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The Future of Broadband Daniel Ballon Pacific Research Institute

This article explores the future of broadband, discussing key factors such as investment, competition, and new innovations. It highlights the increasing demand for high-definition video-on-demand, internet TV, video conferencing, telemedicine, virtual worlds, online gaming, and cloud computing. The article also examines the advancements in cable and DOCSIS 3.0, FTTx technologies, 4G wireless networks, and satellite internet. It emphasizes the importance of consistent regulation and avoiding subsidies to ensure fair competition and sustainable growth in the broadband industry.

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The Future of Broadband Daniel Ballon Pacific Research Institute

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  1. The Future of Broadband Daniel Ballon Pacific Research Institute Broadband Summit: Connecting America FCC-NARUC Joint Conference on Advanced Services November 6, 2008

  2. A Brief History of Broadband Access Speed (Mbps) Data provided by Link Hoewing/Verizon

  3. Innovation Demand Broadband Investment Broadband Adoption Innovation Drives Broadband Growth Pew Internet, Home Broadband Adoption 2008

  4. Investment is Limiting Factor Today • Net neutrality debate is good news for broadband • YouTube consumes more bandwidth today than the entire Internet in 2000 May 7, 1997: WWW = World Wide Wait “The average Internet user in America spends 25 hours a year waiting for web sites to download.” ─Former FCC Chairman William Kennard, February 8, 2000 “We confront a dynamic marketplace, characterized by rapid changes in technology, a new business alignment with every passing day, and lightening-speed changes in the flow of capital.”  ─Former FCC Commissioner Susan Ness, January 20, 1999

  5. Investment Today is Strong Total Investment in Communications Equipment (Billions) Cumulative Cable Infrastructure Investment (Billions) Jeffrey Eisenach, Broadband Policy: Does the U.S. Have it Right After All? Progress and Freedom Foundation “We should conceptualize broadband capability as a function that can ride on many different electronic platforms. Broadband is not a copper wire. It is not a coaxial cable. It is not a wireless channel. It is all of these things. The capability can ride on many platforms (and should) in order to tailor solutions to consumer patterns and interests.” ─ Former FCC Chairman Michael Powell, October 25, 2001

  6. Thriving Broadband Competition Fifth FCC Report on Advanced Telecommunications, June 12, 2008 NOTE: As of March 19, 2008, the minimum “broadband” connection speed was raised to 768 Kbps • Only 0.1% of zip codes have no broadband providers • 89% of zip codes have more than four broadband providers • 23% of zip codes have more than ten broadband providers

  7. Explosion in Bandwidth Appetite Cisco Global Internet Traffic Forecast Informa Telecoms Mobile Forecast

  8. New Innovations Will Drive Future Broadband Growth 1) High Definition Video-on-Demand Requirement = 10 Mbps Customer base for streaming HD VoD will expand 7-fold in 5 years (~30% of all households)

  9. New Innovations Will Drive Future Broadband Growth 2) Internet TV Source: iSuppli, May 2007 Source: Ipsos Insight, May 2008

  10. New Innovations Will Drive Future Broadband Growth 3) Video Conferencing Three Waves of Internet Traffic Growth Cisco, 2008 Cisco, 2008 1964 2008 Bell Labs CNET, Inc.

  11. New Innovations Will Drive Future Broadband Growth 4) Telemedicine 5) Virtual Worlds 6) Online Gaming 7) Cloud Computing

  12. Broadband Innovation: Cable & DOCSIS 3.0 Data Over Cable Service Interface Specifications (DOCSIS) Cable360.net ARRIS Group DOCSIS Progression Bandwidth (Mbps) DOCSIS 1.0 DOCSIS 1.1 DOCSIS 2.0 DOCSIS 3.0

  13. Broadband Innovation: Cable & DOCSIS 3.0 Cable Industry Infrastructure Expenditures Cable Broadband Availability $ (Billions) % U.S. Households Cable Broadband Customers Customers (Million) Source: NCTA

  14. Broadband Innovation: FTTx Verizon FiOS BPON Downstream: 622 Mbps Upstream: 155 Mbps GPON Downstream: 2.5 Gbps Upstream: 1.5 Gbps AT&T U-Verse Downstream: 25-37 Mbps Upstream: 6 Mbps

  15. Broadband Innovation: FTTx FTTH Penetration Verizon FiOS Customers (Million) Verizon RVA Research AT&T U-verse FTTN AT&T

  16. Broadband Innovation: 4G Wireless Networks Evolution of Wireless Technologies Orthogonal Frequency-Division Multiplexing 2010 50 Mbps-1 Gbps 60 Kbps-54 Mbps 2005 20 Kbps-171 Kbps 2000 10 Kbps-40 Kbps 1995 IEC Data Transmission Speeds (Mbps) WiMAX Backers LTE Backers

  17. Broadband Innovation: 4G Wireless Networks

  18. Broadband Innovation: Satellite Internet? O3b Networks The Kizuna Satellite

  19. Conclusions • The future of broadband looks bright • Abundant innovation in both content and delivery • The U.S. is leading the way in many future technologies • Multiple technologies in direct competition • Important not to give unfair advantages through inconsistent regulation • Important not to pick winners through subsidies

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