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Toward the Future

Toward the Future. Wiarda. Comp Pol trends. follow elite & public opinion so expect a lot more on post-comm? Positive developments rekindle interest Africa more attention after democratization. Tradition. legal-formal-descriptive

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Toward the Future

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  1. Toward the Future Wiarda

  2. Comp Pol trends • follow elite & public opinion • so expect a lot more on post-comm? • Positive developments rekindle interest • Africa more attention after democratization

  3. Tradition • legal-formal-descriptive • analytical aspirations joined with need to explain superiority of democracy over communism and interest in newly independent nations

  4. Biases • Anti Fascist • Fear of totalitarianism • Self-love of capitalism

  5. Pol Dev: the fall • more familiar now with critique • ethnocentric • 1st world unique • dependency • traditional soc still valid • false expectations • methodology • Huntington & Vietnam!

  6. New strands • Corporatism • Political Economy • Indigenous • BA regimes: partial account • Pol Culture now reviving

  7. Pol Dev revival? • 3 decades of experience • democ, pluralism, stability, rep. Govt, blend state reg & open economies, social modernization [239] • [Is this what works or what we want to work?!] • Communism unattractive

  8. Development • Democracy & middle class • economic development is correlating better now than in 60s

  9. Tasks • Abandon search for single theory • Work in sub-fields on projects • Develop islands of theory at middle range • Build bridges • state-society & public policy • IPE re socialist & capitalist economies • coporatism and dependency

  10. Huntington: “Will more countries become democratic?”PSQ 1984 • Greatest potential BA Latin America • Argentina & Chile “polarizing” • Prospects better in Brazil • Islamic Low • Africa low • “Likelihood of democ devlpt in E Europe is virtually nil”

  11. Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 • Wave 1: 1848 etc in Europe • First reverse wave: fascism • Wave 2: Post WWII effects in 3W • Second reverse wave of auth in late 60s & 70s • 3rd wave movements • most actively pursued by urban middle class

  12. Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 • Combination of substantial econ dev and short term econ crisis most likely to lead to shift from auth to democ govt • Demonstration effects • More important in 3rd wave than first two due to expansion in global communications

  13. Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 • Transformation: when elites took lead • ~16/35 3rd wave transitions • e.g. Spain, Brazil, Hungary • Replacement: opposition groups took lead • 6/35 (3/7 changes from personal dictatorships) • Greece, Argentina, Philippines, Portugal, Romania, East Germany

  14. Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 • Transplacement: when democ occurred due to joint action by govt and opposition • ~11/35 • Poland, Czech, Uruguay, Korea • also some role in Bolivia, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua

  15. Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? Predictions • 1st efforts often fail and 2nd succeed • elections vehicle and goal • Tied to economic performance? • Conditional on external aid?

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