13R D > 0 D < 0 For each species: F2050 D = F2050 - D13R Baseline Increase level Decrease level D = 0 (No difference)

  19. Effect of Simulated Climate on Scenario Ranking

  20. Effect of Simulated Climate Shift on Scenario Ranking

  21. Summary of Effect on Rank Order of Hydrologic Scenarios American Alligator Substantial variation in parameters = no reversals in rank order All Species Groups Substantial variation in rainfall pattern = reversals in rank order

  22. Recap General Approach • Compare alternative hydrology plans. • Randomly vary nesting parameters (alligator). • Construct hypothetical climate patterns from historic data. • Compare rank order of alternatives. Results • Alligator SESI not affected by parameter variation • Change in climate patterns caused some rank reversals. Summary • Scenario analysis useful for ranking alternatives • Relative assessment helps reduce uncertainty.

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